The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy was first published in 1987. Kennedy explores economics as well as politics of the great powers in the period 1500-1980. The thorough analysis of the reasons of their decline is provided. In addition, Kennedy includes forecasts on the positions of China, the Soviet Union, the European Economic Community, Japan, and the United States. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is an excellent source of economic and historical information on all powerful countries.
Kennedy divides the book into five sections: strategy and economics in pre-industrial world, strategy and economics in the industrial era, powers in 1885-1918, powers in 1919-1942, and strategy and economics today and tomorrow. The book starts with the overview of the rise of the Western World with the special emphasis on the Habsburg Bid for Mastery and importance of finance, geography, and winning of wars. Further, Kennedy discusses the industrialization and the way it shifted the global balances. The detailed analysis of Bipolar World and the Crisis of the Middle Powers is included. The final section discusses the stability and change in bipolar world and the reasonable prediction for the situation in the 21st century.
The key point made by Kennedy is that the strength of the powerful countries can be measured only in comparison to other powers. He adds that the success of the great powers depends on the availability of resources, economic stability, as well as military might. The specific discussion on Ming and the Muslim World is a contribution to the analysis of western powers, their rise and decline. All points and arguments made by Kennedy are supported with references to numerous historical documents and primary information. The chronological organization of the book enhances understanding of the key events and correlations.
Kennedy effectively uses a number of measures to assess the real and the potential strengths of nations discussed in the book. The metric of power is analyzed on the point in time. Kennedy emphasizes the importance of the manpower revolution and analyzes its role in changing the way Europeans fought wars. Chapter 2, in particular, covers the argument that the Habsburgs failed to achieve the same results as other powers. Thus, success and failure are measured by insignificant differences. The key to success, in the words of Kennedy, is ability to maintain balance between the military power and the material base.
The overview of political and economic developments in Prussia, Britain, Russia, and France (countries that could finance their own wars) is compared to the countries that sought financial assistance to maintain military force. All of the arguments are summarized in tables and supported with figures. In particular, Kennedy provides specific information on the wartime expenditures and revenues. In the case of Britain, its financial strength played the crucial role in victory over France. Kennedy analyzes the fusion of financial strength with the industrial developments and concludes Chapter 2 with the assumption that industrialization fostered the economic and political strengthening.
The core assessment of statistics depends upon Barioch’s calculations of industrialization. The share of world manufacturing output is used to mark the peaks of power for major countries; however, there is no justification for the use of such a measure. The book contains 12 maps and 49 tables; each is thoroughly explained and analyzed. Kennedy includes only reliable information. Personal observations and comments are supported with statistics from scholarly publications and historical documents. For example, there is information on population size, urbanization rates, levels of industrialization, production industry, energy consumption, and total industrial output of the powers.
Notably, Kennedy predicts the decline of the Soviet Union, the rise of China and Japan, the increasing strength of EEC, and the relative decline of the U.S. political and economic power. All of these predictions have already fulfilled. It gives confidence to claim that the analysis conducted by Kennedy is scientifically and practically viable. In addition, Kennedy assumes that the deficit spending on military build-up is the only factor behind decline of any powerful country or union. This assumption is also justified.
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers focuses on correlation between economic wealth and military force. The book does not cover the normative aspects of power. Thus, 500 years of international relations are discussed without any consideration of the normative aspect of power. This is the main shortcoming of Kennedy’s analysis. He portrays the Soviet Union and the United States as historical great powers. However, the portrayal is incomplete enough to be partially misleading. In addition, Kennedy does not stress that these two superpowers were incompatible actors in different respects. The fact that the Soviet Union was the inferior actor in the Cold War is totally ignored.
In overall, the book is written for the audience of general readers who are interested in the historical development of the great powers. However, the scholars as well as historians and international relations specialists will find this book interesting and informative. Conducted analysis is presented in depth and with clarity. The two broad arguments are made: (1) the dynamic for change is driven by technological and economic advancements, (2) the position of individual countries and uneven economic growth influence the strategic position of the whole systems in the long-term. These arguments are sufficiently explained and justified throughout the book. In addition, Kennedy discusses the limits of presented data and theories.
Paul Kennedy writes as a historian, economist, and analyst. He gathered wealth of information from global economic and military history. He projected historical data on economic analysis and assessment of military success. He provided an analytical forecast on the possible rise and fall of the current great powers. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is the result of enormous work and far-ranging research. The assumptions are turned into evidence, while evidence is turned into strong arguments. Kennedy ties different aspects (economic, military, and societal) together to interpret the reasons behind the rise and fall of the global superpowers.
In conclusion, the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy is not a narrative story about the mythical empires. It is an empirical record of the global history of international relations. The book uncovers hidden aspects of power resting on economic and military might. Kennedy investigates the true reasons of rise and fall of exceptionally powerful countries and unions. Even though the book was written 20 years ago, analytical analysis conducted and presented by Kennedy is still viable today. An average reader as well as a professional economist will find this book informative. The wide range of topics and the focused scope of research turn this book into the unique piece of professional literature.