Demographics
Total population and population growth since 1960
Guatemala has enjoyed a constant rise in the total population since 1960. With a period of five decades, the population has grown from an estimated 4.16 million in 1960 to 14.75 people in 2011 (Knudsen 19). Within the first decade (that is between 1960 and 1970), the population rose by 31% from 4.16 million to 5.45 million people.
The population growth per annum has remained generally constant. In fact, there has been little change in population growth every consecutive year. Between 1960 and 1970, the percentage averaged at 2.70%. Since then, the average per every ten years has not been changing by a large margin.
For instance, the average annual growth for the Guatemalan population between 1970 and 1980 was 2.56%, while that recorded between 1980 and 1190 reduced to 2.38%.
By the end of the 20th century, the population growth rate averaged at 2.31%, but gained by a small margin to reach 2.47% by 2011. This means that for the last 50 years, Guatemala’s population growth has averaged at 2.48%.
Crude death rate
It is quite difficult to examine the demographics of any country without an analysis of its death rate (Mittal 12). In this case, we examine the crude death rate (deaths per 1,000 people) in Guatemala since 1960. Statistics indicate that Guatemala’s crude death rate has been reducing significantly over the last 50 years.
In fact, it is worth noting that by 1960, the crude death rate stood at 18.995, but by the end of the 21st century, it has reduced by 12.718 to reach 6.277, which is estimated at 70% decrease. This is quite a commendable achievement, whose contributing factors have been explained under health and income rates analysis.
Between 1960 and 1970, the annual decrease in crude death rate stood at 16.90%, but this decreased by more than 4%, achieving an average annual death rate of 13.0% by 1980. Similarly, there was significant reduction in the country’s annual death rate, with statistics showing that it the average death rate (crude) for the national population stood at around 10.09 by 1990.
Towards the end of the 20th century, the country had achieved a reduction its average death rate (crude), which had now reached about 7.58%, although the country did not reach its target rate of less than 5% by the turn of the century.
However, over the first one decade of the 21st century, Guatemala increasingly reduced its crude death rate, which now stands at 5.76% (by the end of year 2011). This is a great achievement for the country, given its ability to significantly reduce its annual death rate for the last 50 years.
In addition, this is a sign that within the next few decades, the country might be able to achieve a reduction of its crude death rate to less than 2.0% per annum.
Economically, this could have been due to an increase in the country’s annuals gains, as indicated by an increasing population of the middle class, increasing volume of GDP, health and education development as well as a revolution of its industries (Vanden and Prevost 56).
Crude birth rate
Like several other nations in the region, Guatemala has shown its ability to reduce its crude birth rate (number of births per 1000 people) per annum for the last 50 years. For instance, in 1960, the annuals birth rate stood at 46.65, but by the end of the 20th century, the rate had reduced by more than 10 points, reaching 36.61.
In addition, this trend continued over the first one decade of the 21st century, with statistics showing that the country’s crude birth rate stood at 31.97 in 2011. Again, this indicates a reduction of more than 5 points within a span of 10 years.
In fact, this is the largest reduction in the rate of birth per 1000 people per decade over the last 50 years. This is in line with the country’s new policies on industry, agriculture, health and birth control policies that have targeted achievement in reducing both the number of birth and death rates.
Moreover, it is an indication that the country could achieve a constant birth rate of less than 20 per 1000 people within the next few decades.
The question on the population’s fertility rate in Guatemala can be examined with an analysis of the number of births per 1000 women over the last 50 years. Here, the country shows a steady decrease in its fertility rate, with statistics showing a decrease of more than 3.0 units.
For instance, in 1960, the fertility rate for Guatemala was estimated to be 6.53, but by the end of 20th century, it had reduced by more than 2.5 units, reaching an approximated rate of 4.8. In addition, the reduction was witnessed over the next one decade, with the current statistics showing that the fertility rate has reduced significantly, reaching 3.92 in 2011.
These statistics clearly indicate a good trend in maintaining a healthy population in a country considered as a third world nation. In fact, an important factor indicates a good rate of economic and social development.
Theoretically, it would be possible to see Guatemala as a country where the number of births per household has reduced by more than 50% of the period of 50 years. It is an indication that the country’s middle class is on the rise, while the people living poorly, especially due to lack of jobs and good education, and is on the decline.
