Research Question and Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the UK hard, creating not only economic problems, but also exposing some contradictions within the country. The desire of the Boris Johnson’ government to overcome the crisis unexpectedly led to division – restrictive measures began to be lifted in England, when other territorial units of the state decided to go their way. From the point of view of Western media, contradictions are tearing the country apart from the inside, returning the issue of internal unity to the agenda. Northern Ireland’s abandonment of the Johnson’ plan is in line with UK law, with parts of the state gaining the right to independently implement health policy more than 20 years ago. However, despite no one disputes the legality of their actions, but the very fact of such a decision makes one think about unity in the country. Tensions between the UK government and the country’s political and administrative regions over the past few years have been exacerbated by the fact that they currently have different political parties with different ideologies and visions of the future.
In Ireland, the authorities introduced the closure of educational institutions in less than two weeks after the identification of the first infected person. In addition, all celebrations were cancelled, and strict social distancing rules were introduced. On the eve of St. Patrick’s Day, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar appealed to the Irish nation, declaring the authorities’ readiness to help all those affected. In neighbouring Northern Ireland, due to political confusion, supporters of unification advocated the same course that Ireland followed, while its opponents relied on leadership from London – thus, an acute situation developed. In general, in Northern Ireland, there is a widespread rather negative attitude towards the measures taken by London in the fight against the pandemic. According to polls, 65% of respondents are confident that the British government has taken the wrong course in the fight against coronavirus (Petrie and Norman, 2020). The coronavirus pandemic plunges the UK into its worst crisis in 300 years. According to the Bank of England forecast, the national economy this year may fall to 14%, and the unemployment rate will jump by half to 9% (Deloitte, 2019). The main reason is the introduction of strict antiviral quarantine restrictions, the general global recession, and the closure of borders, as well as the allocation of a huge funds to support citizens and businesses.
A lot of resources were spent on a government program that provides for government compensation for up to 80% of the salaries of self-employed workers. Up to 5 million people are already participating in the program (Deloitte, 2019). The total number of these people is predicted to reach 8.5 million (Deloitte, 2019). The budget deficit is growing due to support programs. Despite the measures taken, Britain ranked first among European countries in the number of deaths from coronavirus (Petrie and Norman, 2020). All this is happening against the background of incessant political squabbles within the Northern Ireland establishment, which, having a systemic effect, leads to a sharp exacerbation of social conflicts in the region. In addition, Britain is in the midst of a Brexit economic transition, which will end in late 2020, and then the country will finally sever all ties with the European Union, whether with or without a trade agreement.
The pandemic has had a negative impact on the UK’s domestic field. The last few months have been accompanied by an increase in unemployment, an increase in public debt and the risk of reduced funding for social needs. Especially serious consequences will be experienced due to the “double effect” of the coronavirus and Brexit pandemic. Industries not affected by the pandemic will be affected by the UK’s exit from the EU. In this difficult period, the UK government, while moving towards reforming government structures, does not have a clear strategy on the direction of these reforms.
The pandemic has led to a decline in public support for the UK government on regional levels. Moreover, the sharp downturn in the UK economy after Brexit could trigger a rise in separatist sentiment. At present, the issue of Northern Ireland’s secession from the United Kingdom is not on the agenda, but it may become quite acute as early as next year. Since 1998, the Government of Northern Ireland has operated under the Good Friday Agreement – an instrument for a political settlement of the conflict in this part of the UK. However, in January 2017, it fell apart due to internal disagreements. For the next three years, the region was ruled by civil servants with limited powers.
The implementation of major economic and social projects against the background of the preparation of Brexit was suspended, and the parliament of Northern Ireland did not work either. In such circumstances, the terrorist organization Irish Republican Army (IRA) has stepped up its propaganda activities. The most famous slogan “IRA – an invincible army, an unfinished revolution” now sounds like “a defeated army, a complete revolution. Completed in 2019” (Ferriter, 2019, p. 59). No one believes that the new IRA will be able to recover, but it can be reborn under a different name. This means that there is a new split that is already taking place in Northern Irish society in connection with Brexit and may be catalysed by a pandemic crisis.
