Introduction
This paper explores trends in the gross domestic product (GDP) and income per capita in Ecuador, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Kenya, and South Africa with the goal of examining the relationship between fertility and literacy rates. The analysis is for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2016. A key section of the review involves a review of the theoretical foundation underpinning the relationship between literacy and fertility rates plus a review of existing works of literature that have explored the link between the two variables. The last part of the analysis is the conclusion section which summarizes the main findings of the study. An investigation of GDP per capita for the above-mentioned countries appears below.
Evolution of GDP Per Capita
The GDP per capita for Ecuador, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Kenya, and South Africa improved in 1990,1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2016 respectively (World Bank). However, some countries have performed better than others have. For example, India’s GDP increased by more than 100% between 1990 and 2016, while Ecuador’s almost tripled in the same period. Vietnam has also shown a strong improvement in GDP because it has increased by almost four times from 1990 to 2016 (World Bank).
The two additional countries analyzed in this review are Kenya and South Africa. Their GDPs per capita have also improved within the period of analysis because in 1990 Kenya had a GDP per capita of $930.0530264 and in 2016 it had $1143.065373. In 1990, South Africa had a GDP per capita of $5934.224116 and in 2016 it was $7488.990244 (World Bank). Although the two African countries showed a relatively dismal growth in GDP (relative to the Asian countries), they still registered an increase in the measure. Collectively, all the countries analyzed reported a significant increase in GDP.
Trends Observed in Income Per Capita
Vietnam
According to the data provided in the World Bank report, statistics relating to Vietnam’s income per capita in the 1980s seem to be missing. However, in 1990, it was reported to be $2.7. In 1995, it also doubled to $4.32, representing significant gains in the country’s income per capita earnings (World Bank). In 2000, a similar increase was witnessed because the income per capita was $6.5. The same narrative replicated in 2005 because the number was $8.3. In 2010, there was a sharp drop in income per capita because it declined to $1.12. The same low figure was reported in 2016 at $1.57 (World Bank).
The above findings show an interesting trend in the income per capita growth of Vietnam because, throughout the 1990s, this measure increased significantly and by up to a factor of two for every five years. However, in 2010 and 2016, this number drastically reduced by close to a factor of seven (World Bank). The causes of this decline need to be investigated further.
India
The income per capita in India in 1980 was $1.76. There was a marginal increase in this indicator in 1985 because it increased to $1.89 (World Bank). In 1990, there was a further marginal increase in income per capita to $2.09. In 1995, there was a marginal income growth, but in 2000, the subcontinent reported an income per capita of $2.59 and in the year 2005, it increased to $3.13. Comparatively, the income per capita expanded to $5.99 and $6.49 for the years 2010 and 2016, respectively (World Bank).
India has reported a steady increase in income per capita within the past eight years in review (1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2016). The growth in income per capita is partly brought about by changes in the country’s economic environment and the expansion of its manufacturing sectors. This dominance partly explains why it has emerged as one of the world’s strongest growing economies.
Ecuador
In 1980, Ecuador’s income per capita was $2.8, but in 2016, it increased to $8.35. In 1985, this measure increased to $3.1 and in 1990, no major increase was reported because it remained within the 3-percentile range (3.5). However, in 1995, there was a marginal improvement in this number because the World Bank reported an income per capita of $4.2. In 2000, there was also no major change in this number because the income per capita only moved by one decimal point to $4.3. However, in 2005, there was a significant gain of 1.2 percentage points and in 2010 the same indicator grew to $6.85. In 2016, it further increased to $8.35 (World Bank).
The above analysis shows a steady improvement in Ecuador’s income per capita within the eight years under analysis. Many factors could explain the steady increase in this economic measure, but the biggest “jumps” were registered in the year 2000 when the country undertook significant economic reforms. Before that (in the 1980s and 1990s), the country made insignificant gains, and sometimes the measure plateaued (World Bank).
Malaysia
Unlike other countries, Malaysia’s income per capita has been among the highest because in 1980 it was $4.41. In 1985, the Islamic nation reported an income per capita of $5.47, and in 1990, it was $7.86. In 1995, there was a sharp reduction in the number because it declined to $1.23. The same low performance was reported in 2000 when the indicator was $1.5, but in 2005, there was a slight increase to $1.96 and in 2010, it was $2.47. In 2016, Malaysia’s income per capita was $3.345 (World Bank).
There was a significant slump in Malaysia’s income per capita between 2005 and 2010. This could potentially be attributed to the global economic crisis that happened at the time. However, the average growth of this measure is about 5% per annum and, relative to its neighbors, Malaysia has performed well by increasing the standards of living of its citizens through the increase in the income per capita, especially in the 1980s and 1990s.
Thailand
The income per capita in Thailand has steadily risen from $5.5 in 1980 to $8.53, $1.4, $2.06, $2.13, $2.71, $3.27, and $3.85 in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2005, 2010, and 2016 respectively. Therefore, the highest income per capita was reported in the early 1980s and since then, there has been a sharp decline. However, it seems to have stabilized within the range of $2.13 and $3.85 in the last two decades (World Bank).
The findings noted above show that the income per capita, for Thailand has been relatively stable compared to other countries in the Asian region. The highest number was reported in the 1980s and it could have been attributed to a significantly low population at the time. However, the growth of the country’s varied economic sectors seems to have boosted income earnings in the last decade.
Kenya
The income per capita in 1980 in Kenya was $1.42. There was a marginal increase of this measure in 1985 to $1.6. In 1990, there was a further marginal improvement in income per capita, which saw the country increase its earnings to $2.09. In 1995, there was another marginal growth of income per capita to $2.09, while in 2000 the East African nation reported an income per capita of $2.59, and in 2005, it increased to $3.13. In 2010 and 2016, the same indicator increased to $3.99 and $5.49 respectively (World Bank).
