Introduction
Modern civil aviation is rapidly developing, becoming more affordable, and presenting increased opportunities for domestic and international tourists. Where once flights were the prerogative of only the elite segment of society, especially with the advent of low-cost airlines, regular promotional offers, and discounts, flights have become much more accessible to the average member of society (NASM, 2022; Cook and Billig, 2017). To maximize their profits and optimize their use of resources, airlines must resort to a thorough analysis of operational offers, including marketed offers. The main reason to analyze a route is to determine a particular route’s profitability. Airlines need to ensure that a route’s revenue is sufficient to cover the costs of flying that route, including fuel, maintenance, and crew salaries (Berawi et al., 2018; Wu, 2010). In addition, airlines consider other factors when deciding whether to operate flights on a particular route: the demand for transportation on a given route, competition from other airlines, and availability of aircraft and crews (Medina-Muñoz, Medina-Muñoz, and Suárez-Cabrera, 2018; Cook and Billig, 2017). By analyzing the benefits of specific routes, airlines can make decisions about which routes to operate and how to allocate their resources most efficiently. This project investigates the case of the fictional company EdmundsAir, which operates intra-European commercial passenger transportation.
This research project analyzes EdmundsAir, whose flights are operated with Airbus A319Neo. This makes it possible to optimize the company’s resources and significantly ensure uninterrupted maintenance. The Airbus A319Neo is a globally recognized environmentally friendly Airbus product, further building customer confidence and positively impacting customer loyalty (Duvelleroy, 2021). The flights connect London Luton Airport with several European countries, making it easy for international travelers to travel for classic tourism, family, or business trips. In particular, the leading destinations for EdmundsAir from Luton are Frankfurt, Brussels, Brač, Athens, and Geneva, and in addition, the airline operates regular flights to Geneva ↔ Frankfurt and Frankfurt ↔ Brussels. The peculiarity of these routes is that they take place in winter, from December to February, which creates challenging weather conditions for transportation, especially for the countries of Northern Europe. After a thorough analysis of the medium-term profitability of the routes, Luton ↔ Geneva was chosen as the most attractive one.
Luton ↔ Geneva route connects the UK and Switzerland countries, allowing tourists to travel between them. The total projected travel time is 1 hour and 30 minutes, and the calculated walking distance is 832 kilometers. From Luton Airport, departures are scheduled on Saturdays and Sundays from December through March. From December to January, flights depart at 6:45 a.m., arrive at 8:15 a.m. and 6 p.m., and up to 7:30 p.m., respectively. Return departures are scheduled at 9:00 and 8:15 p.m. and arrive at Luton Airport an hour and a half later. The schedule changes slightly between February and March, with departures from Luton Airport at 6:15 and 7:00 p.m. on Saturdays and only at 10:00 p.m. on Sundays. Return routes are scheduled for Mondays at 00:15, Saturdays at 8:15, and Sundays at 21:15. Thus, the total number of weekly flights from February to March is lower than two months earlier due to assumptions in the tourist attractiveness of the route in connection with the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, as well as the increased activity of local ski resorts.
Route Evaluation
Related Aeronautical Information
The aeronautical information may include data about the location and operation of airports, navigation aids, regulations for the use of airspace, weather conditions, and other essential data that pilots need to know to operate aircraft safely. Luton (EGGW) is located in Luton, England, about 45 kilometers northwest of London (Maliar and Saliuk-Kravchenko, 2020). It is a busy international airport serving many destinations in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. As of February 2022, the total number of winter tourists using EGGW was 1,640,579, about 4.12 times higher than in February 2021 (LLA, 2022). The increase in popularity may be due to the recovery of tourist connections after the COVID-19 pandemic. Official airport documents show that more than three million passengers used the airport’s services from winter until 2020 (Abu-Rayash and Dincer, 2020). Approximately 2/3 of passengers using EGGW are EU residents with no barriers to interstate air service between member countries. Thus, EGGW is again gaining in tourist popularity and becoming an attractive gateway for local and foreign tourists wishing to visit European destinations.
