Introduction
The hazard of airline hijackings is one of the most discussed questions today. The necessity to pay much attention to this issue is influenced by the effects of the situation of September 11, 2001. The attempts of terrorist and non-terrorist hijackings are analyzed by the researchers properly in order to reduce risks of the next attempts and provide the effective measures for their predicting. Laura Dugan, Gary LaFree, and Alex Piquero presented the results of the research on examining the trends of airline hijackings with references to a rational choice model in their article “Testing a Rational Choice Model of Airline Hijackings”.
The main purpose of the research is to analyze the tendencies in the aerial hijackings of different levels of success and of different motivation (terrorist or non-terrorist) which were conducted during the period between 1931 and 2003 in order to determine the factors which can increase or decrease the number of attempts to realize aerial hijackings.
Main body
Dugan, LaFree, and Piquero examined the data presented by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the RAND Corporation, and they also used the latest materials from the developed database on the global terrorism (Dugan, LaFree, and Piquero). Thus, 1,101 aerial hijackings which were attempted during the period between 1931 and 2003 were analyzed according to such criteria as the successfulness of the attempt, orientation to the benefits, cost component, and the risk of the severe punishment (Dugan, LaFree, and Piquero).
To complete the purpose of the investigation, the researchers worked out the complex study with indicating several hypotheses for their further discussing and possible supporting. The main hypotheses were connected with the impact of the successfulness of the previous hijackings on the following ones and with the impact of the risk of punishment. Thus, the researchers examined the possibility of a new hijacking attempt’s decreasing with references to the increase of the apprehension measures and the possibility of a new hijacking attempt’s decreasing with references to making the punishments for hijackings severer (Dugan, LaFree, and Piquero).
The researchers determined such independent variables as the success and the purpose of hijackings which influenced the frequency of the following attacks. Moreover, while measuring the variables, the researchers concentrated on those ones which can increase or decrease the frequency with the help of the logistic regression analysis.
To support their hypotheses, Dugan, LaFree, and Piquero concentrated on using the continuous-time survival analysis which was implemented in the context of a rational choice theory with the help of which the researchers explained the impacts of such factors as the crime policy, severe punishment, the usage of the metal detectors, the success of the previous hijackings on the number of the further attacks (Dugan, LaFree, and Piquero). The complex analysis of the qualitative and quantitative data contributed to creating the complete picture of the current tendencies in the field of terrorist and non-terrorist airline hijackings.
Conclusion
According to Dugan, LaFree, and Piquero’s findings, the attempts of airline hijackings decrease as a result of using such apprehension measures as metal detectors, of increasing the severity of punishment in relation to the crime policy (only for non-terrorist hijackings). However, the attempts become frequent after some successful hijackings. The main limits of the research depend on the usage of FAA data and on the definite limits of the FAA definition which is used for determining the hijacking success (Dugan, LaFree, and Piquero).
Works Cited
Dugan, Laura, Gary LaFree, and Alex R. Piquero. “Testing a Rational Choice Model of Airline Hijackings”. Criminology 43.4 (2005): 1031-1065. Print.