Executive Summary
Property markets are important pillars of any economy. The trends displayed in these markets determine how an industry performs. There is the need for appropriate research before an organisation can commit any finance into any property market. Some of the considerations that must be made include the performance of the regional local and international economies in the involved sector. The use of appropriate data must also be applied to substantiate the decisions made on the investments (Saggi 2013).
Rushcliffe Asset Managers is the UK operation of an international firm of fund managers, with £25bn of assets under management. The firm intends to spend £5bn in direct property market.
The research department is crucial in the provision of data to advice on the investment decision. The decision will be based on future weightings in three areas, namely the City, West End, and Docklands office markets in London; the Puxi and Pudong office markets in Shanghai’ and the downtown, midtown, and midtown south office markets in New York.
The data obtained in the study of the above office market was used in the preparation of this report, which contains the prospects for these markets over the next three years, the current trends, the threats, and opportunities within these markets. The approach for the report involved a study of secondary material such as market reports, professional and academic journals, newspapers, government reports, and statistics.
The report contains both qualitative and quantitative evidence to support the decisions taken in the respective markets. Quantitative evidence provided for these markets include local, regional and national economic data, rents and yields, vacancy rates, and development activity. Some of the qualitative material provided will include the pattern of land and property use, the quality and form of buildings and locations, planning policy, regeneration schemes, and any other factors that are considered relevant.
Shanghai Office Markets
Current Market Conditions
Shanghai is a modern city in China with experiences in development as witnessed in the mainland China (Zheng 2011). The city has experienced development over the last few years in keeping with the growth of the Chinese economy. Shanghai continues to be one of the strongest performers of the mainland cities of China. The GDP for the city alone had a growth rate of 13.5% recorded between 2000 and 2010 (Smith 2013).
Some of the developments in this city over the past decade include the transformation into an international financial hub occasioned by the decisions made by the state council in 2009 (Smith 2013). A 2013 joint index ranked the city the first among 45 cities in terms of growth and development in China, ahead of Hong Kong and other cities (Smith 2013).
The city also has some incentives that are meant to lure investors in the property markets. These incentives include a reduction in taxes and a decrease of procedures that are required in the setting up of branch offices.
The city has a growth in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of 20.5%, with over 50 regional headquarters being opened because of these changes (Smith 2013). Pudong recorded most of the above results, with the main section of growth being the Lujiazui district, which is an industrial zone (Frank 2013). This zone recorded an increase in stock of over 95% between the same periods.
Office Markets
Shanghai is experiencing growth in the office market occasioned by a number of rulings, policy changes, and better economic performance. Between 2000 and 2012, there was a recorded increase in the Grade A office market by 120%, with those available being 5.5m sq. metres by the end of 2012 (Smith 2013).
Pudong posted growth in demand for office space. The area has emerged from the traditional fishing economic activity and rice farming to boast of some of the most advanced skyscrapers in the country. The demand for office space in Pudong is also high, with the supply coming short of this demand in the period between 2000 and 2012 (‘Shanghai Offices Quarterly 2013).
The key contributor to the growth in the office space demand in this region of Shanghai is the entry of foreign investors with the need for local branches and franchises. The main users and occupiers of office space in the area, however, changed after the global economic crisis, with the local industries overtaking foreign ones, which were the most hit by the crisis (Jackson, Stevenson, & Watkins 2008).
The expatriate population is important in the determination of office space demand because most of these people are home renters whose number determines the demand for housing units and offices. There was an increase in this population by 48% between 2008 and 2010, with the population standing at 208,602 (Manaf et al. 2013). The occupancy rate in the city is reported to increase between 2011 and 2012.
This boost sparked another increase in rent in the same period (Frank 2013). Apart from Pudong, the other popular area on Shanghai for office space is Puxi, which has experienced growth in the demand for office space for both commercial and residential use. The area is being fronted as the leader in Grade A office space in the next few years.
Decentralised Office Market
Shanghai has invested in the development of decentralised Grade A space as a new policy in its office market. The city is a pioneer in grade A space in the mainland China, with an increase that is set to take place around the Central Business District (Cao, & Wang 2009).