Geneva Airport is located in Cointrin, Switzerland, about 4 kilometers northwest of Geneva. It is a central hub for Swiss International Air Lines and serves many destinations throughout Europe and beyond (Häberle, Sievers, and Stölzle, 2022). As a destination, Geneva Airport (LSGG) is a popular location in terms of transport accessibility, allowing incoming tourists to access the city center and explore the local attractions easily. Thus, 514,303 tourists used LSGG airport services during the winter of 2021, which is about nine times less than the same period a year earlier (GA, 2022). This deviation, as with EGGW, is most likely due to the disruptive impact of restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (Abu-Rayash and Dincer, 2020). Nonetheless, before the pandemic, LSGG performed well in passenger traffic, serving at least 4-5 million passengers annually during winter (GA, 2022). Thus, in terms of aeronautical attractiveness, the airports of departure and destination are popular with local and foreign, mainly from the EU countries, tourists.
A unique feature of this route is the geographical and weather conditions that make transport accessibility difficult. As shown in Figure 1, the route from Luton to Geneva passes through the English Channel, France, and is close to the foothills of the Swiss Alps. Although aircraft land in predominantly flat areas of Switzerland, the mountainous sub-climate can pose problems even for experienced pilots (Heintzman, 2021; Wagner, 2019). In winter weather, landing difficulties can be associated with excessive fog, precipitation, and icy runways, especially since LSGG has only one (Häberle et al., 2022). Since the planned route is a winter route designed mainly for ski tourists, there may be some problems with landing. Otherwise, there are no geographical obstacles to doing the route when there are no climatic barriers.
Relevant Regulatory Requirements
The main regulatory requirements for all European civil aviation carriers are specified by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA, 2022a). The last EASA update was issued in 2019, with the foundation of the regulations unchanged. Specifically, EASA covers the design, manufacture, maintenance, and operation of aircraft, as well as pilot training and licensing, in a way that achieves civil aviation priorities, namely safety and continuous system improvement. Also worth noting are the regulations in the field of anti-terrorism security: the Tokyo Convention, 1963, the 1970 Hague Convention, the 1971 Montreal Convention, and the 2010 Beijing Convention are the major international agreements governing civil aviation security rules (UN, 1963; HCCH, 1970; UN, 1971; ICAO, 2010). These conventions shape the strategies and actions crew members and airport staff should take if a threat is detected, as well as emphasize opportunities to minimize such risks. In addition, in order to operate commercial flights, EdmundsAir must have a valid operator’s certificate and meet other regulatory requirements, such as having the necessary insurance coverage and complying with safety and security regulations.
No special visa for English tourists traveling to Switzerland is required, and visits are free. Temporary restrictions include staying in the country of destination for no more than 90 days within 180 days, with visits to other Schengen countries during these six months added to the limit of 90 days. Other temporary formats require tourists to obtain a special visa, a work, student, or family visa. Tourists are not required to provide evidence of vaccination against COVID-19 to visit Switzerland (GOV UK, 2022). There are certain passport restrictions for tourists, namely the need for a “fresh” passport and its validity. Similar rules apply for the return trip from Geneva to Luton.
Potential Aircraft Limitations and Requirements
Several limitations and requirements exist for an aircraft departing from Luton to Geneva. As it is proposed to fly the A319Neo, the main technical limitations are the need for scheduled inspections (“A”) every 120 days and thorough (“C”) inspections every two years. The maximum takeoff weight limit for the A319Neo is 75.5 tons, and the maximum landing weight is reduced to 63.9 tons due to fuel burn during flight and taxiing (Airbus, 2022). The design feature of the board does not allow for more than 160 seats, which limits the touristic possibilities of flying more people simultaneously. At the same time, the flight range for the aircraft is 6850 kilometers, which is within the previously calculated range.
Limitations may also be imposed on the route itself: during the flight, the aircraft moves through the territories of three countries (UK → France → Switzerland), so the airspace requirements of each country must be taken into account. Most of the time, on a given flight, the aircraft is over France, which means that the provisions of the French Civil Aviation Authority apply to it (DGAC, 2022). Some significant provisions include requirements for permission to enter French airspace, restrictions on the use of certain types of aircraft, rules on the transport of dangerous goods on board aircraft, and restrictions on the use of certain flight maneuvers, such as flying below a certain altitude or flying too close to other aircraft. Deviations from pre-designed routes or unforeseen changes in echelons are evidence of routing violations and could be perceived as an emergency or a terrorist takeover of an aircraft (Sandamali, Su, and Zhang, 2019; Pilot Institute, 2022). EdmundsAir must obtain additional takeoff and landing permits from local airports, which may also restrict the acceptance or dispatching of aircraft. EASA also imposes restrictions on all aircraft that fly within the European Union: requirements include mandatory crew member licensing, documentation, and accountability (EASA, 2022a).
