North Carolina’s Election: Elizabeth Dole vs. Kay Hagan Term Paper

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Election Context

With a population of 9,061,032 (2007 est.), the North Carolina Department of the Secretary of State declares, the North Carolina to be ranked as 10th largest population in the US. It has got a density of 165.24/sq mi (63.80/km²), and has been ranked 15th in this category sin the US. It has been discovered that North Carolina got divided into eastern and western parts. Till the Civil War, the eastern half was with the Democratic Party, and the western part was basically with the Whig party. Due to strong conservative Protestant heritage, the state of North Carolina remains as a control state (Richard H. Pildes, “Democracy, Anti-Democracy, and the Canon”).

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The North Carolina’s election has much to do with the whole set up of US political scenario. It was in the month of June, that Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections made a dominate declaration that the Senator John Ensign must be considered very for the North Carolina. He further can be positioned as one of the top ten competitors of Senate. The participation and the winning over this election bring in lots of power and responsibilities to the candidate. The North Carolina’s election would proceed through a voting process under strict execution of the legislative rules. It is here that the voters will elect from many their one selective member. The selection is going to happen between one of their two United States Senators. North CQ Politics made the declaration that this election has got no ‘No Clear Favorite’ competitor. The Rothenberg Political Report and along with its counterpart, the Cook Political Report considers it to be a kind of toss. Dates and the official deadlines are declared in the first half of 2008. It has been stated that the Primary elections will end up by May 6, 2008 whereas the General elections will come to an end by 2008.

Carolina’s Election is going to be held on November 4, 2008. This is going to be a major participation in the US political system. The date as has been fixed will surely coincide with the presidential election. It is going to be held in a steaming atmosphere, as it will hit the booths along with U.S. House elections. Gubernatorial added to Council of State and above all the statewide judicial elections are all going to be hand in hand with each other.

Assessment of major candidates

According to the polls related information released in 2008, the election of North Carolina contenders seems to be very strong. Elizabeth Dole has been well challenged by Kay Hagan, the Democratic participator. There is a statistical margin of error, that is partially 3% apart, and to which Cole garnered a point of 4% of the vote. The participation of the candidature is all going to be under proper speculation. Former senator Elizabeth Dole, was elected in 2002 for her first term, and from then she is participating again in this election. In this field her Democratic challenger is the dynamic State Senator Kay Hagan. At the same time Chris Cole will participate as a Libertarian nominee.

Dole has got a strong political hold and that is her biggest asset. Her records with social works add more to her strength as a candidate. She has got the records to work with other senators like those prominent political figures of Chuck Hagel. The scope was pertained in the process to pass legislation reforming housing financing regulation. Also in September 2008, Dole became a member of Gang of 20 that is a bipartisan group and is very actively working towards the development of comprehensive energy reform. However the biggest weakness in Dole against Hagan that inspite of her strong political history she was not supported by the Democratic Party.

As for Kay Hagan, she is very dominant in her performance and that makes her a strong candidate. She is well supported by the Democratic Party and so is very much prominently distinguished. As for the weakness she is considered to be less experienced to her contender and is much young in the political scenario.

The candidatures are being approved for Kay Hagan, the Democratic State Senator and Chris Cole, the Libertarian. Kay Hagan is standing for this position as a challenge to incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole. These two contenders are the major participator for the November general election and definitely this is the competition happening for the first time in North Carolina history. Undoubtedly enough, only the eighth time in U.S. history. The election is unique as it has got two women as the major-party opponents exclusively for a U.S. Senate seat. Initially it was National Democrats that encouraged incumbent Governor Mike Easley for this race, however things changed dramatically and the scene changed. As a matter of fact the Rasmussen Report poll of late 2007, declared that Easley could defeat Dole for 50% to 42%. In the meantime, Easley declined to be a contender, along with him the Congressman Brad Miller, too gave up his interest in the early half of 2007. On the other hand Former Governor Jim Hunt too dismissed to compete Dole and thus declined for the candidature. Eventually in 2008, the State Senator Kay Hagan had a wonderful victory over the Democratic primary election against Jim Neal. She is the one who came up to be Dole’s general election opponent.

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Assessment of issue context

According to the reports, as the campaign follows Dole was well considered to be on the “safe” seat. The simple reason for it was that the Republicans, are thoroughly suffering from Democratic interest as led by the prominent figure of Barack Obama. Being a presidential candidate and with slight support of Hagan in the polls, the positions seems to be very competitive. In the initial days of campaign Hagan got the favor against Dole. However, she has got the support of 527 groups that are very dominantly lobbying on her behalf. the major role as has been played by the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. The Committee is expecting to have more money in North Carolina. This indeed is a correct assumption as the North Carolina has always rolled in more capital than in any other state in the session of 2008 election (American Prospect 2008).