Despite the constant political and economic problems facing the country, it is worth seeing the real changes in its population from the perspectives of social development, as indicated by these statistics (Watson and Kirby 127).
Age structure
Population structure
The structure of population in Guatemala can be used as an important aspect to explain the observed changes in its social and economic development over the last 50 years.
For instance, looking at the ratio of males to females, young to adults and the aged and the employed to unemployed people, we are in a better position to explain why the rate of poverty, literacy and economy have changed in a given way over a given period.
In this case, we choose to look at these rations within a span of 50 years from 1960 to 2010 as well as including the current statistics taken by the end of year 2011.
With these statistics, it is possible to reflect Guatemala’s social and economic development and perhaps predict what should be expected within the next few decades, assuming stability in its political and civil situations.
First, it is worth looking at and analyzing the proportion of the children in the country’s population. Between 1960 and 2000, the number of children between the ages of 0 to 14 years, taken as a percentage of the total population per annum, has been reducing, albeit by only a small margin, every 10 years.
For instance, in 1960, children within this age category made some 45.71%, but a constant reduction saw this group of young people account for 44.01% by the end of the 20th century. In addition, this change has been observed within the last one decade, with the number of children in this age category now making 41.14% of the total population.
However, it is worth noting that between 2000 and 2011, the change has been large and more significant than in the previous decades. It is worth noting that within the first one decade of the 21st century, the number reduced by almost 4%, which means that there has been some changes in population trend within this period.
It may also provide us with an insight into the country’s rate of industrialization, economic growth and development as well as the impact of these on social and cultural factors (Kintner 51).
Within this context, it is important to consider the changes in Guatemala’s ratio of adults against the young people. However, we cannot take it for granted that the adult population is constant because there are several categories in this age structure.
In addition, dividing the population of the adult people into distinct age groups per age will give us an insight into the country’s production potential, its size of labor force and liabilities in terms of the number of dependent (aged) people (Bloom, Canning and Seville 93).
Looking at the number of people aged between 15 and 64 years, it is evident that the country’s working population is quite large and has gained over the last 50 years. For instance, by 1960, Guatemala’s population of the people in this age category stood at 51.68%, which means that this was the largest group of people in the country, exceeding half of the population by 1%.
An increase in this group of people is significant. In fact, this age category has never reduced within any period of 10 years since 1960, although in some years, it has been increasing by minimal digits. However, in total, the country has increased its population of working population from 51.68% in 1960 to about 54.12% in 2010 and currently stands at 54.5%.
This is an indication that within a span of 50 years, the country has achieved a 3% increase in its working population. It is worth noting that again, the largest change in this category has been experienced within the first one decade of the 20th century because this is the period in which the country gained by around 3% in terms of the number of people in the 15-65 age category.
This further shows some changes in the country’s social and economic sector within a period of just ten years. In addition, it is an indication that the country’s future in terms of economic and social development could be headed towards a second world status, but only if the political and economic leadership remains commendably healthy (Weber 43).
The population of the aged people (beyond the age of 65 years), on the other hand, has been experiencing the least significant change within the last 50 years. It appears that the average rate of ageing in Guatemala could be compromised.
For instance, between 1960 and 2000, the country’s population of the aged gained from 2.62% of the total population to only 4.31% in 2010. In fact, the 0.31% was only gained between 2000 and 2011.
Overall, the country’s aged population gained by less than 2.0% within a span of 50 years, which indicates that despite having a constantly growing number of the working class and a reduction in its rate of dependency, there could be a crisis because most people do not reach the age of 65.
In addition, this could provide an indication that the life expectancy in Guatemala could be less than 65 years for an average person. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the trend in the life expectancy in Guatemala over the same period.
Nevertheless, it is important to look at the country’s population in terms of the number of females to the number of males in order to look at the life expectancy later in the analysis.
Surprisingly, Guatemala seems to be one of the countries in the world that has made significant gains in increasing the life expectantly of its citizens. For instance, by 1960, the country’s people had a life expectancy of just 45.75 years, which in this case was characteristic of underdeveloped nations.
