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Weather Forecasting and Its Development Prospects Research Paper

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Updated: Sep 25th, 2020

Abstract

The given paper delves into the peculiarities of weather forecasting, its progress, and approaches that are used today to achieve the increased accuracy of data and mitigate the negative impact of natural disasters on people. The rapid rise of technologies preconditioned the appearance of significant shifts in forecasting methods. In this regard, the document provides a detailed outlook on the tools used to measure seven main variables that impact the weather in certain regions and precondition one or another natural phenomenon. Taking into account the fact that processing of all these aspects demands extrapolation and consideration of oscillations in the above-mentioned variables, the effect a single mistake in calculations might have on the final result is also discussed. Additionally, the perspectives related to the development of weather forecasting are outlined and discussed. At the end of the paper, the conclusion is given.

Introduction

We live in the age of digital technologies. Every day we could observe the appearance of new and obsolesce of outdated approaches. We use hundreds of devices and obtain information from unique sources that were not available to us before. These facts could not but impact our lives and the whole world. The usage of new and more accurate data provides us with numerous opportunities to predict the way our world and society will evolve. Very often new and improved methods help us to avoid serious devastations or deaths as they are implemented in the spheres of human activity which are crucial for the efficient functioning of any community. Weather forecasting is one of these spheres as it is one of the oldest attempts to understand the mechanisms according to which our world functions. It evolved along with our science and acquired new methods to analyze data collected with the help of observations and specific equipment.

Narrative

At the moment, meteorology is a set of atmospheric sciences that incorporates chemistry, atmospheric physics, and other branches to accomplish weather forecasting and provide credible data about various natural phenomena (Dunlop 9). It is a complex sphere that uses the latest technological advances to guarantee the credibility of findings and minimize the probability of error. The importance of this very science in the modern world could hardly be overestimated. Numerous hurricanes, eruptions, floods, and other disasters could be taken as evidence for this statement. Using the latest technologies, we could obtain relevant data and warn people about the great threat that exists at the moment. In such a way devastations could be minimized and human losses avoided. It is crucial to continue the further evolution of the given science and guarantee that the accuracy of final data will be close to absolute and the tiniest shifts in atmospheric fronts or other processes will be noted and considered.

Besides, according to the latest research findings, seven fundamental variables should be measured to create an accurate forecast. These are temperature, pressure, humidity, density, and the three main wind directions (Ahrens 20). They precondition all alterations in weather and impact the climate greatly. For this reason, modern meteorology is focused on the improvement of the methods that are used to measure these very variables (Ahrens 23). The fact is that the enhanced data will contribute to the greater accuracy of the final results and help people to monitor weather changes more efficiently. The evolution of this very science is focused on attempts to improve the approaches used to measure these variables and predict natural disasters. The fact is that the forecast quality depends on the quality of the initial data and the accuracy of the final measurements. However, these above-mentioned variables are extremely changeable and could be characterized by the appearance of numerous alterations in short terms. For this reason, new technologies and algorithms are used to increase the quality of findings.

Considering the above-mentioned information, the modern meteorology tends to use complex models that could help to predict the alterations in weather fronts, and other variables that might impact the climate. These models are characterized by the increased accuracy and ability to trace the slightest alterations in the introduced data. Moreover, the usage of modern powerful computers helps specialists working in the sphere process huge amounts of information and provide final results in short terms. The efficiency of this model also depends on the initial data. For this reason, many innovations are also used in this very sphere. Atmospheric monitoring satellites are explored nowadays to trace the alterations in weather fronts and collect the data which is needed to create the weather forecast and help people to predict their further actions (BarCharts 11). Furthermore, there is the practice of parametrization which could be defined as an attempt to incorporate data which is obtained from different sources, cloud microphysics, investigation of variables, etc. (Dunlop 44) The newest technologies are used to acquire data which is related to all significant processes and help specialists to conclude.

We could also say that if to compare methods that are used today with previous ones, great progress could be admitted. At the very beginning of this very science, priests used to haruspicate and make their forecasts. Today we use a much more scientific approach that differs from the forecasting methods we explored even several decades ago. For instance, the exploration of space and the first satellites provided us with the opportunity to collect new and more credible data (BarCharts 34). Additionally, there is the numerical prediction of weather that was born in 1901, and since that time our approach had altered significantly (Ahrens 43). Several decades ago the accuracy of initial data was much worse and, as a result, we were not able to predict the alteration in weather fronts in the way we do it today. Finally, meteorology nowadays could be described as computer science that benefits from the usage of the newest technologies and explores different models. These very innovations are the key to the successful functioning of modern meteorology and its further rise.

Therefore, the usage of the latest approaches in science minimizes the probability of mistake, but not excludes it. Variations and processing errors could accumulate over multiple forecasted periods and contribute to wrong conclusions. For instance, investigating alterations of a certain weather front, researchers collect the data related to one of the above-mentioned variations, for example, pressure. The initial data is recorded and will be used when tracing the evolution of the weather front and its peculiarities. A researcher will later compare it with a new set of data about pressure. However, because the first measurement was false, a new one would also suffer from a lack of accuracy. In such a way, every new forecasted period will contain a mistake, and the credibility of final data could be doubted.

The complexity of weather forecasting and the great effect a single mistake could have on the final result could be demonstrated using a mathematic perspective. For instance, trying to predict the further evolution of a certain natural phenomenon, a researcher introduces false data about the temperature. The model will take it as the initial one and use it to calculate temperature alterations over time. Besides, mistakes will accumulate in arithmetical progression, and new sets of false data will appear. In case it is a long-term forecast, the results will be completely wrong and different from the initial data greatly.

Nevertheless, we could state that the further evolution of meteorology and the appearance of new and more complex methods to collect data are inevitable. The given science if one of the most important ones in the modern world as it helps to protect people from natural disasters, avoid devastations, and make farming more efficient. Additionally, considering the modern rise of technologies, we could state that the appearance of new devices to measure seven variables could be one of the possible ways to attain the increased accuracy of data.

Summary

In conclusion, we could state that a significant increase in the efficiency and accuracy of measurement in the sphere of meteorology could be observed. The exploration of innovative approaches, computer models, and satellites helps to enhance the quality of findings and weather forecasts. However, there is still a great probability of a mistake, and it means that further improvement is needed.

Works Cited

Ahrens, Donald. Meteorology Today: An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and the Environment. Cengage Learning, 2012.

BarCharts. Meteorology (Quick Study: Academic). Quick Study, 2012.

Dunlop, Storm. Meteorology Manual: The Practical Guide to the Weather. Haynes Publishing UK, 2014.

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