Introduction
Risk management is one of the most important managerial tasks that every organization has to deal with in order to operate successfully. As Vinnem says, it is not possible to avoid risks, but an organization can have measures in place to help deal with them before they can have adverse effects (45). Sometimes risks may be ignored or a firm may fail to realize the potential risk factors until when it is too late. In such circumstances, it may not be easy to manage such risks in a proper manner, especially when handling costly and complex projects such as those undertaken by space agencies. In some cases the risks may have fatal consequences to those involved in the project or members of the public. It is for these reasons that organizations are now trying to come up with risk management models that they can use to prevent or manage risks to avoid their effects. The Bowtie method is one of the models of risk management that have gained massive popularity over the recent past. “Bowtie method is a risk evaluation method that can be used to analyze and demonstrate causal relationships in high risk scenarios,” (Munier 58). It is believed that the method was first developed by Chemistry Professor Hazan of University of Queensland, Australia in 1979. Since then, the model has become popular across the world when it comes to risk management. In this paper, the focus will be to determine how bowtie method of risk management can be applied in space projects at UK Space Agency.
UK Space Agency
UK Space Agency was established in April 2010 as a replacement of British National Space Center to take over the responsibilities of space exploration from the government (Munier 20). Headquartered in Swindon, this agency handles very expensive space exploration projects on behalf of the government of the United Kingdom. In its mission statement, it is clear that the firm’s primary objective is “to improve coordination of UK efforts in fields such as Earth science, telecoms and space exploration” (Rausand 26). With such a mandate, this organization is in charge of a wide range of tasks and it has a close working relationship with the European Space Agency. It handles numerous space projects, most of which are very risky and costly. This agency has an annual budget of over £322.6 million (Rausand 26). Katherine Courtney is the current chief executive officer at this firm.
Risk Management at UK Space Agency
UK Space Agency handles numerous complex projects, most of which may have serious consequences on the team members of the general public. Most of the space projects are very costly and require high level of technology-based skills to execute successfully. Although this organization has been successful, not all of its space projects have been a great success. Some of these projects have failed with varying degrees of impact on the firm. The management of this agency understands that these risks cannot be avoided, but with proper measures put in place, they can be easily managed.
In this paper, the researcher is interested in analyzing how this agency, in coordination with the European Space Agency, will be able to manage risks in the newly launched ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission. According to Rausand, “Sentinel-4 mission focuses on monitoring of trace gas concentrations and aerosols in the atmosphere to support operational services covering air-quality near-real time applications, air-quality protocol monitoring and climate protocol monitoring,” (19). This ambitious project has numerous risks that need to be managed to avoid their negative consequences. In this space project, numerous risk management methods can be applied. The paper will only focus on bowtie method as one of the most effective risk management tools.
Using Bowtie Method to Manage Risks at UK Space Agency
ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission is a very ambitious project that will not only benefit the United Kingdom and the European Union but also the entire continent. However, its success can only be guaranteed if the risks involved are properly managed to ensure that they are either prevented from taking place or their effects are made less destructive. The bowtie risk management method may be very instrumental in such processes. The figure below shows the bowtie risk management model.
When using this model, risk analysis starts by identifying the potential threats and the possibility of their occurrence. As shown in the above diagram, there can be numerous threats that this space project may face. According to Fraser and Simkins, the threats can be put into different classes (25). For instance, there may be threats associated with cost, inadequate expertise, terror attack, failure of the system, or natural calamities when undertaking the ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission. This model helps in identifying these risks long before they occur and then proposes ways in which they can be effectively managed. Once the potential risks have been detected, this model offers two ways of dealing with them based on the available resources, the nature of the risks, and the level of preparedness of the agency. The first approach, which is often the most preferred, is the prevention method. In this proactive method, the agency identifies the risks involved and comes up with control measures that will stop the threat before it can occur. The control measures are designed to ensure that the hazardous event does not occur. In most of the cases, the prevention method may be costly and may require high level of preparedness and adequate resources. However, its overall impacts significantly reduce the cost of the project because most of the risks are managed before they can take place.