In addition, while the COVID-19 crisis primarily threatens physical health, it can cause serious mental health problems. Psychological stress has become pervasive among the population. Many people are stressed by the direct effects of the virus on their health and the effects of physical isolation. Millions of citizens face economic problems, losing or risking losing their sources of income and livelihoods. Common causes of anxiety include frequent false information and rumours about the virus, as well as serious uncertainty about the future.
Thus, a wide range of socio-political, socio-economic and socio-psychological problems determines the need for empirical research of public attitudes to develop appropriate action programs. This is extremely important, since it is obvious that the most decisive influence on public sentiment will be provided by the level of effectiveness of measures taken by the authorities to restore the situation in the economic, social, cultural and domestic spheres. The pandemic is changing the global, national and regional political and social landscape within countries, and to understand these changes, it is necessary to understand the changing attitudes, preferences, values and expectations of Northern Ireland citizens.
Survey Content: Concepts and Operationalisation
The coronavirus COVID-19 has made significant adjustments to the existing way of life of the world’s population. To assess the key points of ethical adjustments in Northern Ireland, a survey was developed, containing 14 questions aimed at revealing prevailing socio-psychological moods in Northern Ireland society – level of anxiety and main reasons of it, risk of depression, and self-feeling as burden to society. The results of pilot survey have shown high level of family members positive testing on COVID-19, high (about 60%) stress level, as well as sound level of anxiety, significant difficulties of accessing important resources for daily life, critical level of risk of decreasing economic security – income and employment. As the main reason of anxiety, 40% of respondents called “being housebound for long periods,” and “fear of getting the virus” is on the second place; moreover, about 60% of respondents agree that they are to some extent a burden to society. It is believed that public sentiment during a crisis usually develops according to the following scenario: shock and confusion – hope for help from the state – disappointment – resentment against the authorities (Przeworski, 2019). The current crisis will inevitably cause a decrease in support for the authorities and further polarization of public opinion in Northern Ireland. This is due, in particular, to the functioning of the so-called social classes.
Singling out people of “own circle” and identifying self with them, each person begins to adhere to cultural patterns and values similar to those that are accepted and functionally mastered among people with close or identical statuses. In addition, numerous studies have proven that people who have similar or the same statuses in several dimensions of social space, as a rule, have similar attitudes and orientations, likes and dislikes, political priorities and many other components of the structure of thinking (Przeworski, 2019). Being in conditions of forced self-isolation due to quarantine, people of different social classes communicate with each other much less often than under normal conditions, which leads to the formation of isolated social groups with potentially conflicting interests. This division reduces the number of connections and cultural interactions between individuals. In addition, due to the pandemic, many members of the middle class may find themselves among the poor due to lower incomes and job loss, which is also a very conflict-prone factor.
Since the founding of Northern Ireland in 1921, feuds have existed between the two representative communities, often escalating into armed clashes. The conflict unfolded over the status of the province: unionists, mostly Protestants, want Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom. Nationalists, mostly Catholics, oppose the partition of the country, and advocate for a single Irish Republic. The problem of national identification of the Northern Ireland population is very complex and reflects its historical past. Today this problem is again felt in society with a new acuteness. After the end of the Brexit transition period, there may be an increase in political tension in the British regions, where the majority of the population voted against the UK’s exit from the EU in the 2016 referendum, in particular, separatists’ actions in Northern Ireland are possible.
The “decadent” mood in society can significantly swing the “pendulum” towards separatism. According to a survey by Lord Ashcroft, 46% of Northern Ireland residents support leaving the United Kingdom and becoming part of Ireland; 45% are against, and the rest are undecided (Cochrane, 2020). The Sinn Fein party, in its election manifesto, identified as priorities opposition to Brexit, a referendum on the unification of Northern Ireland and neighbouring Ireland, and preservation of membership in the European Union. The Northern Ireland local parliament is dominated by a coalition led by the Democratic Unionist Party, which advocates the preservation of the region as part of the UK. However, following the results of the last parliamentary elections, supporters of unification with Ireland – Sinn Fein and the Social Democratic Labour Party – got more seats in the House of Commons than the Unionists.
In the process of compiling the questionnaire for the survey, it was rather difficult to formulate questions, the answers to which would help to understand the socio-political moods of the Northern Irish society. For ethical reasons, it was decided to exclude political questions or assessments of the actions of the British and local authorities from the survey. Of course, this in some way limited the possibilities of the study; however, in the course of the pilot survey, it allowed drawing some indirect conclusions about the conflict potential of society in Northern Ireland. There were no difficulties in getting the respondents’ answers, since the survey was conducted using a standardized online tool – SurveyMonkey.