The developments in infrastructure in and around the city are targeted to encourage the development of the city space outside the CBD, with this plan set to increase the economic outlook for the city (Braun 2013; Cao, & Edwards 2002). The metro rail is an example of infrastructure project with the aim of this development.
The decentralised strategy has proved to be a major step in the development of office space in Shanghai. More than half of tenants in the grade A office space are said to be former inhabitants of the CBD (Chen 2011). The decentralised office market has considerably grown over the last number of years in China, only constituting 331,000 sq.m of space in 2009. This later grew to nearly 1.8 m in 2013. More projects have been proposed to oversee the increase in this kind of office space (Qulin, & White 2013).
Most of the major developments in the decentralised Grade A space are planned for Puxi. The area is predicted to have the biggest share of these spaces in the near future (Ness 2000). Puxi is also set to benefit from the project based on the large population that occupies the place, with over 75% of the urban population in Shanghai living there (Lin 2010).
Puxi also has the largest share of the office space in the city, with the largest number of the Grade A office space being occupied by the population. The river in the city serves as a divide for the office space, with tenants choosing to live in one side of the river where the offices are located close to their workplace.
Most of the major macroeconomic indicators in the Chinese economy favoured the development of the real estate industry and property markets. The DGP is said to have increased by 7.8% for the first quarter of 2013, reaching RMB493.7 billion (Lasalle 2013). Some of the changes that were crucial are indicated in the table below.
Source: Knight Frank Research /Shanghai Statistics Bureau
The opportunities available for this market include the growing number of investors in the region, the growing infrastructure developments, and the changing of policies to newer and amore facilitative ones (Lasalle 2013).
Some of the other opportunities include the better regional and national economic performance, which will also oversee the development of the market and/or lead to growth. The rents have been increasing over the last few years in the areas of Shanghai. This can also mean better returns if investments are made in this sector of the industry.
Rent, Sales, and Investment in the Puxi and Pudong
Rent has continued to improve in Shanghai as stated above, with the average rent for Grade A offices being RMB9.1 per sq. m per day (Frank 2013). In Pudong and Puxi, the first quarter of 2013 was marked by an increase in office rent to reach RMB9.2 and 9.0 per sq. m per day respectively (Frank 2013). Pudong recorded the highest increase in the rent after being driven by the reduced supply compared to Puxi, which had a constant office space supply (Frank 2013).
Source: Knight Frank Research
The investments in Puxi and Pudong grew over the last decade. The most significant of this growth was observed over the last few years. The growth in investments and sales over the period was influenced by the corresponding growth in the economy, the investments in the sector, and the high returns expected in the preceding years (Lasalle 2013).
Examples of development activities that are set to influence the growth in office space include the urban metro linking the cities, the large infrastructure projects within Shanghai and the growing number of foreigners and their input into the Shanghai economy, and the national economy in general (Lasalle 2013). The main threats to the office market here include the strict government policies in some sectors such as the banking and insurance industries.
The pattern of land and property use in the city is mainly for rental purposes. Many companies are building the office space for rental purposes. The office blocks are the dominant buildings in the architectural marvel that Shanghai is putting up. The investments in office blocks have increased in the past three years, with most of the growth being propagated by the foreign investment taking place in the city.
Future Trends
The office markets in Shanghai and the property markets in general are expected to continue in the trend above. The rents in Puxi and Pudong are set to remain high, with property developers set to gain from the profit that the move generates (China real estate report: includes 5-year forecasts to 2017, 2013).
The supply for the office space in these areas is also set to remain below the demand, with this having positive effects on any investments in this market over the next three years (Qiulin, & Michael 2009). The trends on the renting of office blocks will also continue due to the restrictions on the purchase of office space in Puxi and Pudong.
In terms of demand, the well performing economy in the region and in Shanghai will encourage foreign investment over the next three years (Li 2011). The entry of multinational companies in the country and in Shanghai will drive the demand for office space. This will be a factor in the rents being paid. The inflow of expatriates into the region will be marked over the next three years. The combination of this and the above factor will also result in increased demand for office space (Hui, & Zheng 2012).
