Brazil, Russia, India, and China are known as the BRIC countries. They are largely regarded to be strong economic powers that are also at a similar level of growth. They are the emerging ‘Big Four’ in terms of economic development. According to O’Neill (28), the BRIC nations are rapidly growing towards overtaking the United States as the current economic powerhouse. This paper asserts that in the next twenty years, the BRIC nations will replace the United States as the greater economic power.
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To begin with, it is prudent to note that the current pace at which the BRIC nations are developing is a clear indicator that their economic future is bright. While the G7 countries grappled with the recent global recession, most economic analysts argue that the BRIC countries were least affected (Kobayashi-Hillary 83). The developed world was devastated by this recession at the expense of the BRIC states. In addition, the G7 nations (including the United States) have experienced optimum economic progress for a considerably longer period of time. Therefore, the next two decades are highly likely to be accompanied by a declining economic trend. However, it is perhaps vital to explore the individual and individual economic strengths of the BRIC nations before making any valid conclusions.
The United States of America and other G7 nations are likely to be overtaken by the BRIC nations before the end of 2020s. South Korea and Mexico had similar economic strengths as BRIC nations before the close of 2005. However, initial analyses did not include the economies of these two countries because they were considered not to be at the same economic par with the BRIC countries. For a long time, BRIC countries have been classified under the OECD countries. It is imperative to note that the four countries have a combined world population amounting to slightly above forty percent. In addition, their combined landmass is more than 25% of the total global surface inhabited by man.
Some of the G7 countries have attained their economic powers by uniting or forming bilateral and multilateral relations in order to foster economic federation. Typical examples of this category include the European Union and the United States. As a matter of fact, most of the past analyses that have been done have largely concentrated on the individual BRIC nations without considering the possibility of these countries forming viable economic blocs. Nonetheless, the latest developments have vividly indicated that the BRIC countries have demonstrated interests in informing both the economic and political hubs and federations that can advance their global passions (Foroohar 6).
These countries are currently transforming their rapidly expanding economic strengths into powerful geopolitical clouts. As a follow up towards forging a common political and economic front, the first-ever summit was held by the BRIC member states was back in mid-June 2009. The key agenda of the summit was to fast track multi-polar world order, foster democracy, and also enhance viable relationships among the partner states. Three other summits have been held since 2010 in New Delhi, Sanya, and Brasilia. These are clear indications that the BRIC nations are indeed keen on forming a formidable block that will be in a position to compete effectively with other global players in the next two decades.
Scholarly attention towards the activities of BRIC nations has also been rife in the recent past. For instance, BRIClab was founded by Déséglise and Troyjo with the aim of offering in-depth scholarly materials that could review the rise of BRIC nations in terms of economic, political, and strategic wellbeing (O’Neill 26). In addition, graduate courses have been developed from this scholarly material. Such type of exposure to the rest of the world will give the required impetus towards the growth of these nations. For example, potential investors will be in a position to obtain the most vital information regarding investment opportunities available in the BRIC countries.
The thesis of global capitalism has been embraced by Brazil, Russia, India, and China as part and parcel of their growth agenda towards the next few decades (Sidaway 53). Hence, the BRIC nations are continually transforming their geopolitical systems so that they can be in tandem with the set goals and objectives. Some economists such as Goldman Sachs have reiterated that the services and manufacturing industries across the world will soon be controlled by India and China.
On the same note, raw materials required by manufacturing plants will be supplied by Russia and Brazil. If indeed the BRIC nations will dominate these key sectors in the next two decades or so, then the current major economic powerhouses such as the United States will experience a downward economic trend in terms of international trade volumes. Moreover, it is equally worth to mention that most investors will definitely have the desire to seek ‘fresher’ and more vibrant markets. As it stands now, the next investment opportunities will be widely opened among the BRIC member states.
Supplying resources, offering services the manufacturing products are still key areas of economic development that cannot be ignored by any serious global economic player (Smith par. 1). It is interesting to note that Brazil alone can cater to these three areas of economic development without relying on the other member states. This implies that the BRIC countries do not merely rely on the potential of one or two members. Each of the member states has the capacity to contribute immensely to the economic kitty, especially after formidable cooperation will have been formed among them. The next step that the BRIC countries are expected to take is to form a strong economic and political bloc that will advance their common ideals and aspirations (Firzli par. 2).
The Goldman Sachs report released in 2010 indicated that the equity market capitalization was no longer being dominated by the United States. The current trends reveal that China has managed to acquire significant market capitalization bearing in mind that it is a major supplier of both raw and manufactured goods in the US consumer market. If the current trend persists, China might become the most established equity market before the end of the 2020s. Even if aspects such as GDP and GNP are not put into consideration, it is profound to note that the large Chinese population is a single entity that will continue to drive its economy in the future decades (Elder et al. par. 3).
There are already clear signals that other stronger economies are being surpassed by some of the BRIC nations. For example, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Japan fell below that of China towards the end of 2010. This was not expected to happen that soon since Japan had dominated the second position for a long time.
To recap it all, it is imperative to reiterate that the BRIC nations will inevitably surpass the US and other global economic powers within the next two decades due to their massive resources, land surface area, and impressive human capital.
Elder, Miriam, et al. Who’s who: Bric leaders take their place at the top table. 2008. Web.
Firzli, Nicolas. Forecasting the Future: The BRICs and the China Model, JTW/ USAK Research Center. 2011. Web.
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Foroohar, Rana. What’s called a ‘global’ recession is in fact shrinking economies mainly in the West, not the East. 2009. Web.
Kobayashi-Hillary, Mark. Building a Future with BRICs: The Next Decade for Offshoring. London: Springer, 2008. Print.
O’Neill, Jim, BRICs could point the way out of the Economic Mire. 2008. Web.
Sidaway, James. Geographies of Development: New Maps, New Visions? The Professional Geographer, 64 (2002): 49-62. Print.
Smith, Jack. BRIC Becomes BRICS: Changes on the Geopolitical Chessboard. 2011. Web.