The second approach is the recovery method that takes place after the hazardous event. In this reactive method, a firm will be trying to find ways of reducing the consequences of hazard that has already occurred. The firm appreciates that it lost control and was unable to prevent the risk from occurring and as such it will try to find ways of managing the consequences. Depending on the approach that is used to manage the consequences, the impacts of the event may vary. Fraser and Simkins say that it may not be possible to avoid negative impacts of a risk factor if a firm takes a reactive approach of handling issues after the loss of control (112). However, the level of adverse effect would vary depending on the nature of the reaction. Factors such as time that the team takes to react, the resources available for the reaction and the nature of hazard that has just occurred will determine the potential outcome. It is necessary to determine how each of the risks in ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission mentioned above can be managed.
Associated costs and other economic risks
ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission is one of the most ambitious projects that UK Space Agency, in collaboration with European Space Agency, has initiated in the recent past. The costs associated with this project have been clearly defined. However, the recent events in Europe may have direct impacts on the total cost of the project. For instance, the BREXIT referendum that saw United Kingdom citizens vote to exit the European Union is a serious risk that should not be ignored by the team leading this project. It should consider taking a proactive approach in handling the risks. One of the risks that should be anticipated is the inflation of the cost of the project. United Kingdom’s government was one of the leading financiers of the project. However, the country has already started experiencing inflation soon after the outcome of its referendum was announced. The inflation is likely to result into increased cost of undertaking the project.
The agency may be forced to change from using sterling pound to euro or American dollar to avoid the impact of the devaluation of the sterling pound. Although this may be seen as an unethical behavior, it may help this firm to avoid serious negative effects of the expected further devaluation of the sterling pound. If the team managing this space project fails to take this proactive method, then the hazardous event will occur and the amount of money it has, as budgeted before, will be inadequate for the project. The team will, therefore, be forced to embrace a reactive approach of having to search for additional funding from the donors. If the donors accept its request, then the project will be completed, but at a higher cost. If the donors reject the request, then the project will be paralyzed.
The BREXIT referendum is also likely to lead to less economic cooperation between the United Kingdom and its European Union counterparts. ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission, when it was initiated, was a partnership among all the European countries with the United Kingdom being the main player through its UK Space Agency. However, it is not yet clear how this partnership in the space exploration will work following the vote to exit the European Union. The team responsible for this project should be proactive enough to find ways of dealing with the risks that may come from a possible withdrawal of some of the partners in this project. Using the bowtie method, the team can move with speed and get every partner to commit to continue supporting this project even after the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union. In case this proactive strategy fails, then there will be no other option but to request the remaining members to increase their contributions in this project to cover for the part that was to come from the parties that have withdrawn from the project. The team should ensure that these events do not bring its operations to an immature halt. Such an undesirable eventuality is possible if the team fails to secure the resources early enough when the parties are still committed to the project.
Inadequate expertise
According to Ao and Gelman, space projects require high level of expertise to execute successfully (35). In most of the cases, major space projects such as the ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission require close coordination of experts from various countries to achieve the set objectives. The ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission is very complex and requires skilled astronauts, geologists, engineers, economists, and numerous other professionals. With the disintegration of the European Union, it becomes challenging for the team to have the skilled resources it needed from various European countries. The project manager will need to take a proactive approach in managing this risk by ensuring that it has a team of skilled experts from various countries and that the disintegration of the union does not affect its current and future needs of skilled labor. It may be necessary to sign a pact with the relevant governments and get their commitment that the needed specialists will be made available to them without any pre-conditions.
The aim will be to avoid cases where some countries withdraw their agents sent to participate in the project soon after United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union. The project manager may also consider working closely with the space agencies of other regions such as that of the United States and Russia. These two countries have proven to be successful in space exploration and may offer the expertise that this team may need at advanced stages of the exploration. Using these proactive approaches, as defined in the bowtie method, will prevent the risks from taking place. It will ensure that the project runs smoothly without getting interrupted in any way.