There are many issues that are going to be considered during this voting process. As a matter of fact the people are going to have a keen assessment of this position. The expectations and the assessments are all going to be in consideration to all those issues that are also going to be a part of the Presidential election. The assessments are such that the people are going to consider the issues related to Iraq, terrorism, the economy and moral issues. The public is going keep a keen eye on the character and the personal achievement of these two candidates. The assessments will be done as per the keen observations made and collected through media. Public are also very concerned about the abilities of these candidates. Just being good is not the matter to be concerned. The approach and the sustainability to exist amidst tough political scenario is what the actual assessment will be. The capacity to deal with the national and at least the state level security is also of great importance. There will be voting for the candidate who has got much hold over the central authority. Even after being federal in structure the need for the unitary power always remains and that is what the actual participation that a candidate must show. No matter what the position will be given to the candidate who can really bring in a difference and there must be adequate power and strength to deal with all kinds of risks that are associated to the state.

The Iraq issue is at a great hype and that is a matter of great concern for all the people who are into the aura of election. There is hardly any scope for the people who can bring in a difference and the expectations are really high. The Senate always has continuous debates regarding the management and the future proceedings for the Iraq issue. There are various debates and votes that get determined upon several resolutions taken for the same. The task is to express the Senate’s opinion in the view point that persists on the “surge” of troops in Iraq. Senate Republicans were very dominant in making the move harder. It was after the Democrats refused for those 60 votes for the resolutions to pass the favorism have developed in the side of Republican for the resolution that supports the surge. The political and the social supports are going to play great role in the matter of selection.

In the economy sector, it has been found that there is a difference in economic growth in various areas. These are the places that are under the urban and rural sections of North Carolina. As per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2006 the total gross state product of the state was $375 billion. According to the 36th in the nation, 2005 per capita personal income, the estimation id regarded to be $31,029. All the agricultural outputs of North Carolina include products related to poultry and eggs. It is also exclusive with hogs, tobacco, milk, stock, sweet potatoes, nursery cattle, and soybeans. The economy that these contenders must deal with is related to the offshoring and industrial growth that are coming up in huge quantity in the countries like China. The voters will assess how both Dole and Hagan deal with the crisis that has come up from the 1/5 manufacturing jobs being lost to overseas competition.

This third Rasmussen Reports poll as has been forwarded shows the participation of Dole is very subsequent in trailing Hagan. As for the voters who view the economy as an integral part of the whole campaign procedure, which actually is, and considers it to be the top issue of Election 2008, the records shows that they support Hagan more. Consequently she leads by a two-to-one margin from Dole. As a record, Dole was elected to the Senate in the year 2002. She then proceeded to become the first female to be the Senator in North Carolina’s history. She currently is serving three Senate committees. It is here that the committee is the absolute Committee on Armed Services. On the contrary Attorney Hagan is into the act of serving her fifth term in the State Senate.

Being equally involves din politics and international matters both these contestants are equally involved in social and democratic matters. As for their characters, public is keeping an eye and media is trying bring up some stories. However these women are very much well built and are socially and personally very well settled. Their characteristic features are all getting counted before the ultimate voting process. The concern is very much personal and at the same time is playing vital roles in making the positions much stronger. The candidature is well scrutinized and the role of media is very vital in this case. There is hardly any stone unturned by these contenders to bring in the major transformation with in the state for a static position. The participations are therefore every much well created and the image has been displayed in the best possible way. After all it is also the personal life interpretation that matters to be a leader.

Assessment of the campaign quality

Both the candidates are dealing well with the campaign process. They are making equal efforts and are using all sorts of media power to present themselves. The application of leaflets to You-tube, everything is on its way. By any means the target is to give the voter the picture of the potentiality that they carry.

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From the latest news Hagan is very consistently making a lead of eight points. She is the one who is making this lead at the top among both the women. There is no doubt about the fact that both of them are equally even to men and are very much strong in maintaining their positions.

The trouble turns to be a pain as Dole can’t count on the possible lift from the top of the ticket. The state’s GOP candidate support that is now no way going to be with her makes her go more worried about the election. Dan Kane; Rob Christensen and J. Andrew Curliss (2007-01-25) state that Dole still seems to be away from the endangered Republican Senator in Election 2008. As a matter of fact there are many Republican Senate seats that are potentially in play for the positions for the Democrats for the seats in Alaska, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia. This was quite static as the Democrats were sure to have some got shot seats in Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas.

