Overpopulation: “Empty Planet” by Bricker & Ibbitson Essay (Book Review)

Introduction

Global issues surrounding the Earth are nowadays becoming increasingly severe and evident. The rapid devastation of the ecosystem, overpopulation, and various large-scale conflicts seem to be the main problems our world is facing today. People and their actions have been regarded as the root of all the aforementioned aspects, and rapid population growth has been seen as expanding this root and, thus, the scale of global issues. Scientists tend to approximately calculate how many years the Earth will be able to generate the resources necessary for its habitants. However, the latest researches put forward a theory that the population could disappear before the resources collapse. In 2019, Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson wrote a book called Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline.¹ In their work, they voiced their concern about the future possibility of a rapid decline in population numbers and its implications for the overall world conditions. The purpose of this paper is to examine and analyze the introduced book as well to express some personal ideas and attitudes concerning the topic.

The Issue of Overpopulation

Nowadays, people create a variety of things in order to diminish the problem of overpopulation. They popularize programs of rational family planning in countries with a high fertility rate, and they even create state laws about having a certain amount of children in a family. For instance, Chinese couples were allowed to have only one child for almost 35 years. State governments and ecology activists promote the ways of family planning safe for the planet because they are afraid that the Earth will not have enough resources to sustain all its residents. The environmental impact on the planet’s ecosystem is also of crucial importance. In order to provide themselves with all the necessary items, people now frequently open various factories and plants across the globe. The level of consumer products that pollute our planet is also massive and needs immediate reconsideration. However, while some people are trying in vain to stabilize the average population growth in all parts of the world, others are becoming aware of the implications such drastic changes can bring to the future of the Earth.

The Brief Book Outline

Bricker and Ibbitson are firmly convinced that even though the actions taken towards population growth reduction are beneficial nowadays, they are to bring some serious drawbacks in the upcoming decades. The title Empty Planet in 2019 seems not very realistic and even surreal because of all the statistics researchers provide on the rapid growth in the number of people. However, the authors do not omit or ignore the fact that at first, there would be an inexorable rise in the world population. What they are trying to say is that once this number starts to decline, the world community will face the point of no return. This downturn will become as stable as the population expansion in terms of modern society.

With the appearance of technology and social awareness in developing countries, population growth control is also coming to a new level. The vast majority of women are now able to access sex education, which allows them to reconsider their reproduction control. Modern married couples also start to develop a new vision of family planning. They tend to postpone having a child or rethink the number of children they want to have in order to provide them with appropriate living and educational standards. The authors think that such a turn towards advised family planning will lead to a distinct gap between newborn children and people aged over 60. Hence, the aging population is going to prevail over other age groups, and, eventually, it will lead to the overall population decline.

Even though the main idea seems realistic in the long run, I cannot totally agree with the key arguments of the book. To my point of view, all the actions that are taking place now should be of the planet’s main interest. The current demographic picture shows that if the overpopulation does not slow down soon, the Earth will not even exist by the time the number of people starts to drop. That is why I think that to some extent, the authors’ idea is slightly exaggerated, and it should not cause so much rush.

The Aging Population

One of the most significant concerns pointed out in the book was the issue of increasing the quantity of the aging population or people who are over 60. Such a tendency, to their mind, is a serious trigger for the future population prosperity, as it will eventually cause a continuous decline. Although the issue is, in fact, real, I believe it may be over-emphasized in the text. For instance, we may examine the demographic situation in Africa. By the end of the 21st century, its population is going to triple, but the share of older people will also increase by more than 10%.² These numbers cover not only Africa’s gap but also the ones of the developed countries such as China or Japan. In such a way, the potential danger of the aging population increase would be counterbalanced by the rapid population growth in developing countries. Thus, the point of life when the elderly share outweighs considerably other age groups may not happen earlier than within two centuries.

