Hurricanes pose a severe threat to human property and life, so working to minimize damage from them is crucial and relevant. An essential part of hurricane mitigation is predicting hurricanes’ occurrence, movement, and strength. All of this will help to make quality preparations in areas that will be affected by a natural phenomenon and will minimize the number of victims and damage to property.
At this point, we know it is a tropical-type hurricane with a maximum speed of 110 miles per hour, making it a Category 3 hurricane. Also, we know that the hurricane has a chance of moving further North toward the Carolinas or west toward Texas. So, the hurricane is expected to make landfall around the Florida area. Finally, an important fact is that previous hurricanes of this type have changed their direction in different ways, which makes it impossible to accurately determine the future motion of the hurricane based on previous experience.
The primary hypothesis seems to be the idea that the motion of the hurricane is more likely to change toward the North since the clockwise air movement in the Northern Hemisphere often causes hurricanes to change direction toward the North. This hypothesis is based on the practical experience that most previous hurricanes have reversed their direction to the North. Also, because the wind movement is directed from places with higher atmospheric pressure towards places with low atmospheric pressure, a hurricane now between zero and thirtieth latitude will change its direction towards an area with lower atmospheric pressure, which is between latitudes 30 and 60.
To test this hypothesis, it is worth referring to the history of American hurricanes, most of which did change their direction to the North. Also, as a practical way to test the hypothesis, it is possible to propose a way of modeling the hurricane, which could take into account all the current weather patterns, pressure parameters, and wind direction and create a more accurate model of the behavior of the current hurricane.
If the hurricane continues its trajectory, it will continue moving toward the west due to the low-pressure zone. However, if the hurricane encounters a jet stream in the mid-latitudes, it will accelerate strongly northward, rushing already toward the northern low-pressure zone. Thus, the movement of a hurricane is directly dependent on the direction of the prevailing winds in a given area, which in turn are directed from high-pressure areas to low-pressure areas. Also, the Coriolis force strongly influences hurricanes reaching North America, which, together with the high-level steering winds, change the hurricane’s direction (Snaiki 3). If the force of these winds is not strong enough, the hurricane will continue to follow the direction of the west.
Several factors may be more important than the direction of wind currents in a given area, which has caused some hurricanes in the past to change their direction to the west. Also, the high hurricane speeds that are known now may have the effect of making the hurricane speeds too strong to change direction to the North.
Thus, based on past empirical experience related to the predominant direction of winds in the Northern Hemisphere, it can be noted that the hurricane will change its direction toward the North. Still, the high current hurricane speed, as well as several examples from history, may refute this assumption. It is necessary to simulate this situation with the help of special programs to get more accurate data.
Work Cited
Gao, Yuan, et al. “A new hurricane wind direction retrieval method for SAR images without hurricane eye.” Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 35.11 (2018): 2229-2239.