The Pitfalls of Bayes’ Theorem: Avoiding Misuse and Bias Essay

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Bayes’ theorem is a powerful tool for calculating the likelihood of an event based on prior knowledge and available evidence. However, like any mathematical tool, it can be misused if misapplied in certain situations. One common way Bayes’ theorem can be misused is to support a preconceived notion or bias (van de Schoot, 2021). For example, suppose a person believes that a specific medical treatment is highly effective, but their belief is based on something other than solid evidence. They might use Bayes’ theorem to calculate the likelihood that the medicine is effective, but their calculation could be biased by their prior belief in the treatment’s effectiveness. This would be a misuse of Bayes’ theorem because the theorem is only valid when the preceding view is based on evidence, not personal bias or subjective opinions.

Bayes’ Theorem can also be misused when prior probabilities are not taken into account or are incorrectly assumed. For example, if a person was trying to determine the probability that a patient has a certain disease, they may assume that the probability of the patient having the disease and the probability of the patient not having the disease are both equal and sum to 1 (50/50). However, this assumption is incorrect and could lead to inaccurate results if the prior probability of the patient having the disease is not taken into account.

Sports organizations and scientists in the United States were slow to accept European research on the correlation between overdrinking water and low sodium in the bloodstream. One reason is that the research was conducted abroad, and the American scientific community was hesitant to accept findings from foreign studies (Rahman, 2022). Additionally, the research was relatively new and had not been widely accepted or tested in the United States. Furthermore, the research was conducted on athletes, a population not representative of the general population, and the results may not apply to the general public. Finally, the research was conducted in a laboratory setting, and the results may not apply to real-world scenarios. All of these factors likely contributed to the slow acceptance of the research in the United States.

References

Rahman, M. R., Piper, T., Geyer, H., Equey, T., Baume, N., Aikin, R., & Maass, W. (2022). Data Analytics for Uncovering Fraudulent Behaviour in Elite Sports. Data Analytics for Business and Societal Challenges. Web.

van de Schoot, R., Depaoli, S., King, R., Kramer, B., Märtens, K., Tadesse, M. G., Vannucci, M., Gelman, A., Veen, D., Willemsen, J. & Yau, C. (2021). . Nature Reviews Methods Primers, 1(1), 1-26. Web.

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IvyPanda. (2023, December 28). The Pitfalls of Bayes' Theorem: Avoiding Misuse and Bias. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-pitfalls-of-bayes-theorem-avoiding-misuse-and-bias/

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"The Pitfalls of Bayes' Theorem: Avoiding Misuse and Bias." IvyPanda, 28 Dec. 2023, ivypanda.com/essays/the-pitfalls-of-bayes-theorem-avoiding-misuse-and-bias/.

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IvyPanda. (2023) 'The Pitfalls of Bayes' Theorem: Avoiding Misuse and Bias'. 28 December.

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IvyPanda. 2023. "The Pitfalls of Bayes' Theorem: Avoiding Misuse and Bias." December 28, 2023. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-pitfalls-of-bayes-theorem-avoiding-misuse-and-bias/.

1. IvyPanda. "The Pitfalls of Bayes' Theorem: Avoiding Misuse and Bias." December 28, 2023. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-pitfalls-of-bayes-theorem-avoiding-misuse-and-bias/.


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IvyPanda. "The Pitfalls of Bayes' Theorem: Avoiding Misuse and Bias." December 28, 2023. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-pitfalls-of-bayes-theorem-avoiding-misuse-and-bias/.

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