Albert Shaw, The American Monthly Review of Reviews declares that the estimations and the assessments shows standardized participation of Ms. Hagan and her position as a banking executive. She is the one who became a full-time mother, before being a part of State Senate career. It was journey from 1998. Even then the party never made her to be their first choice as opposed to Dole in the election. The campaigns are also all related to the justifications made in this section. On the contrary the participation of Dole has been well campaigned as she has a record of serving the cabinets of two presidents. Added to this she was also very much a part of the American Red Cross as the president. The supports are all assessed on the basis candidate performance, raising money, overall strategy, message and tactics. These are the basic ingredients that create the image of the candidate. Ms. Hagan’s comment that she would not enter the race, and then again shifted to concerted effort of recruiting herself brings in lots of attention. Being the co-chairperson of the budget committee in the General Assembly Hagan had managed to maintain a very good image. This is the strongest point in her. For the position of county chairperson in Greensboro for Mr. Hunt’s campaigns she had created great possibilities of being recognized.

There are many records of Hagan in terms of providing financial support to many people. There are lots o promises kept I terms of financial help. This is what induced her to perform. Ms. Hagan still is facing questions like:

“There’s not been a day since I decided to get in the race that I’ve regretted it,” she said. “I’m going to win this race.”

It is here that the focus has also been made over one of Mrs. Dole’s weak points. In terms of financial status, Dole has been discovered to lack in spending much time with her people in the first four years of her term. Her participation as a leader was also not that prominent in those four years. Added to this she was more in the matters related to other states as compared to North Carolina. Her campaigns are no doubt well systematically structured with the ingredients of candidate performance, raising money, overall strategy, message and tactics. The predominant image of Dole from 2004 to 2006, states that she was busy raising money for her state and was very much a part of all the strategical developments that came into being in the state. She was the chairperson of National Republican Senatorial Committee. This is the time when in 2006, Republicans were facing heavy losses in party participation and as a result lost the entire control of the Senate.

In the words of Ms. Hagan, after a campaign to the media at a nursing home in Lexington, N.C, “Right now, we’ve had somebody in Congress that is an absentee — she really doesn’t leave Washington.” Added to this the version was the words of Ferrel Guillory, commented that Mrs. Dole had been totally disengaged in every aspect for the election. In his words “It’s hard to know how much of this sinks in to the general public, the general voters.” According to the political analysts, the whole matter was unclear. It further got blurred over the issue of how the pitched presidential campaigns that are going on in the state would affect the Senate race. As for the predictions and the campaign reactions on North Carolina ballots, one thing is for sure. It is the voters who will legally will not be led to vote a straight party ticket for the matter of the entire ballot. In spite of all these circumstances there is hardly any aspect left unturned in terms of making dominant declarations from both the candidates. However the campaign strategies as has been implemented by both can be well graded.

candidate performanceraising moneyoverall strategymessage and tactics
E. DoleCABC
K. HaganBBAB

Prediction of the outcome

The following is the follow up of the records as has been set by Dole(R) and Hagan (D). From here some clear predictions can be made. Though there are lots of variations and ups and downs, yet the consistencies too can be well detected. The popularities of both the contenders are very strong and both of them are into neck to neck competition with each other.

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  • Dole (R) v Hagan (D)

The predictions can be well assessed on the basis of the fact that Democrat Kay Hagan has got better option. She is continuously leading with modest lead and her position seems to be better than the incumbent United States Senator Elizabeth Dole. As per the Rasmussen Reports poll that has also made the declaration clear as per the Tar Heel State, that the dominance of Kay Hagan is more stronger than her contender. Added to this the new poll finds that Hagan has got a lead of 49% of the vote; whereas, on the other hand Dole could manage to be with 44%. This is a slight change to what Hagan had in the previous week with a top score of 48% to 45%. The scene is quite different in case of the Libertarian Christopher Cole. The voters of North Carolina supporting him are rate to be a minimal of 2%. Dole’s favorably below has got the support rating of 50% mark. In the scoring list she had an assessment of 49% in her favor and equal amount seems to persist for an unfavorable view. As compared to Dole, Hagan has got a score of 50% in her favor and a close, still valuable 45% for unfavorable participation.

Dole has always maintained the records of leading this race, but has fallen behind by the strong participation of Lehman Brothers. The Lehman Brothers; however seemed to collapse to start the economic crisis on Wall Street.