Data Collection and Sampling Strategy
When forming a probabilistic (random) sample, such a selection of observations is provided, in which the formed sample is representative of the general population. Representativeness is the property due to which the sample recreates all the characteristics of the general population that are important from the research point of view. One of the first tasks of a sampling study is the transition from the object of study to a sample population, which is expedient to carry out according to the following scheme: object of study => general population => sampling frame => sampling units => observation units (Creswell and Creswell, 2017). The unit of observation in sociological surveys is a specific person (respondent) who will answer the question of the questionnaire. For simple random sampling, sampling units and observation units are the same.
Since the survey was conducted to study the situation in Northern Ireland, and not in the UK as a whole, in this case, the above categories coincide. Simple random sampling assumes that each unit of the general population is provided with an equal probability (opportunity) to get into the sample population. Moreover, each possible sample of a given size has a known and equal probability that it will become the actual sample being surveyed. The advantage of this method is full compliance with the principle of randomness and, as a consequence, the avoidance of systematic errors.
The SurveyMonkey tool allows conducting quick online survey, eliminating the influence of human factor during the procedure of working with respondents. Moreover, this tool facilitates processing results, providing some stages of results analysis. In general, online surveys have clear advantages over conventional survey techniques due to the following features (Creswell and Creswell, 2017):
- clear ‘technique’ of access to respondents,
- the breadth of spatial coverage with a fixed budget,
- managing the time parameters of the survey to ensure its one-step nature,
- control over the quality of input of answers and the process of coding and processing of survey data,
- ease of implementation of procedures for control over sample units,
- feedback from respondents and some other known methodological difficulties.
Research Ethics
When conducting Internet surveys, a significantly lower level of influence of the researcher (interviewer) on the respondent is noted. Accordingly, in the answers of the respondents, there are less socially approved, socially desirable answer options than in the situation of a conversation with the interviewer “face to face”. Thus, research on the Internet allows getting fairly complete and meaningful information when conducting research. This, in turn, increases the validity of the study results and reduces the likelihood that the continued use of incorrect results could lead to errors in the design of social programs for the population of Northern Ireland in the current pandemic crisis, which could have negative consequences in both the short-term and in the long run.
The possibility of answering the questionnaire without direct contact with the interviewer makes it possible to achieve a higher level of trust from the respondents, and also eliminates any possibilities of incorrect behaviour of the researcher in relation to the respondent, in particular, associated with the respondent’s belonging to a certain social class. Also, the online method eliminates the likelihood of direct or indirect influence of the researcher on the respondent’s answers.
Limitations of the Survey
Regardless of the problem being solved, the survey expresses a general principle: the more respondents, the more accurate the results, and the more accurate the results, the more objective they are. Therefore, here the emphasis is made on quantitative, numerical indicators and their relationship, comparison with each other. At the same time, these tasks set the limitations of this method – through a survey, we can find out, for example, what percentage of citizens have a high level of anxiety or depression in connection with the coronavirus pandemic lockdown. However, the survey will not be able to correctly answer the question of what is the focus of the shift in political preferences in Northern Irish society – survey allows only to ‘outline’ such results. To obtain more accurate and valid results, qualitative research methods are needed – for example, interviews. Direct questions about the shift in political preferences of respondents during the lockdown, about the level of support for the actions of the British and regional authorities, would allow to obtain much more accurate results for answering the research question. However, for fear of possible violations of research ethics, political questions were not included in the questionnaire.
Reference List
Cochrane, F. (2020) Breaking peace: Brexit and Northern Ireland. Manchester: Manchester University Press.
Creswell, J. W. and Creswell, J. D. (2017) Research design: qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches. 5th edn. New York: SAGE Publications.
Deloitte (2019) Tackling Brexit and COVID-19 together. Web.
Ferriter, D. (2019) The border: the legacy of a century of Anglo-Irish politics. London: Profile Books.
Petrie, K. and Norman, A. (2020) Assessing the economic implications of coronavirus and Brexit. London: The Social Market Foundation.
Przeworski, A. (2019) Crises of democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge.