Introduction
The political situation in the Arabic world is known to be unstable, with a lot of undercurrents and twists – Iran, for example, has had ongoing conflicts with neighboring countries for decades now. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it seems to have been trying to get other Arabic countries under its control (Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council). These conflicts became the catalyst for the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981, a union that includes Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE.
Iran has been involved in destabilizing the political, military, and economic situation in the region in the past years – and its relationship with Saudi Arabia has been especially low (Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council). This is why the events of January 2020 appear to be good news for Saudi Arabia, UAE, and their allies.
Main body
Qasem Soleimani, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) Commander and an impactful political figure from Iran, was killed in Baghdad on the 3rd of January, 2020. The attack was performed by the U. S. military, according to the statement of the U. S. Department of Defense (U.S. Killing of Qasem Soleimani 4). In response, Iranian leaders promised to strike back and avenge Soleimani’s death. On the 8th of January, 2020, Iran sent several missiles targeting Iraqi military bases with the U. S. army located in them (U.S. Killing of Qasem Soleimani 6). Most analysts conclude it was done to demonstrate the country’s force and its will to fight back (U.S. Killing of Qasem Soleimani 6).
Qasem Soleimani was allegedly killed because he was planning an attack on the United States – that is the official reason. The States have been portraying Soleimani as a terrorist and a threat to the Arabic world. There were suggestions of the attack being a response to the pro-Iranian protest and further blockade of the American embassy in Baghdad (U.S. Killing of Qasem Soleimani 6). Besides, it was an escalation of the low-level conflict between the two countries that had been going on for a while (Jonathan). One of the underlying reasons for it was the tension over the oil fields involving Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the U. S. as the ally of the latter. There had been several attacks from the Iranian side over the previous few months, so the U. S. naturally had to give some sort of response (Ward).
Qasem Soleimani’s assassination was celebrated in the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia. It was, undoubtedly, a power move to show America’s allegiance to them – Trump has finally backed up his anti-Iranian rhetoric with actions. Right after the attack, the oil prices increased by a few percent, hitting $70.73 per barrel, although soon afterward, the tension eased, and the price went back to lower (Obeid). It was unclear how the situation would unfold, but the predictions were that a war escalation would majorly affect oil prices, making them almost double. The biggest winner in the situation turned out to be Saudi Arabia – a shift in Iranian export, all to their advantage, has had a positive influence on the country’s economy (Obeid).
Conclusion
The predictions of World War III that were going around soon after Soleimani’s death have not been confirmed. It seems like Riyadh’s goal is to pull Baghdad away from Tehran, but after the attack, they have got lower chances to succeed (Farouk). Soleimani’s assassination encouraged anti-American and pro-Iranian movements, so at the moment, prospects of the situation are unclear (Farouk). From the military perspective, Iran is unlikely to make any provocative moves – it will probably keep the attacks low-level and not risky (Ward). Besides, at the moment, the economic situation in Iran is not the greatest – and it seems to be a massive win for Saudi Arabia.
Works Cited
Farouk, Yasmine. “What Does the U.S. Killing of Soleimani Mean for Saudi Arabia?” Carnegie. 2020. Web.
“Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).” United Against Nuclear Iran. Web.
Marcus, Jonathan. “Qasem Soleimani: Why kill him now and what happens next?” BBC News. 2020. Web.
Obeid, Hassan. “The consequences of Qasem Suleimani’s death on the global energy market.” The Conversation. 2020. Web.
“U.S. Killing of Qasem Soleimani: Frequently Asked Questions.” Congressional Research Service, 2019, pp. 1-29.
Ward, Alex. “The case for killing Qassem Soleimani.” Vox. 2020. Web.