Other macroeconomic factors will see the office markets improve over the next three years to favour investment in this area. One of these factors lies in the policy formulation area where the authorities in the country have made Shanghai a shipping and financial centre for both China and the region (Lasalle 2013).
As companies invest in the port and the surrounding areas to tap the potential created by this new status, the demand for office space will increase. It is likely that the supply will remain low, thus driving the prices of office space and rent.
Based on the prospects that the Chinese economy, the region, and Shanghai hold in the office space markets in the next three years, it is necessary for Rushcliffe Asset Managers to invest. Of the £5bn that the firm intends to spend in the direct property market, the research department will therefore recommend that a significant part of the money be invested here. The exact amount that is proposed is £3bn, which will be a profitable investment.
The threats posed by the investment are minimal. The economy can withstand major changes on the global front. The Chinese economy also performed better in the wake of the global financial crisis compared to the UK and the USA, with China being a significantly safer place to invest (Thanasi, & Hysi 2013).
The better economic performance, sustained growth in GDP, and the economy are also favourable for investment in the property markets in China and Shanghai in particular. Between Puxi and Pudong, the area that the firm should invest more is Puxi because the statistical findings support the continued growth for this region over the next three years. This will be an advantage for the firm (Lasalle 2013).
London Office Markets
Current Market Conditions
London is the economic and financial capital of the United Kingdom. There has been observed trends in the property markets in the city. In the wake of the global economic crisis, there was poor performance of the property markets in the country. London was one of the cities affected. There was negative growth in the industry, with the market being reported to decline for the years following 2007 (Russell 2013). Measures were put in place in the industry and the economy in general. This move has meant an improved performance in the sector.
The major opportunities in the industry for the property markets and office market in particular lie in the strong economic performance that the city has posted over the last few years (Russell 2013). The UK economy has also been on a growing run, with recovery from the global crisis being evident.
The individual markets in the city are also on a growth path, including a recorded growth in the tourism and foreign investment. The use of office space in the city such as in Shanghai is also by local and multinational firms. However, local companies account for the larger proportion. The following is an analysis of performance for the office market across the City, West End, and Docklands in the city of London for 2013.
Since the 2007 crisis that has been reported above, there has been a reduction in sales since the last peak by 40%, with a resultant decline in rents by about 30% (Nygaard, & Meen 2013). Some of the likely effects of this outcome in the future include the weakening of the market as the demand for the office space deteriorates. Supply will also increase after the recovery period, thus further driving down the sales and rent (Nygaard, & Meen 2013).
The London office space market comprises five smaller markets, which are considered in the discussions in this industry. The largest two of these markets, however, are the West End and the City of London, accounting for about 75% of the total stock when combined (Nygaard, & Meen 2013). The West End market has generated considerable growth, with the market emerging stronger than other markets in terms of growth.
West End
In the first quarter of 2013, the West End office market had a take-up of 0.76m sq. ft. with this being an increase of about 8% of the previous year of 2012 (Russell 2013).
The 5-year average was however o.83m sq. ft. (Russell 2013). In this side of the market, the most dominant occupiers of office space are the financial service providers, which accounted for 22% of all lettings in the area (Russell 2013). The sector that had the second highest letting was TMT, with the main reason being its desire to diversify its services from the traditional markets.
The demands in West End for office space are customer driven, with the clients determining the exact amount and form of office space to be occupied. The traditional core in the area consists of Mayfair and St James. However, there are newer developments taking place in West End (Russell 2013). Some of the newer inhabitants of the TMT sector are now moving away from the traditional core, with investments taking place in the modern areas (Stevenson 2007).
The prime rents have also increased considerably. In the first quarter of 2013, St James and Mayfair reported an increase to £105 per sq. ft. (Russell 2013). Another part of West End that realised increased growth in the rent is the Northern of Oxford Street West area, with the highest record being £90 per sq. ft. that was charged in the region of 10 Portman Square (Russell 2013).
The West End core area has a restricted development due to scarcity of space. With this situation acting to limit the development in the area, the prime rents will continue in their upward trend. Available spaces around West End were also reported to fall to a value of 3.66m sq. ft., with this also contributing to the demand for space in the area (Russell 2013). There was market development in the office market at West End, with more space being added to the total space available. An increase of 1.6m sq. ft. was anticipated for 2013 (Russell 2013).
