Introduction
Epidemics and outbreaks of various diseases regularly occur throughout the planet. States and health systems must deal with them in order to minimize the negative consequences. One of the tools of such a fight is the analysis of outbreaks of viruses and diseases by scientists, which helps to establish the root causes of the incident. It is necessary to analyze the measles outbreak in California in 2014, and consider how the process took place and how it was controlled.
Approximate Duration of the Incubation Period
One of the main criteria for studying the epidemic is the incubation period of the disease. For more objective information, it is necessary to use a graph that clearly demonstrates the statistical data on measles. It is known that the first visit to the hospital was made on January 5, 2015, where the measles infection was confirmed. At the same time, the infected person visited Disney theme park in mid-December 2014, which is similar to the testimony of other infected people who later went to the hospital (Centola, 2020). Based on this information, it can be argued that the approximate incubation period of the disease was half a month, or 19 days. However, a more accurate conclusion would be 14 days, since the disease was felt earlier, but was not interpreted as measles (Centola, 2020). In the calculation of such data, the source of the epidemic was also taken into account, which is the only.
Type of Source
The most likely conclusion about the epidemic is its general type, since we are talking about the Disney park. According to the data on the epidemic of 2014 and the history of those infected, they all visited the same places in the form of a theme park in almost the same period. Of course, then the epidemic grew due to the fact that people returned to their places of residence, which spread the measles outside of California. However, such people should be considered carriers, but not sources, which means that it is impossible to argue about a mixed or punctate type (Tulchinsky, 2018). It is worth emphasizing that no specific species or other sources of the disease were identified in the park, only a commonplace. It should be borne in mind that the park is a large area with a large number of people, animals and insects, but the first or zero patient has not been identified (Centola, 2020). Based on all of the above, the epidemic is in the nature of a common source.
Peak of Occur
The next important criterion is the peak of the measles outbreak in the state. According to the schedule, it falls on the first half of January 2015, more precisely on January 2nd. This is explained by the fact that since the patients visited the Disney theme park on the same dates, their incubation period was the same (Centola, 2020). Consequently, after about two weeks, the largest number of cases of measles was detected. The situation was aggravated by the lack of preventive measures, such as a vaccine.
End of Outbreak
It is important to emphasize that the outbreak did not end on its own, but thanks to the help of the state and the healthcare system. First of all, this park was closed to eliminate potential sources of the disease, as well as to analyze the general environment. This allowed to prevent subsequent infections, and stop the number of infected at about the same level (Tulchinsky, 2018). The next intervention was to vaccinate citizens in risk states, which also slowed down the spread of the disease (Tulchinsky, 2018). Finally, the infected were in quarantine under the supervision of doctors, which contributed to their recovery and lack of contact with society (Tulchinsky, 2018). Thus, it was these actions of the health care system that helped stop the development of the epidemic.
References
Centola, D. (2020). How behavior spreads. The science of complex contagions. Princeton University Press.
Tulchinsky, T. H. (2018). Case studies in public health. Elsevier Science.