There was this political interpretation under which Dole decline s to the national trend. This was a great shock for the Republicans and that was quite obvious all through the country. As for McCain he managed to be little ahead to Obama. This was a situation just before the financial debacle that came into being and at the same time fell apart continuously over the past few weeks. This was the latest peripheral and dimensional set up that has been covered well by the Rasmussen Reports. This is also integral to the daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

According to the Rasmussen poll the collective data of North Carolina declares that Sen. Elizabeth Dole is really burning her skin in front of her contender Dem challenger, the state Sen. Kay Hagan. Hagan has just very recently won the primary selection procedure. As per the report the calculations are estimated to be as follows:

  • Hagan (D) 48%
  • Dole (R) 47%

Sample size was comprised of 500 likely voters. Margin of error has been estimated to be ±4%.

From this exclusive pollster’s Eric Kleefeld, Rasmussen: GOP Sen. Dole In Dead Heat Against Democratic Nominee made the analysis and the assessment and declared that: “Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign cycle is considered potentially vulnerable. Dole is far from the only Republican incumbent in that position this year.”

It is here that the assessments gets so clearly distinguished and people are seem to be in great support of Hagan than Dole. There is nothing strange if Hagan remains to be the last candidate in the platform of North Carolina.

Conclusion

The importance of this North Carolina election is undoubtedly one of the most important sections related to the US politics. The participation and getting elected are the pivotal factors that can bring in enough support to the real candidature. As it is getting organized in parallel to the presidential election, it is also trying to swing across the boats to have equal public support. The position for both the candidates, Dole and Hagan are really tough. Even after having wonderful political careers they are still at a stake. Though Hagan’s position seems to be more constant, yet Dole is not very far from her.

Eric states in Kleefeld Rasmussen: GOP Sen. Dole, In Dead Heat against Democratic Nominee; that the assessment must get well scrutinized. According to the collected data by him, there is a different scene al together. He made the analysis on the basis of a new poll that states that incumbent Republican Senator is facing a real tough race. Added to this interpretation, he further states that there are the indications that the Senate GOP may come up with oppositional status in the current this year for future persuasion. All these shows that an assessment in the behalf of Kay Hagan can be made and as there is more democratic participation, there is more support on her behalf. The campaigning strategy also shows that Kay Hagan is more systematic in picking up some specified areas. There are various local assessments that are being made. The media too seems to be in her favor and there are all kinds of support that are coming in as a matter of fact, the position of Kay Hagan seems to be much stronger than Dole.

As far as the people of North Carolina are concern they are all set and the media is really playing a vital role. The participants had made all kinds of attempts to bring in their agendas to the public and people are eager to make the assessments. The participation of Hagan shows how consistently she is rising and how important it is for to be the winner. As for Dol it is very important to win as she needs to remain as part of the Party and of US politics. Added to all kinds of competitiveness, the strongest participation has come in from the schedule for the election. Being parallel to the presidential election the participants need to go through more scrutinizes. The results are though blurred yet the dominance of Hagan cannot be ignored and were the participations made by Dole. Who ever win the profitability musyt get countered over the state. The US presidential support too is a matter that is getting into more concern. The experience of Dole makes her more strong and dynamic, whereas the positions as has been hold by Hagan makes her one of the most predominant figure on the platform.

Sources

2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report. Web.

Albert Shaw, The American Monthly Review of Reviews, Vol. XXII, 1900, pp. 273-274. Web.

Beckwith, Ryan Teague (2007). “Hagan will not run against Dole”, News & Observer.

Dan Kane; Rob Christensen and J. Andrew Curliss (2007). “Poll puts Easley over Dole”, The News & Observer. 2008. Web.

Dole, Bob & Elizabeth with Richard Norton Smith (1988). The Doles: Unlimited Partners. Simon & Schuster. ISBN 0-671-60202-0.

Eric Kleefeld, Rasmussen: GOP Sen. Dole In Dead Heat Against Democratic Nominee, 2008. Web.

Is the Southern Strategy Dead?”, American Prospect (2008). Web.

Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections The New York Times, 2008. Web.

Miller looking at Senate race, 2008. Web.

“North Carolina Climate and Geography”. NC Kids Page. North Carolina Department of the Secretary of State (2006). Web.

Race Ratings Chart: Senate CQ Politics. Web.

Richard H. Pildes, ““, Constitutional Commentary, Vol.17, 2000, p. 27. Web.

Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections, The New York Times, 2008.

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