The vacancy rate in West End is declining, with the initial peak being realised in 2009 immediately after the recession (Russell 2013). The economy has responded slowly, with the decline slowing down until 2013. The peak in the vacancy rate observed in 2009 corresponded with a drop in the prime rents in West End. 2013 recorded significant improvements in this figure. The future trends that can be predicted in the values include a decrease in the vacancy rate, with a corresponding increase in the prime rents.
City
This region is another performing part of London office markets. It had been on considerable growth since the economic crisis that hit the region. However, the market has been experiencing considerable failures, with 2013 seeing a fall in the space to about 18% (Nygaard, & Meen 2013).
The first quarter of the year had a total area of office space let at 1.02 million sq. ft. (Nygaard, & Meen 2013). The major occupiers of office space in this part of the London market are insurance companies, with the sector accounting for a proportion of 27% of the space let in this period of the year (Nygaard, & Meen 2013). Some of the buildings in the area were already half pre-let before completion.
The City office space market has attracted a number of multinationals and local companies, with the local companies taking up the larger office spaces. The main local companies that have office space in the area include Tesco that has opened a branch at Farringdon and Genesis Oil and Gas that has a branch at St Pauls (Jones, 2013). 2013 saw an increase in the office space in the City’s office market although this was significantly lower as compared to West End’s growth in office space.
The rise in prime rents and a fall in the vacancy rates corresponded with those of West End, proving that the probable macroeconomic factor that occasioned the change was the global economic crisis or the national economic performance. The prime rents increased from the lows of 2009, with the vacancy rates decreasing over the same period (Nygaard, & Meen 2013).
The outlook in performance for this particular market looks less promising as compared to West End and other markets in London (Moran 2005). The demand for office space will likely improve although this improvement will not be enough to warrant investment in the market. The supply is also likely to increase due to the increased performance of the national as well as regional and global economies.
Docklands
Docklands is another of the markets that have established office markets. The main reasons for development in the office market in this part of land are the efficient infrastructure that it processes. The market has recorded a poor performance of all the other markets in London.
The development of office space in Docklands has significantly been on the decline, with only a few projects taking place in 2013 (Nygaard, & Meen 2013). One of the only major projects that took place here in 2013 in the development of office space is the construction of European Medicines Agency. This will contribute an additional 290,000 sq. ft. to the total office space in the area (Hendershott, Lizieri, & MacGregor 2010).
The prime rents in the area remained high. These rents are expected to remain high in the period over the next three years. The development of office space will however remain low. As such, the market is unlikely to peak. The main threats that the London office market faces are in the unstable markets and the low rents that are likely to emerge from the slowing industry (Mouzakis, & Richards 2007).
Future Weightings
The future of the London Office Market will see developments in some areas, with the negative performance being observed in other areas such as Docklands being persistent. The macroeconomic factors determining the performance of these office markets such as the economic performance for the UK are also likely to improve, although this case is unlikely to have any significant effects on the office markets.
The London economy is well out of the global economic crisis. However, effects such as the reduction in the demand for office space are likely to persist (Nygaard, & Meen 2013). The premium rents will also remain unattractive for investors, with this providing little return.
The regional and global markets will however continue to be favourable for investments in the London office market. Based on the considerations in the performance of the local and regional economies in London, the research department in Rushcliffe proposes minimal investment in this market.
The only promising office market in the London office market is the City office market, with the land and office use here being favourable for investors in office space. A recommendation, therefore, follows that Rushcliffe Asset Managers need to invest only a small proportion of the £5 billion. The exact amount proposed is £0.5 billion. This should be invested in the City office market. The rents in this part of London will be adequate to assure the company of appropriate yields.
New York Office Markets
The United States economy is one of the economies that were hardest hit by the global economic crisis, with the office markets in New York experiencing the effects of these conditions. The economy recovered in the years after 2009, with investments in the office markets all over the country taking an upward turn (Van Buren 2013; West 2011).
The office sector in the country, specifically New York, continued to improve in 2011 and 2013, with the sales volume increasing every year. This section is a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the New York office market, with the intention of predicting the future trends of the office markets in downtown, midtown, and midtown south office markets in New York.
