The top ten trading partners represent 66.90% of U.S. Imports, and 61.52% of U.S. Exports in goods. The top ten trading partners of US most recently (November, 2008) recorded in the website which are for Year to Date Total goods in billions of dollars for their total trade in the same month includes Canada (41.8), China (33.5), Mexico (27.4), Japan (15.2), Federal republic of Germany (11.5), United Kingdom (7.6), Korea South (6.0), France (5.5), Netherlands (4.9), and Brazil (4.9) in that order from top to bottom. Although the last two have the same totals for trade, Netherlands is placed in the ninth position likely because it has more volumes of exports than Brazil (U.S. Census Bureau).
The countries that can be found in the top ten trading partners list of U.S. and have surplus in Year To Date Surplus in Millions are Netherlands (1,704.23 17,065.73) and Brazil (326.32 1,804.96), for November 2008. The countries that appear in the top ten trading partners list and have deficit in Year To Date Deficit in Millions China (-23,057.21 -246,453.05), Japan (-4,970.58 -67,397.31), Mexico (-3,515.38 -60,296.50), Canada (-3,340.77 -71,854.18), Federal Republic of Germany (-2,762.49 -39,575.21). By comparing the three, we can therefore deduce that a half of the top ten partner-traders of U.S in the month of November 2008 have deficit whereas only 20% of the top ten have surplus. The countries in the top ten surplus list are poorly represented in the top ten trading partners list while the top ten group in the deficit region is represented by a half (U.S. Census Bureau).
Beige Book is the report published eight times a year containing anecdotal information on current economic condition in every District which is gathered by the Federal Reserve Bank in that district. The information is gathered from interviewing economists, market experts and other sources and through reports from bank and branch directors. Information is summarized in the beige in district and sector and the designated Federal Reserve Bank prepares an overall summary of the twelve district reports on a rotating basis (FRB: Beige Book).
There was a sizeable reduction in prices to consumers in the majority of retail stores over the holiday. In Cleveland district, the downward trend in raw materials prices had started to level off and pricing of manufactured products remained relatively stable, compared to the slightly quicker pace of rising raw material prices in Richmond, and reported reduction in commodity prices by some manufactures in Philadelphia.
Further on consumer spending, retail in the District of Cleveland was reported to have fallen flat down in November on a month over month basis which was hand in hand with the negative retail sales in most district on the holiday season, although discount stores faired well in this region.
Although there were mixed expectations among retailers in Cleveland district, the rest of the retailers in Philadelphia, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts expected continued weakness or sluggish sales. There was a watchful expectation among the Boston district retailers (Federal Reserve Bank of Luis).
The U.S leading indicators are up by 0.3% although they decreased by 0.4% in November based on the revised data showing the leading economic index to be 99.5 (2004=100) according to the release on Monday 26, January 2009 by the conference board (The Conference Board, 2009). The leading economic index declined 2.5% in the then last six months through to December last year. Three out of ten components advanced that period.
In December there was a modesty rise in the Leading Indicators as a result of very large and continued positive contribution from real money supply. Continued declines in building permits, supplier deliveries, building permits and initial claims of unemployment were offset by the help of the positive contribution of the yield spread. During this month, only four out of ten indicators making up the leading economic index increased.
The positive and the negative contributors to the four of the ten indicators that make up the leading economic index are
- From the largest positive to the lowest positive contributor: money supply, interest rate spread, manufacturer’s new orders for consumer goods and materials, and manufacturers’ new orders for non defense capital goods
- From largest to the least negative contributor: “building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and stock prices” (The Conference Board, 209).
It is reported that amid further contraction in employment and industrial production, there was a sharp decline in the composite index fell in December last year. In a six-month span, the CEI has declined by -2.2 % in the period through December according to the conference board. CEI had its largest decrease since 1980 in the then past six months period (reference to month of November) and its peak on November 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau). The leading index changed by -1.0 r % in the month of October, -0.4% in the month of November, and 0.3% in the month of December. Coincidental Index changed by 0.3%, -0.3p% and -0.5p% in October, November, and December consecutively (U.S. Census Bureau).
References
FRB: Beige Book. 2009. “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District”. Web.
Summary of the Beige Book. 2009. Web.
The Conference Board. “Global Business Cycle Indicators”. 2009. Web.
The Conference Board. Leading Economic Index (LEI) For the U.S. AND Related Composite Economic Indexes for 2008. Web.
U.S. Census Bureau. Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. has a Trade Surplus. 2008. Web.
U.S. Census Bureau. Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. has a Trade Deficit of 2008. Web.
U.S. Census Bureau. Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. trades of 2008. Web.