Introduction
The influence of Mugabe’s scare tactics which he was conducting against the Zimbabweans is soon fading and in the absence of the customary intimidation of the people by war veterans and youth militia who have been brainwashed by the government, the climate of terror which has made president Mugabe to remain in power and control of Zimbabwe for so long seems to fade away with every passing day. For the first time in twenty-eight years of vile and reckless rule of Zimbabwe by Robert Mugabe, it looks as if he may lose in the run-off elections after all, this however is only speculation. Mr. Mugabe has rigged many of the elections and has ruined the country to a pathetic state in all ways including economically and politically. Mugabe has ruthless, delusional fanaticism of a man who is very much afraid of being ruled by others and afraid of being tried for the many abuses he has conducted against human rights.
Main body
According to (CIA), the inflation rate in Zimbabwe has been running for more 100,000% each year for some time now. The black market exchange rate is now almost ten times compared to the official one as most of its economy has become informal as most of the people are in the informal business sector. Zimbabwe’s economy is already becoming dollarized and any reformation which can be done would start with fiscal stabilization, let the new currency to float down to unofficial rate and change it to a more solid currency and halt the furious printing of money which has been going on, (The Economist 2008).
Even if Mr. Mugabe stepped down and leave the seat to one of his fellow vicious and corrupt villains, the western countries would waste their time to go and extend their kindness because the money would not go to the wretched Zimbabweans but it would be used up by the fat cats who have plundered the country to its current dispensable state.
There was a long delay in the announcement of the elections because as the election official said, four elections; local council, house of assembly, the senate and for presidency were held on the same day. The results showed that the president with the Zanu-PF party had lost its majority for the first time since independence with 97 seats against the 99 seats of MDC party of Morgan Tsvangirai in the total of 210 seats of the chamber.(BBC news 2008).
However even though the presidents party is losing its hold on power, the president is still a very powerful institution in Zimbabwe such that he can veto any legislation which may be passed by parliament and in some instances he can go to an extent of ruling by decree. This therefore means that even if MDC is the parliament victor, the president would be weakened but remain a powerful figure in the country.
Tsvangirai who was a former trade union leader claimed that he had won an outright majority and did not see the need for a re-run as he said that the delay in the announcement of the poll results was so as to finagle the outcome by the government. The opposition leader then flown from the country to seek support from other regional leaders before returning to the country.
Key stakeholders
There are various key stakeholders of the Zimbabwe elections, this ranges from the voters, candidates, nongovernmental organizations, government bodies to the international organizations which are concern with elections. The voters in the elections included the citizens of Zimbabwe, they were involved in the voting process and although there were those who were intimidated by the government and its officials, they were able to vote for their candidates with ease although it now seems that they will not have much freedom during the run-off set for June. There were various candidates who were vying for the various seats in the country, this included the presidential seat, house of assembly, local council and the senate. The presidential candidate included the president Robert Mugabe who was running on the ZANU-PF ticket and has been ruling the country for almost three decades. Morgan Tsvangirai who was running on the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) ticket is the major opposition leader in the country and was a former trade unionist. Morgan Tsvangirai was beaten up and his skull broken by the police in the past year as he carried out one of his rallies in the country as one of the ways to intimidate him and make him to give up his position. The final opposition candidate was Simba Makoni who had been an insider in the Mugabe’s government as he was one of his ministers and many would love to see him rule the country (EISA 2008). All these are stakeholders on the basis of authority. Other stakeholders who are affiliated on the basis of expertise are such as Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) which is meant to organize the election and ensure that there is peace and the elections runs smoothly. EISA delegation which is a regional election observer and was used to harmonize the elections in Zimbabwe. It was composed of 25 members who were taken from the civil society organizations, electro commissions and the academic institutions which are in the SADC countries such as Lesotho, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Sounth Africa, Zambia and Tanzania.
The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) observed the pre-election period of the elections which were scheduled for March. ZESN deployed and trained 120 observers on long term basis and the people were deployed were meant to monitor all the elections related events in all the existing parliamentary constituencies which are 120 in number. The NGOs who were stakeholders in the Zimbabwe elections were such as the Civil society organizations which were trying to improve the elections participation. Organizations such as the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace (CCJP) and the Civic Education Network Trust (CIVNET) were very active. The CCJC was carrying out a peace building mission while CIVNET was talking about the important for participation in the elections (ZESN 2007).
Future for Zimbabwe
The runoff election between the president Robert Mugabe who has now run the country for almost three decades and Morgan Tsvangirai the opposition leader has been set to be on June 27 of this year as announced by the Zimbabwe election commission (Bearak, Dugger, 2008).
There are many things which seems to favor Tsvangirai in the rerun; one is that he had most votes in the March 29th elections and Mugabe critics who previously saw him invulnerable to defeat now feel that he is ready to fall. However, those who were in support for the opposition leader Tsvangirai and voted for him in the previous elections are afraid to do it again during the re-run. Due to this, it is almost clear that the rerun will probably not be free and fair as the MDC structures have been systematically targeted especially the rural areas which have switched away from the president to the opposition. On the other side, the government has denied all this saying that opposition was to blame for the killings and fights which were taking place, (Gelder, 2008).
The future of Zimbabwe now looks glim, there is a probability that Tsvangirai starts favorite since he gained most of the votes in the elections but the president who has been in power since 1980 cannot imagine Zimbabwe having another leader. Mugabe has now lost his invincibility and this has led to more people voting against him and it is still not clear who the people who voted for the independent candidate Simba Makoni will vote for in the run-off. However, there is a possibility that they will vote for the opposition since it is obvious that they voted for him so as to have a change of power. Those who voted for him in the presidential contest were a breakaway MDC faction which has since then reunited with Mr. Tsvangirai therefore they are likely to vote for Tsvangirai. The only thing that may affect their voting however is the violence by the government and it may affect the outcome of the run-off results.
Conclusion
In conclusion, there is a likelihood that the western countries will not much since they do not have a direct influence on President Mugabe who on the other side says that he is a victim of a plot by the west led by the Zimbabwe former colonial power Britain. Although South Africa is the chief mediator, the MDC says that the president is lenient on Mr. Mugabe and they therefore want it removed or replaced by another country. However, there is a lot of criticism of Mugabe from south Africa which includes the ANC president Jacob Zuma and South Africa mediation was behind publication of the results of the presidency in the individual polling stations and therefore made it impossible for the polls to be rigged.
References
BBC news, (2008), Zimbabwe election recount delayed.
BBC news, (2008), Zimbabwe elections, Web.
Bearak, B. & Dugger, C.W. (2008), Zimbabwe Election Runoff Set for June 27, New York Times.
CIA – The World Factbook – Burma, CIA, 2008.
EISA, 2008, interim statement, Web.
Gelder, E. (2008), Zimbabwe, inter press service, Johannesburg.
The Economist, (2008), Time for the rescue.
Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), 2007, pre-election update No.1.