Current Market Conditions
The New York Manhattan office market consisting of downtown, midtown, and midtown south has continued on a positive performance, with the transaction volumes improving every year since 2009 (‘Manhattan Office Market Decline Slowing’ 2009). There was growth in the transactions observed in the first and second quarter of 2013 (Pincus 2013), with this being a continuation of the trend observed in the previous years (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013).
The constructions in office space also improved, with the second quarter of 2013 standing at 13,287,564 square feet (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013). The European Debt crisis affected the office market in the market, thus causing delays in leasing by financial service firms.
Some of the other factors that affected the leasing include the regulatory policies in the US and their tax deficits (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013). Hurricane Sandy has had significant effects on the New York real estate markets. One of the results is higher rents (Pincus 2013).
One of the leasing activities that took place in the past year includes the lease renewal in midtown by Simpson Thatcher & Bartlett, with the amount of space being 595,000 square feet (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013). The other macroeconomic factors in New York remained favourable for the office market.
The measures put in place were sufficient to ensure that the unemployment rate reduced, with the second quarter of 2013 having a rate of 8.2% (Pincus 2013). A major project that will see the creation of more jobs in this market is the Chelsea Market expansion, with more than 1000 jobs being created in the end.
Midtown Office Market
The asking rate for Midtown increased over the past few years after the economic crisis (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013). The asking rate had reached $61.49 in the second quarter of 2013, with this being an improvement from the previous year’s asking rate of $59.79 (Pincus 2013).
The construction in this area of New York also improved, with 3.6 million square feet under construction in 2013 (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013). The leasing also improved in 2013, with the market having a number of leases above 100,000 square feet. Some of these leases include those made by Simpson, Thatcher & Bartlett, L’Oreal USA, and the lease by Metropolitan Pavilion, with the entire lease for each of the individual companies being over 200,000 square feet (‘Cushman to market midtown’s biggest block of office space’ 2013).
The sales in this part of town also improved, with some of those made being to Deusche Asset and Wealth Management (Haughney 2005). Some of the other sales made were also significantly large, with a number of them being above the $250 billion mark. The vacancy rates remained constant in 2013, with only slight changes from 2013.
The net absorption in this market also remained unchanged for 2013, with only a slight drop being recorded. Construction in the Midtown area increased, with the office space increasing significantly over the past few years (Cole 2011). The construction in these sectors is set to improve, with the spaces being utilised mostly by the local and multinational companies. Asking rents increased only significantly. However, the beginning of 2013 saw no changes in this portion of the market.
Midtown South
Just like the other office markets in New York, the Midtown South office market continued with positive performance experiencing positive growth in 2013 (Barbarino 2012). The net absorption however was poor performing, with the square feet reducing over 2013. The vacancy rates were unchanged in 2013 compared to other previous years.
The rate remained constant throughout the year. This submarket has remained attractive to investors, with the Chelsea district being among the top in the country (Rowan 2013, p. 15). The other attractive area in Midtown South apart from Chelsea is the Greenwich Village.
One of the investors that have recently taken up large office spaces in the form of leases is App Nexus, which took the largest lease for the year ended (Sandher 2012). The submarket also saw significant sales being made here, with one of these sales being to Clarion Partners for 277,412 square feet (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013).
Some of the other sales made in the submarket include the purchase of James Hotel made by Prudential Real Estate Investors, with other private investors purchasing office space in the area (Duncan 2013). The vacancy rates are expected to remain high over the next three years, with construction, asking rents, and net absorption increasing over the same period. The market is going to experience growth coupled by good economic performance both regionally and nationally.
Downtown
Downtown was one of the office markets in New York that had a different outlook over the past few years compared to the other markets. The asking rent remained lower compared to other office markets in the US, especially compared to the neighbouring markets (Beauregard 2005).
The rent has however improved over the years since the economic downturn in 2008. Some lease agreements were made in this submarket in 2013, with the major one being that by Nyack College totalling to 166, 385 square feet (Kane 2013). Some of the other leases made include those by Conde Nast and Green Ivy School (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013). The investments in this area included the transactions by 2 Rector Street worth $140 million (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013).