However, the country experienced a significant growth in the life expectancy, reaching 52.04 years by the end of 1970 (Sheehan and Koh 21). This indicates a growth of more than 6.5 years within a period of ten years, and an average annual growth of about 0.67years.
The change continued over the 1970s, with the life expectancy rate reaching 57.31 years by 1980. Similarly, the country made significant gains over the last two decades, with statistics showing that it the life expectancy in Guatemala had reached an average of 62.29 years in 1990 before jumping again to 67.74 years by the end of the 20th century.
Within the first years of the 21st century, Guatemala has experienced a significant growth in the people’s life expectancy, with 2011 statistics showing that an average person in Guatemala is expected to live up to an average of 71.10 years. In fact, this is an increase of the expectancy rate by more than 25 years within a period of 50 years.
The average growth in life expectancy for every 10-year period in a series of five categories of 10 years since 1960 indicates that the country has been gaining all through. For instance, between 1960 and 1970, the country gained by 6.2 years, which is equal to an average change of 0.62 years.
In addition, it indicates that the country’s population was expected to live up to an average of 48.70 years within that decade. However, between 1970 ad 1980, the people were expected to be living up to an average of 55.26 years, an average improvement of around 6.56 years.
Secondly, the periods between 1980 and 1990 and from 1990 and 2000 experienced some significant growths in life expectancy, with the population expected to live up to 62.29 years by 1990 and up to 67.74 years by the end of the 20th century.
Within the first one decade of the 21st century, the country’s life expectancy has continued to increase significantly, with the latest statistics showing that a normal Guatemalan is expected to live up to the age of 71 years.
From this analysis, it is worth arguing that the country is on the right track because an increase in life expectancy is an indication of positive economic and social growth.
There have been tremendous improvement in life expectancy per gender, with the trend showing a higher expectancy rate for women that that of men (Martins, Yusuf and Swanson 73). For instance, a Guatemalan male had life expectancy of48.88 years in 1960, but has been increasing significantly over the years.
By 1970, an average person in the country was expected to live up to 50.1 years, 55.23 in 1980 and 59.39 in 1990. This trend continued, with the male life expectancy reaching 64.77 in 1990 and 67.34 by the end of 2000. Over the last one decade, life expectancy for males in the country has reached an all time high of 68 years.
Similarly, female life expectancy has enjoyed massive growth since 1960. For example, in 1960, females were expected to live up to the age of 46.66 years, but increased to 53.396 by 1970. Between 1970 and 1980 and between 1980 and 1990, the average life expectancy for women experienced tremendous improvement by reaching 59.45 and 65.32 respectively.
By 2000, the figure had risen to 71.4 before jumping to an all-time high of 74.72 in 2010. It is also worth noting that women have always had higher than that of males, with the disparity increasing every ten years.
For instance, the disparity between then in 1960 was just 1.78 years, but by 2010, it had increased to 7.1 years. This indicates that the country has invested much on social and health affairs, especially in reducing maternal death rate (Mittal 32).
Works Cited
Bloom, David, David Canning, and Jaypee Seville. Economic growth and the demographic transition. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011. Print.
Kintner, Hallie. Demographics: A Casebook for Business and Government. Washington, DC: Rand Corporation, 2012. Print.
Knudsen, Shannon. Guatemala. Minneapolis, MN: Lerner Publications, 2011. Print.
Martins, Jo, Farhat Yusuf and David Swanson. Consumer Demographics and Behaviour: Markets Are People. New York, NY: Springer, 2010. Print.
Mittal, Anderson. Planning for Urban and Economic Development. New York, Ny: Mittal Publications, 2010. Print.
Sheehan, Sean and Magdalene Koh. Guatemala. TarryTown, NY: Marshall Cavendish, 2011. Print.
Vanden, Harry and Gary Prevost. Guatemala- Politics of Latin America: The Power Game. London: Oxford University Press, 2009. Print.
Watson, Anna and David A. Kirby. Small Firms and Economic Development in Developed and Transition Economies. New York, NY: Springer, 2011. Print.
Weber, Lars. Demographic Change and Economic Growth – Simulation on Growth Models Physica. Mason, OH: Cengage learning, 2010. Print.