Terror attack
The world is increasingly becoming a global village with the emergence of modern means of transport and communication (Rausand 78). Although globalization has numerous benefits, it also comes with a number of challenges and terrorism is one of them. Terror groups such as ISIS, Al Qaeda, Al Shabbab, and many others are currently using different strategies to achieve their selfish interests. The recent attacks in Paris, France and Brussels, Belgium are a clear indication that Europe is currently one of the primary targets of these terror groups. The attacks used by these terror groups are becoming very sophisticated and it is not known what their capacity may be in the near future. Major scientific centers such as the space exploration agencies may be their next target.
Using the bowtie risk management model, the team undertaking the ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission is able to analyze the nature of this risk and the ways of overcoming it. A direct attack on the agency’s facilities is one of the possible ways that the terrorists can use when they decide to attack. Taking a proactive approach may involve installing state-of-the-art security technologies that will help in detecting any security threats in the facilities of this agency. It may even be necessary to conduct an investigation to determine that the current employees are not in any way working in the interest of the terror groups. The agency can seek for government support in protecting its facilities from possible terror attacks. The team will also need to have mechanisms that will eliminate chances of the terrorists accessing its data or manipulating it in any way for their own interests or the interests of their agents.
Failure of the system
In space exploration, system failure is a common problem that often occurs when it is least expected. Its occurrence does not mean that the team failed to take adequate measures to manage it. Sometimes such projects may involve a number of system failures before a successful launch can be made. According to Hopkin, system failure is one of the most common risks in space projects (38). In most of the cases, reactive approach to these system failures is what defines the success of the entire project. When there is a failure in the system, it offers the team an opportunity to learn something new. From the failure, the team learns how to make adjustments to achieve success in future attempts. It does not mean the team may not need to mitigate the risks before they occur. The team will need to develop mechanisms that will reduce the impacts of any system failure in terms of costs, damages, and injuries. This can be done by tests before the actual launch of the space projects. Such tests will be conducted to identify the weaknesses in the system and to address these weaknesses before the actual launch. The team is also expected to prevent foreseeable risks in a proactive manner.
Natural calamities
Natural calamities may also pose risks to the space project on varying degrees depending on the nature of the risk and its magnitude. According to Popov, Lyon, and Hollcroft, natural calamities in Europe are becoming more frequent and they are causing more damages than ever before based on the existing records (46). This is partly due to the climate change and related factors such as global warming. Earthquakes, tsunamis, storms, and floods are some of the calamities that may affect ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission. It is not possible to stop any of these natural calamities from taking place. However, it is possible to come up with measures that may help in mitigating these risks in cases where these natural calamities occur. Based on the bowtie method, it is appropriate to take a proactive approach when dealing with these natural calamities. The possible consequences of each of these natural calamities are known. As such, it is necessary to be proactive and develop preventive measures. The team manager in this project may need to develop small teams that will be responsible for each of the possible risk factors. The risk management team may coordinate very closely when developing mitigation measures and sometimes they may even share resources. The management of the agency will be required to provide the resources needed to manage these natural calamities. The primary aim will be to eliminate the devastating consequences of these natural calamities whenever they occur.
Conclusion
Risks are forces that an organization cannot completely eliminate in its normal operations. However, it is possible to reduce their consequences by having effective risk management strategies. At UK Space Agency, there are numerous space projects that are being undertaken for various purposes. One of the main space projects currently in progress is ESA’s Sentinel 4 mission which is being undertaken in collaboration with European Space Agency. This ambitious project is faced with numerous risks which may have serious negative consequences if they are not properly mitigated. Bowtie method of risk management offers the best way of dealing with these risks in a proactive manner to ensure that the space project is a success.
Works Cited
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