The overall vacancy has continued to fall in the Downtown New York submarket, with the average rent rate remaining high (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013). The net absorption has also increased over the last few years in this market. There will be an increase predicted in the next three years. Construction is likely to increase over the next three years, with the markets experiencing growth in this submarket.
Future Weightings
The New York office markets above are likely to improve over the next three years, with the trends set to remain the same as they have been over the last year. One of the driving forces in the improvement to be noted is the relatively strong economic performance that the economy in the US will see with the complete recovery from the economic crisis.
Another of the macroeconomic factors that will influence the growth in office spaces in New York is the creation of employment that the government has managed to achieve. The market will see an increase in the construction industry mainly in Midtown area, with the rents improving for maximum investment returns. The demand for office spaces is not likely to reduce over the next three years. This demand will be driven by the multinational companies and other local companies seeking to consolidate their hold on the local economy.
The opportunities available in the New York office markets include the presence of strong financial markets, the presence of adequate labour and construction supplies, and the high demand for office space (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013).
There are however several threats to investments in the office markets in the New York office market. Some of the threats to the office markets include the European arrears predicament that has led to postponement of leasing by monetary services institutions. Some of the other factors that may have affected the hiring in the office market in New York include the regulatory policies in the US and the tax deficits (Donohue, & Meadwell 2013).
In consideration of the above conditions in the New York office market over the last year and previous years, the market is likely to continue on a positive trend, thus favouring investment. Based on the considerations in the performance of the local and regional economies in New York, the research department in Rushcliffe proposes investment of the remaining money in the New York market, specifically in the Midtown submarket.
The investment in this submarket will continue improving, with the land and office use being favourable for investors in office space. A recommendation therefore follows that Rushcliffe Asset Managers invests £1.5 billion of the £5 billion. This investment will be favourable for the company, with minimal risks of low returns.
Conclusion
The analysis of the office market for the three major markets evaluated provides appropriate data to enable the prediction of the performance of these markets over the next three years. The best performing market and one that investors should invest in is the Shanghai office market, specifically the Puxi submarket. The office market here will continue with positive performance, with opportunities for development being high in the market.
The rents and investments in this market will be favourable for any investor in the market, with adequate returns for the same period. The London office market will be the worst performing of the three major markets, with the City submarket performing considerably better compared to its neighbouring submarkets in the London market.
The reduced construction, poor rent performance, and the slow economic performance in London are some of the factors that are likely to lead to the poor office market performance over the next three years.
The New York Manhattan office market consisting of downtown, midtown, and midtown south, office markets will experience considerable growth over the next three years, with this being driven by the strong economic returns and the investor confidence that has been observed in the recent past. Of these three markets, the Midtown office submarket will be the best performing, leading to more construction and reduced unemployment. The macroeconomic factors in the region and national economies will act to increase the performance of the industry, although this situation is unlikely to match the performance of the Chinese markets.
Because of the office market analysis, some of the recommendations of the research department in Rushcliffe Asset Managers can be made. The firm should invest the major proportion of money available into the Chinese office markets, specifically in Puxi office submarket in Shanghai. The amount that should be invested of the total £5 billion is £3 billion, which will be enough to guarantee maximum returns.
The investments should also include £1.5 billion in the New York markets, specifically in the Midtown submarket. The smallest proportion of this money (£0.5 billion) should go to the London office market, specifically to the City office submarket based on the quantitative analysis of market activity and qualitative assessments of market conditions, the analysis of pattern of land and property use, the quality and form of buildings and locations, planning policy, and regeneration schemes for these markets.
Therefore, with these expositions made in the paper on property market analysis, it suffices for any individual or organisation wishing to invest in the aforementioned regions to be aware of the region’s investment potential. This will help such a party of escape any risk of losing funds in case the region where the party has chosen to invest in fails to be productive.
As a result, such a party needs to have knowledge on market trend if making a profit is its core agenda. For an organisation wishing to invest in China, the study has provided a clear analysis of the regions, which it is supposed to avoid together with those that will be fruitful. Similarly, the study has also specified the amount that such an organisation can plan to invest in the property market.
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