In case of unforeseen circumstances, additional restrictions may be imposed on the flight. During weather changes, increased fog, or snowstorms, EdmundsAir flights can be postponed or canceled altogether. Such circumstances include geopolitical crises, resulting in flights over airspace being drastically prohibited for specific states or airlines. Examples of such bans include complete restrictions on civil aviation flights over Ukraine and Afghanistan (Breslin, 2022; EASA, 2022b; Psyllou and Majumdar, 2019). If the restrictions become known only during the flight, it is the responsibility of air traffic controllers to inform pilots about them.
Flight Preparation and Routing
For EdmundsAir flights, pre-flight preparation and routing are mandatory. The basis of these processes is pre-flight route planning subject to changing meteorological and air navigation circumstances (Wu, 2010). Classically, specific planning steps include AIS briefing, meteorological briefing, route selection, chart preparation, and flight plan preparation (SkyBrary, 2021). Immediately prior to flight, pilots should review NOTAMs to familiarize themselves with critical flight information and any changes that may have occurred in the country’s airspace (FAA, 2022). Pre-flight preparation also determines the weight and balance of the aircraft to ensure that it is within the limits specified in the aircraft’s flight manual. The functional point of such planning, however, is to ensure that the flight is as safe as possible and make the most efficient use of available resources, for example, by selecting the safest route that burns the least amount of fuel. For example, the Luton ↔ Geneva route can be implemented directly. However, in case of unforeseen circumstances and a flight ban over France, EdmundsAir can use two alternatives, as shown in Figure 2. This is why air navigation regulations require that aircraft always carry more fuel than the minimum required, just in case of contingencies (Maaz, 2022). Flying over Belgium and Germany can be more difficult because of the mountainous terrain of the Alps along the route, while flying over Spain occurs mainly over the Bay of Biscay. In reality, such routes will cost much more fuel because of the higher circle distances, but such a decision can be made in case of critical necessity.
Separately, it should be noted that pre-flight preparation includes a complete inspection of the aircraft, including structural and technical features. The inspection is performed by the departure airport’s security service and flight engineers and crew members. This examination aims to ensure that the aircraft is safe before a flight, including the increasing terrorist threats (Michalski et al., 2020). If any breakage or foreign objects are detected, employees should report it to their superiors and security services.
Financial Considerations of the Route
In terms of economic considerations for the Luton ↔ Geneva route, EdmundsAir needs to evaluate the following attributes for the profitability of the destination. Specifically, these include operating costs (fuel and aircraft maintenance costs), crew salaries, tax levies (airport taxes and state taxes), marketing campaigns to promote the destination to tourists, and administrative costs such as rent, utilities, and nonoperating staff salaries. Specific financial calculations can be inferred based on the characteristics of the aircraft used. Since the Airbus 319Neo seats an average of 160 passengers and the total distance between airports has been defined as 832 km, the average cost of such a one-way flight ranges from €129,100 to €388,900, depending on the type of fuel used, with an average cost of €223,800 (Aviapages, 2022). The average salary per pilot in the UK is €39,042 (there are two), and a flight attendant is €28,438 (up to four) (Indeed, 2022). Thus, fuel and crew salaries alone can cost up to €415,636, which does not include additional direct and indirect costs.
From these calculations, it is obvious that EdmundsAir should receive at least €2,600 per passenger per ticket for the Luton ↔ Geneva route. However, it is obvious that this cost of the ticket is extremely excessive, so EdmundsAir spreads the costs among other flights and makes an additional profit, including through loyalty systems, which means that the airline as a whole can claim a profit. In addition, when setting the final airfare price, EdmundsAir must examine competitive offers in order to offer customers better deals and artificially increase demand. If demand for the destination turns out to be high on its own, however, EdmundsAir can set higher prices for airfares. The final calculation of the profitability of such a route must be determined through the rate of return. Thus, EdmundsAir needs to take into account the rate of return the company wants to achieve on the route: this depends on a variety of factors, including the cost of operating the route and the expected demand for flights.