Kenya is an example of an African country that has reported a steady increase in income per capita. Unlike some of its Asian counterparts, there have not been significant increases or decreases in the same measure within the period under assessment. Although the gains have been small, there has also been no negative growth of the same measure between 1980 and 2016.
South Africa
The income per capita in 1980 South Africa was $1.84. In 1985, there was a slight increase to $1.96. In 1990, there was a further marginal increase of this number to $2.15. Comparatively, in 1995, there was another improvement in income per capita ($2.29) and in 2000 the narrative remained the same because the figure increased to $2.61. The years 2005 and 2010 also saw other small expansions in income per capita to $3.16 and $3.67 respectively. Lastly, in 2016, the country’s income per capita was $4.08 (World Bank).
The above statistics show that, like Kenya, South Africa has also reported steady growth in its income per capita. The greatest leaps in income per capita were seen from 2000. However, the country’s gains have been marginally lower than their Asian counterparts (World Bank).
Theories that could Explain Income Changes
Morgan is among several researchers who have explained the growth in income per capita for different countries (265-268). He proposed the classical theory of economic growth, which suggests that economic benefits decline at the point of increased population growth (Morgan 265-268). The neoclassical growth theory can also be used to explain changes in income per capita for the above-mentioned countries. It suggests that such changes often occur through variations in capital requirements, labor, technology, and other factors of production (Morgan 265-268).
Additional Evidence
Additional pieces of evidence that support the role of the above theories in relation to variations in income per capita highlighted above are the social and economic changes that have happened in most Asian countries within the period under analysis (Morgan 265-268). Indeed, most of the countries examined in this report have witnessed significant economic growth rates, relative to their quest for adopting new technology, attracting capital, and improving governance structures. China is the best example of how some of these Asian economies have transformed the standards of living of their citizens by applying some of the principles of the neoclassical and classical growth theories (Morgan 265-268).
Relationship between Income and Fertility Rates
Figure 1 below shows the relationship between income and fertility rates.
Theoretical Analysis of the Relationship between Fertility and Literacy Rates
The correlation between fertility and literacy rates is positive. Some of the economic arguments advanced by EIUL to explain this relationship contradict this finding because they demonstrate that the higher the number of educated people, the more they are likely to rely on markets and public services to support their lives, as opposed to depending on their families (Morgan 266; The Economist).
The economic theory of fertility also contradicts the findings highlighted above because it supports a negative correlation between female fertility and literacy levels. Alternatively, it suggests that most educated women have a higher opportunity cost of bearing children compared to their uneducated counterparts because childbearing could result in lost opportunities to increase their income or to generate it in the first place (The Economist). The household bargaining model also supports the above view by explaining the relationship between literacy levels and fertility. It suggests that educated women have more bargaining power (socially) that enables them to determine their family size better than women who are not well educated (Morgan 265-268; Saurabh et al. 349).
Review of Literature
Several researchers have discussed the link between literacy and fertility rates. According to an article published by The Economist, the world is slowly moving towards a period where human fertility will represent a ratio whereby people will only be giving birth to enough children to replace them. The declining fertility rates have also been linked to changes in workplace dynamics. The EIUL explains this fact by showing that there are increasing numbers of older workers in many organizations today, compared to younger ones.
This situation is unlike the past where there used to be a larger population of young people in the society and a comparatively lower number of older persons. In many wealthy countries where fertility rates have been as low as 1.4 people for every woman, it has been difficult for companies to replace their workforce fast enough to retain a youthful population. Consequently, they have to rely on workers from developing countries, which have a substantially larger population of young people, to work in their factories (EIUL).
Workplace dynamics have been affected in this regard because the population of older workers is increasing at an alarming rate, while the population of younger employees remains the same or continues to decline because of a significantly lower fertility rate (EIUL). These workplace dynamics reflect lower fertility levels in developed countries and higher fertility levels in developing nations. It is not a coincidence that the same regions have varying literacy levels because there is a link between low fertility rates and high literacy levels in developed/wealthy nations, and a relationship between high fertility rates and low literacy levels in poorer countries.
The same findings are supported in an article authored by Pradhan, which shows that low fertility rates are associated with high educational attainment levels among women. The study was conducted in sub-Saharan Africa and it also demonstrated that high levels of educational attainment lead to lower numbers of children (Pradhan). This outcome was supported by data, which showed that women who had fewer children had a higher number of resources available for the child (Pradhan). Therefore, they benefitted from higher survival rates for both the mother and child (Pradhan). This fact was used as the most important link denoting the correlation between low fertility rates and high literacy rates in sub-Saharan Africa (Pradhan).
Conclusion
The link between fertility and literacy rates has been explored in several studies. In this paper, the researcher investigated trends in GDP and income per capita in Ecuador, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Kenya, and South Africa. The analysis was for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2016. A negative relationship between income and fertility rates was established. This finding is contrary to the evidence gathered in the literature review because researchers have identified a positive relationship between the two variables. Consequently, there is a need to investigate the reason for the divergence of views in future studies.
Works Cited
The Economist. “Fertility and Living Standards: Go Forth and multiply a lot less.” Economist. Web.
EIUL. “What’s Next Future Global Trends Affecting your Organization.” Future Trends. Web.
Morgan, Jamie, editor. What is Neoclassical Economics?: Debating the Origins, Meaning and Significance, Routledge, 2015.
Pradhan, Elina. “The Relationship between Women’s Education and Fertility.” World Economic Forum. Web.
Saurabh, Suman, et al. “Female Literacy Rate Is a Better Predictor of Birth Rate and Infant Mortality Rate in India.” Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, vol. 2, no. 4, 2013, pp. 349–353.
World Bank. “Data Bank: World Development Indicators.” World Bank. Web.