Bricker & Ibbitson vs. Morland

In the era of overpopulation concerns, various researchers voice their opinions on the same topic. Their ideas are nonetheless different due to the perspectives from which they analyze the question. Bricker and Ibbitson, for example, examined the demographic situation in terms of number and ratio of various population categories while Paul Morland discussed it more from a political perspective.³ According to Morland, all the demographic patterns affect world history and states’ position in the overall picture. Increases or declines in a nation’s population are directly connected to its potential influence area.

For instance, Bricker and Ibbitson do not emphasize the idea of a political coup as a result of the future difference in population growth of developing and developed countries. All they are trying to convey is the fact that the US may lose its political power due to the lack of migration. Morland, on the contrary, singles out the idea about the downturn in world politics caused by demographics. He says that if previously European countries sent their residents to the developing countries due to lack of territory, it could be vice versa happening right now.⁴ Other researchers claim that migration from the developing countries in seeking financial stability and happiness is now an essential marker of defining world-leading states.⁵ People from countries with high fertility rates are massively migrating to Europe and the US, while their population is steadily rising. On the contrary, developed nations with low fertility rates are now not able to occupy significant areas. Thus, such processes can lead to drastic changes in world power. To my mind, such an outcome is more realistic than the probability of a severe population decline.

Book Relevance

Regarding the fact this book was written in 2019, its relevance seems challenging to contradict. However, the questions discussed in the book are also of rising interest in today’s society, and some new points of view and details on the issue are added almost every day. For example, the problem of rapid expansion of climate change all across the globe is compounded by human activities on a nearly daily basis. The dangers of over-consumption, caused by a growing population number, are now being discussed on every level of everyday life.⁶ For this reason, the facts provided to maintain the argument may become already outdated. The world population cannot face total extinction if the land people live on has a strong tendency of rapid destruction.

Conclusion

Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline is a book that consists of the idea of the world population’s tendency of disastrous decline after it gets its highest point. Although the arguments given in the text are quite reasonable, they still need a stronger validation by the actual statistics. Without confirmed facts, this book seems more of a subjective authors’ prediction about the future of our planet. To my mind, while these predictions may not be surreal, there are some issues that need more urgent actions and publicity. People need to focus on saving the planet to be able to preserve their population later in the future.

Bibliography

Bloom, David E., ed. Live Long and Prosper? The Economics of Ageing Populations. London: CEPR Press, 2019.

Brailovskaia, Julia, Pia Schönfeld, Yakov Kochetkov, and Jurgen Margraf. “What Does Migration Mean to Us? USA and Russia: Relationship Between Migration, Resilience, Social Support, Happiness, Life Satisfaction, Depression, Anxiety and Stress.” Current Psychology (2017): 1-11.

Bricker, Darrell, and John Ibbitson. Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline. New York: Crown, 2019.

Morland, Paul. The Human Tide: How the Population Shaped the Modern World. London: John Murray, 2019.

Toth, Gergely, and Cecilia Szigeti. “The Historical Ecological Footprint: From Over-population to Over-consumption.” Ecological Indicators, 60 (2016): 283–291.

Footnotes

1. Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline (New York: Crown, 2019), 1.
2. David E. Bloom, Live Long and Prosper? The Economics of Ageing Populations (London: CEPR Press, 2019), 32.
3. Paul Morland, The Human Tide: How the Population Shaped the Modern World (London: John Murray, 2019), 25.
4. Morland, The Human Tide, 28.
5. Julia Brailovskaia, Pia Schönfeld, Yakov Kochetkov, and Jurgen Markraf, “What Does Migration Mean to Us? USA and Russia: Relationship Between Migration, Resilience, Social Support, Happiness, Life Satisfaction, Depression, Anxiety and Stress,” Current Psychology (2017): 2.
6. Gergely Toth and Cecilia Szigeti, “The Historical Ecological Footprint: From Over-population to Over-consumption,” Ecological Indicators, 60 (2016): 283.