Abstract
The subchapter is devoted to dissecting Iran’s political system to see if there is any hope for change and reform in the country.
Elites and Institutions
The Supreme Guide is the most influential authority in Iran and even secular authorities should always seek his approval in law-making. The Supreme Guide directly controls the army, the Ministry of Justice, and the intelligence services. Other religious institutions are the Council of Guardians, the Assembly of Experts, and the Expediency Council. The Assembly chooses the Supreme Guide and, thus, provides the transfer of power, but it is not influential in legislation. The Council of Guardians checks the legislation for conformity with religious laws (Sharia) and has the right of veto.
The Expediency Council reviews legislation and ensures that there are no conflicts between different branches of power and that the operation of the state goes as planned. The Supreme Guide chooses the members of this council and its president. The Majlis and the president are elected and represent the secular law. The majlis has a say in economic and social policies, but its influence is restricted.
Iran has two conservatives and two reformative movements: The radicals want to maintain the prevalence of religion in law-making and support a socialist economy. They want to export Islamic revolution to foreign countries and are mostly supported by the working class. The conservatives share the views on religion with the radicals, however, they favor private property and minimal intervention of government into the economic system. They are supported by the Supreme Guide and the Council of Guardians. The pragmatists want to maintain the balance between secular and religious authorities, and the leader of pragmatists is now the head of Expediency Council. The liberals accentuate the importance of human rights and social justice and strive to decrease the influence of religious law.
The Implementation of Policy: The Bureaucracy and Security Apparatus
Bureaucracy provides the stability of the current elite, as it bans the bills that can put it in danger. The bureaucratic processes are caused by Iran having two governments and a fragmented elite that cannot make decisions quickly. The solutions for that included penalties for corruption and delegating some responsibilities to the private sector. Bureaucracy also makes public organizations ineffective, which decreases the quality of life in Iran.
There are three military organizations in Iran: the regular army, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij (a voluntary militia). Covert security structures include the Ministry of Intelligence, Security (VEVAK) and other secret security services. The regular army has been rebuilt by the clergy after the Islamic Revolution. The Revolutionary Guards sustain the changes achieved by the Islamic Revolution. The Basij members are not very disciplined but they have the support of gangs and mafia. Iran has a strong military system, and, while no one expects a coup to happen, the authorities would be in danger if it does.
The Group Basis of Iranian Politics
The confusing nature of Iranian politics has not only divided the elites, but the general public too. There are no official parties, but the four political movements fulfill their role. Their views are solid but due to lack of discipline, the members come and go. The alliances often form to support a candidate in the presidential elections.
Pressure Groups
The political initiative groups in Iran are formed by certain social groups and institutions, including bonyads, bazaaris, clergy, student movements, women’s rights activists, and opposition groups. Bonyads are the religious charities supported by shah’s money confiscated after the revolution. Bonyads may be in charge of as much as 10% of Iranian economy. However, some of them have gone bankrupt despite all the perks they get as charitable organizations. Bazaaris are the mid-tier entrepreneurs who influence the Iranian economic system with their political views. They control only 8% of Iranian economy and do not hold nearly as much power as they did before the economic reform. Clergy is very powerful because even the Supreme Guide is a member of it. Clergy aims to sustain the effects of revolution which united them. Students have previously challenged the rule of the shah, and now, they question the authority of the clergy. They are mostly reformists and seek a better future. Women have united to regain their rights and have succeeded in certain aspects. Women have already shifted some legislation concerning marriage towards equality. Opposition groups are banned in Iran, but an Iraqi revolutionary organization attracted some remaining left-wing Iranians.
The Context of Iranian Politics
Cultural, economic and international contexts are important for understanding the future of Iran.
Political Culture and Mass Behavior
Most Iranians strongly support Shi’a Islam, nationalism, and anti-Westernization. Due to the strict laws, Iranians often experience social alienation, distrust, and insecurity. Even though these values are widely supported, the politics of Iran is chaotic. Half of Iran’s population was born after the revolution, so the government has to push propaganda more to keep its power in the future.
80–85 percent of Iranian economy is controlled by the government. The country is torn apart by secular and religious authorities. Unemployment rates and prices are rising, even though the Iranian economy relies on oil. Foreign intervention into Iranian politics worsens the domestic problems. Civil negotiations are being shut down by conservative activists. Iran does not have the nuclear power to bring the plans to annihilate the USA and Israel to life, but Iranian nuclear bases were built in Pakistan. The UN is attempting to ease the tension between the countries.
Looking Toward the Future
Fragmented elite, foreign influences and a failing economy are likely to keep Iranian politics in stagnation. The military strength of the country will help the clerics remain in power.