Flight Scheduling Challenges and Solutions
Scheduling does not consider that unforeseen circumstances may affect shifts in departure or arrival times or cancel a particular flight altogether. Nevertheless, some flexibility in this scheduling is implied because the ultimate goal of EdmundsAir is to maximize profits (Qi et al., 2020). Specific factors that can lead to problems with flight scheduling from Luton to Geneva are meteorological conditions, airspace bans, and a sharp decline in demand (Wu, 2010; Cook and Billig, 2017). The decline was particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic when airline services were used by significantly reduced numbers of passengers (Dube, Nhamo, and Chikodzi, 2021; Abu-Rayash and Dincer, 2020). Shifting flight departure times affects the company’s profits, as it becomes responsible for providing passengers with hotel and meals, thus incurring costs (Moro et al., 2020; Wu, 2010). If the flight turns out to be canceled entirely, EdmundsAir’s operating costs become the cost of pre-flight aircraft maintenance and refueling, as well as rent for the use of airport services. Changes in flight schedules prove to be an issue for EdmundsAir that must be resolved.
Every airline is interested in increasing stability and flexibility in flight planning, so many solutions have been gathered. The most fundamental is laying down additional budgets based on assumptions about possible shifts. The monetary responsibility for this rests with the passengers, who, at the increased price of airline tickets, are paying for EdmundsAir’s risks. However, it is clear that in a highly competitive civil aviation market, increased ticket prices can be detrimental to the success of a particular airline (Cook and Billig, 2017). More innovative schedule planning technologies include the use of AI to study the accuracy and reliability of a particular flight program, automated computing, and machine learning algorithms to use past flight data to build optimal programs (Barlow, 2019).
Management of Potential Hazards and Disruptions
The Luton ↔ Geneva route is dominated by a Western European oceanic climate, with mild to moderate temperatures throughout the year (LibreTexts, 2022). As shown in Figure 3, the predominant wind directions at 9,000 meters are northwesterly. The wind speed drops rapidly along the route, and the rounded values for Luton are 15 m/s and about 3 m/s for Geneva. It is also worth understanding that with the route chosen, the aircraft is flying over the English Channel, for which there are known historical cases of storms and hurricanes (Chessum, 2022). Meteorological conditions should include the possibility of strong crosswinds, which will affect the softness of takeoff and landing and the possibility of turbulence zones. Although turbulence is not a constant value, it can be predicted: Figure 4 shows that this route is usually light to weakly moderate, which means there are still risks to the flight. Thus, one of the potential threats to aircraft movement on this route is abrupt changes in meteorological conditions, heavy snowfall, pressure fluctuations, and turbulence, which can be detrimental to flight capability.
Threats to the aircraft are terrorist attacks and criminal acts of miscreants. Referring to the Terrorism index as a country-specific metric of terrorist danger shows a value of 4.77 for the UK and 2.52 for Switzerland, which still does not rule out the possibility of terrorist attacks (VH, 2021). Other threats include faulty onboard systems, fires, and threats of birds getting into engines (Juračka, Chlebek, and Hodaň, 2021; Wang et al., 2022). Ongoing aircraft maintenance, a rigorous system of delegating responsibilities, close monitoring of passenger and baggage safety, a systematic approach, and accountability are measures to manage the latest threats (Wu, 2010; Weber, 2021). For every likely outcome of an emergency, there should be a protocol that all responsible parties must adhere to. If flight delays or cancellations occur, EdmundsAir must communicate clearly with passengers and provide them with appropriate benefits. Consequently, effective management of potential hazards at Luton and Geneva airports will require a combination of initiative-taking measures to prevent their occurrence and effective response protocols to minimize the impact of any disruptions.
Safety Management Challenges
Safety protocols for the route and the equipment used must be paramount at EdmundsAir. Significant challenges include equipment obsolescence, threats of terrorist attacks and political crises between countries, meteorological conditions, and other contingencies (Cook and Billig, 2017). A feature of civil aviation is that when an aircraft is already in flight, security and engineering control personnel have no physical access to it and can only communicate with pilots via radio navigation. During the move, much of the responsibility rests with crew members trained in threat countermeasures (Luo and Gao, 2022). There are also specific methods to prevent birds from entering the engine blades (Langston, 2021). These include increasing the speed of these blades, using safety nets, regular testing of engines, and controlling the fuel supply between engines as the situation warrants. Thus, civil aviation is associated with many risks and threats but can be overcome with adequate controls and accountable responsibility.
Conclusion
EdmundsAir’s preferred route, Luton ↔ Geneva, is in demand and attractive to tourists in the wintertime. The developed schedule allows for up to four direct and four return flights, depending on the winter month. The report included a technical, meteorological, and geographical analysis of the route and showed the principal risks and threats that the aircraft may face on this flight. Each risk was critically assessed, and appropriate steps and measures were proposed to minimize its effects.
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