Introduction
Upcoming elections in the United States of America will be conducted on November 6, 2012. The current posts set apart for the Republicans are 10 whereas Democrats have two independents and 21 positions. The expected presidential candidates are Baraka Obama, the current President of the United States of America representing Democrats and Mitt Romney, representing the Republicans. The Democratic Party was formed before the U.S. gained independence from the British by anti-federalist factions. James Madison, Thomas Jefferson, and other people who were opposed to federal system organized factions into Democrat-Republican Party in 1972. The Republican Party was formed by modernizers and anti-slavery activists in 1854. The party became famous after election of Abraham Lincoln, the first Republican President in the United States of America (Von Drehle, 2012).
Republicans versus Democrats
According to Von Drehle (2012), information gathered in the U.S. indicates that the Republicans stand a higher chance of benefiting from the upcoming elections than the Democrats. The majority of American citizens is not satisfied with the work of President Obama and wishes to have a change in the presidency. For instance, only 28% of the population says that they have realized positive changes within the last four years of Obama’s leadership. Moreover, most of the serving parties in Greece, Britain, Spain, France and Italy have been thrown out of power. John Fund, a conservative commentator, stated in the National Review that Democrats are worried about their fate in the forthcoming elections.
Economy
A major issue making American citizens lose faith in Obama’s leadership is the economy of the country. Studies have shown that 60% of the population disapproves the procedure through which Obama has handled the economy of the country. In an interview conducted through television, Obama said that he did not deserve a complete grade in development of the economy. This shows that he is also aware of not giving the citizens the best as far as the economy is concerned. The issue of the economy is very crucial during the election and a major determinant of the person to be elected. Cary Covington, a tutor of Political Science at Iowa University argued that the economy is the most important issue during each election. The recent development of the economy is very poor and slow. This issue is likely to affect President Obama’s influence in the next elections because citizens have not realized the change President Obama promised during the last election (Crowley, 2012).
Crowley (2012) argues that the Democrats and Republicans have different views on the issue of economy. The Democrats value free market as well as taxation and distribution of wealth to the poor and middle class from the rich. This includes small businesses, which provide employment opportunities to the largest population in the United States of America. On the other hand, Republicans hold that hard work is the only way through which the poor and middle class can improve their standards. President Obama, Clinton, and other democrats hold that taxes should be increased to cater for the needs of the government. Republicans hold Arthur Laffer and President Reagan’s view that tax reduction increases revenue and promotes growth of the country. The issue of protectionism or free trade causes major differences between the two groups. The issue whether the United States of America should protect its jobs through pursuing a mercantilist policy like China or operate a free economy and concentrate on developing competitive strategies remains a controversial issue in the country. The Republicans hold that free trade increases wealth in the society whereas Democrats are concerned with protecting the welfare of workers in the United States of America.
Unemployment
On the issue of unemployment, Democrats prefer a fiscal stimulus whereas the Republicans prefer the monetary stimulus. A close examination of the economy of the United States indicates that government expenditure is higher than income. The cost of items such as rental equipments, cars, groceries, gas, and diapers among other items has doubled within the last eight years. This situation hinders Americans from leading a happy life because despite their hard work, their earnings are not enough to cater for their needs and bills fully. The effects of the economy are felt by the people at the grass root level because they bear the burden of purchasing goods at high costs. Questions arising from this might be the causes of deterioration of the economy. The most important thing is to examine the source of problems in the economy and find solutions. The upcoming elections will be concerned with tracing and finding solutions to problems affecting the country. Because of different views concerning improvement of the economy of the country between Democrats and Republicans, Americans are willing to have a change in leadership (Erikson, Wlezien & Erickson, 2012).
Negative Campaigns and Advertisements
Recently, advertisements aimed at painting a negative picture of President Obama have been aired in many states by the Republican Super PACs and Conservatives. These advertisements have damaged the image of President Obama in most of the countries. Although the chief pollster of President Obama, Joel Benenson, dismisses these advertisements as false and negative campaigns against the President, he admits that the opposition side is spending much money is gaining popularity throughout the states. The Democrats are worried about losing the votes of baby boomers in the major states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Florida. The majority of the elderly aged above 65 years support Romney rather than President Obama. This is the group creating the gap between President Obama and Romney. A recent poll conducted by CNN in Florida indicated that Romney is supported by 51% of elderly men whereas President Obama is supported by 45%. Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster, stated that President Obama differs with the elderly, especially white seniors. She said that Romney’s advertisements and campaigns against President Obama on the issue of requirements at work have destroyed his image on White seniors. This is the reason that the majority are in favor of Romney (Brownstein, 2012).
The Role of women in the 2012 Elections
Celinda Lake stated that independent and non-college educated women of the White origins are not decided on how to vote. She argues that this group is a major determinant of the next president in the United States. According to Scott McLean, a professor of Political Science at the University of Quinnipiac, most of them have backed Romney. She suggests that Romney is likely to win the election if President Obama’s efforts to persuade them to vote for him do not succeed. She suggests that President Obama must come up with a good speech that assures Whites of his ability to bring changes to the country if he is to win their support (Cost, 2011).
Independent Voters
Brownstein (2012) highlights that President Obama has lost the support of independent voters who helped him win the 2008 elections in Nevada, Colorado, and Indiana. A report by ABS News in a post poll conducted in Washington indicated that President Obama receives the support of 39% while his rival Romney is supported by 53% of the independent voters. This is because independent voters underrate President Obama’s work in the economy while Romney is recognized for creating more job opportunities at Bain Capital in the course of his tenure. Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster, states that independent voters doubt the capability of the government and the people running it including President Barrack Obama. Another challenge facing the Democrats is the fact that youths and Latinos who support democrats are less concerned about voting compared to groups that support the Republicans like baby boomers and employed Whites. For instance, the results of the latest poll indicate that 47% Latinos show voting interests in the next elections in comparison with 84% seniors and 68% of non-Hispanic origin (Brownstein, 2012).
Conclusion
According to Rasmussen reports, 73% of the United States voters disagree with President Obama’s leadership. They argue that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Before President Obama assumed office, the same number was not satisfied with the previous leadership. This shows that changes have not been made in the country. Only 27% supports the direction in which President Obama is leading the country. Since Americans voted for President Obama in order to bring changes in the country, he has failed because the majority doubt whether giving him a second chance will have any effect. They are opting for another person with the capability of bringing changes. Ron Kaufman, Romney’s adviser argued that Romney has the potential to change the economy of the country and most Americans are willing to give it a trial. According to information gathered, the republicans stand a high chance of benefitting from the upcoming elections in the United States (Cost, 2011).
References
Brownstein, R. (2012). Obama versus Romney. National Journal, 16, pp. 1-15
Cost, J. (2011). Election 2012: An unusually clear policy choice. Policy Review, 170, 3-13.
Crowley, M. (2012). U.S. election 2012: The race moves south. Time International, 179(3), 28.
Erikson, R., Wlezien, C., & Erickson, R. (2012). The timeline of presidential elections: How campaigns do (and do not) matter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Von Drehle, D. (2012). U.S. election 2012 can anyone stop Romney? Time International (South Pacific Edition), 179(2), 12.