Introduction
Risk assessment is one of the most essential activities vital for various organizations’ stable and safe work. It helps to evaluate the existing issues, determine the likelihood of a particular event and its consequences if it occurs, and take action to minimize the chance of an accident’s emergence. Moreover, analyzing the inherent and residual risks makes it possible to realize the importance and impact of various approaches and select the most practical ones. For civil aviation, risk assessment is a tool helping to protect passengers by investigating past events and using measures to avoid them in the future. Investigating the case of Nigerian airlines, such as Nigeria Air, flying to Dubai International Airport, and the risk of bomb or terrorist attack, it is possible to determine the importance of risk assessment procedures.
Point of Origin and Destination
The proposed case implies that Africa is the point of origin from which the plane departs. Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos is the country’s biggest hub, with thousands of passengers visiting it daily (“Air transportation data,” 2021). It is also one of the busiest airports in Africa, meaning there is a high risk of various accidents because of the numerous flights and the necessity to provide services to diverse clients.
The destination point selected for the case is the Dubai International Airport (DXB), one of the busiest hubs globally. The given route is popular as the passenger traffic continues to grow yearly. It might be a potential source of numerous risks that impact passengers and their safety. For this reason, risk assessment is vital for understanding the problems and how they can be addressed.
Risk of Bomb Threat
The risks of a bomb threat and terrorist attack are selected as the basis for the investigation. Thus, Africa is one of the regions characterized by increased terrorist activity. In the period from 2007 to 2019, the continent experienced 4,383 attacks, including numerous cases of bombing (“Terrorism in Nigeria,” n.d.).
It means that the selected risk is relevant to the region and should be considered by airlines when providing services to passengers. Dubai International Airport implements innovative safety measures to protect all individuals and reduce the terrorist threat. In such a way, by investigating the selected risks, it is possible to acquire an enhanced understanding of their impact and methods that can be used for effective management.
Thus, as stated previously, currently, Africa remains the area with a high risk of violent attacks. The advisories offer the upgraded terror alert for Nigeria, warning that there is a high risk of new attempts to spread havoc, including the attempts to use bombs placed in aircraft (Varley, 2022). Moreover, Nigeria has one of the highest terrorist threat levels in the world (“Terrorism in Nigeria,” n.d.). At the same time, The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (2018) reports that the state lacks security measures to regulate the problem effectively. Under these conditions, the likelihood of the terrorist attack and bomb threat is high and comprises four on the Risk Matrix:
Furthermore, the consequences of using bombs onboard the aircraft are fatal. They can be evaluated as 5, as statistically, the disasters involving the use of explosive materials result in the destruction of aircraft and the death of the majority of passengers and crew (ICAO, 2018). It means that the selected risk is critical and requires specific attention.
Ineffective security measures can be viewed as one of the major causes of problematic situations. The lack of control methods and scanners and the unacceptable level of preparedness among staff create the basis for human error (ICAO, 2018). The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) recognizes the problem and its scope and focuses on introducing measures to enhance airport security (Campbell, 2021). It also implies an increased presence of Nigerian military personnel to avoid new terrorist attacks and control the situation (Campbell, 2021). These measures are expected to solve the high threat level, improve the situation, and guarantee that passengers can feel safe during flights.
Inherent and Residual Risks
The choice of methods to address the problem requires the investigation of the inherent and residual risks. Thus, the first one is the level of risk existing before specific actions are introduced to address the likelihood of the accident (Thompson & Hopkin, 2021). As stated previously, the inherent risk in Nigeria is high, which is explained by the instability in the region and opposition between several groups. Combined with the severe consequences, the following inherent risks can be acquired:
- Likelihood = 4
- Consequences = 5
- Inherent risk= 20(RED)
The given number is exceptionally high, meaning there is a critical need for improvement as, at the moment, passengers cannot enjoy safe and secure flights.
At the same time, introducing specific safety measures might reduce the threat level. Residual risk can be determined as remaining after the efforts to eliminate all types of hazards and minimize their negative impact on the work of the organization or facility (Thompson & Hopkin, 2021). For Nigeria, higher protection levels can be achieved by using specific security approaches. Thus, Dubai’s example shows that innovative and proactive security systems might help to minimize the threat and effectively reduce the likelihood of terrorist attacks, implying the use of explosive materials (Qurwash, 2022). Using similar approaches in Nigeria, it is possible to reduce the likelihood to 3:
- Likelihood = 3
- Consequences = 5
- Inherent risk= 15(AMBER)
The risk remains high; however, it is significantly lower compared to the situation when the approach to security remains unchanged. For this reason, there is a critical need to use practical approaches to protect passengers.
Security Measures
An effective risk management model can be established by following recommendations offered by international agencies or using successful examples. For instance, ICAO (2018) and the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (n.d.) offer specific courses and methods to build an airport security environment and cultivate awareness among the staff. It implies using innovative security tools, such as scans and security areas, and training specialists to guarantee they know and can address the most relevant problems. Moreover, Nigeria can cooperate with the UAE, as one of the states operating in a potentially risky region, to acquire the necessary knowledge and reorganize the work of airports.
Conclusion
Altogether, the risk assessment procedure is vital for improving the work of airports. Applying the tool to the case mentioned above, it is possible to discover that Nigeria faces an extremely high inherent risk of terrorist attacks and violent acts using bombs. For this reason, there is a need to improve the existing approach to security and reconsider it to guarantee that positive results are attained. It is possible to predict the residual risk of 15, which issignificantly lower than the previous number. For this reason, additional security training and cultivating awareness among specialists are critical for Nigeria and its current civil aviation sphere.
References
Air transportation data. (2021). National Bureau of Statistics. Web.
Campbell, J. (2021). Nigeria beefs up airport security. Council on Foreign Relations. Web.
Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria. (n.d.). Security awareness training. Web.
The International Civil Aviation Organization. (2018). Second high-level conference on aviation security. Web.
Qurwash, A. (2022). Airports are building a more resilient security infrastructure. Times Aerospace. Web.
Terrorism in Nigeria. (n.d.). Statista. Web.
Thompson, C., & Hopkin, P. (2021). Fundamentals of risk management: Understanding, evaluating and implementing effective enterprise risk management (6th ed.). Kogan Page.
Varley, L. (2022). Upgraded terror alert for Nigeria sees advisories placed on air travel. Aviation Source News. Web.