Introduction
With less than two years left for the next Canada Federal Elections to be held, the political landscape is slowly shaping up and major political parties are involved in all manner of preparation (Cournoyer, 2013). According to Puzic (2013), three candidates will be contesting in the 2015 elections. Stephen Harper is expected to fly the Conservative Party’s flag while Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair will be vying on the Liberal Party and New Democrats Party tickets respectively.
Arguably, the popularity of the Liberal Party has been affected by the election of Justin Trudeau as its leader (Grenier, 2013). This notwithstanding, some people are of the opinion that Trudeau will emerge victorious because of his unique ideas and style of leadership. Backed by a strong political marketing team, it is alleged that the Liberal Party will triumph over the Conservatives and the New Democrats.
This paper provides an analysis of who will win the upcoming Canada Federal Elections and focuses more on the marketing campaigns being used by the political parties.
Political Marketing Strategies
Political marketing may be defined as the application of marketing concepts to political campaigns so as to package political activities and messages in a way that appeals to voters. Discussing political marketing in Canada, Borins (2013) contends that the use of effective political marketing strategies during political campaigns plays a critical role in determining the outcome of elections. It is thus advisable for political parties to study the political environment in order to come up the best political marketing strategies for specific campaigns.
As explained by Marland (2005), political marketing also refers to the use of opinion research to plan and execute a well-organized political campaign. Based on the information provided by pollsters, political parties may decide to either use advertising or direct marketing to attract voters. However, it is prudent to rely on a strategic marketing approach.
While Stephen Harper will focus on ensuring that the government can effectively deal with the opposition, it is obvious that both Mulcair and Trudeau will make every effort to demonstrate to voters that their parties and ideologies are different from those of the Conservative Party (Grenier, 2013). Being the incumbent, the Conservative Party is likely to do everything possible to persuade voters to remain loyal. There is, however, a price to pay for being the incumbent party. Arguably, both the Liberal Party and the New Democrats Party may use attack advertisements to paint a negative picture of the Conservative Party in order to lower its popularity before the next elections.
As has been pointed out, the Conservative Party will certainly be relying on the fact that it is the incumbent party to deal with opponents. Ostensibly, the party has a good economic track record and analysts believe that this may give it a competitive advantage over the other parties (Puzic, 2013). Conservatives are regarded as the best economic policy makers and consequently, voters are convinced that the Conservative Party is the right party to drive Canada’s economic agenda. While this is true, the New Democrats Party and the Liberal Party are seen to be closer to voters than the Conservative Party.
Led by Stephen Harper, the Conservative Party is very keen on using its Constituency Management Information System to obtain important details about voters. There is a possibility that the party may also use attack advertisements to discredit its opponents and lure specific groups of voters. The party also has policies that are designed to enable it reach voters who for a very long time have been marginalized (Borins, 2013). Apparently, the New Democrats Party benefited by adopting a similar approach in an earlier campaign. There is a high probability that this political marketing strategy will be used by all the parties during campaigns to prepare for the 2015 elections. Through their strategies, the political marketing team behind Harper’s campaigns is determined to portray him as a charismatic leader who cares so much about his constituents while downplaying his shortcomings.
To popularize his party among voters, the leader of the New Democrats Party intends to focus on issues that mostly affect consumers. The party is also seeking to ensure that service providers charge a moderate fee for important services (Ibbitson, 2014). The New Democrats political marketing team also intends to use attack advertisements to depict Harper as an exhausted leader with nothing new to offer the people of Canada. At the same time, Mulcair’s political marketing team is determined to portray Trudeau as an inexperienced leader with very few convictions and policies lead Canada.
Among other approaches, the political marketing team for Justin Trudeau might turn to the use of online interviews to reach voters. His Liberal Party will also use attack advertisements during its campaigns to depict itself as a stronger party in comparison to other parties. Trudeau’s political marketing team may also utilize strategies used by the rest to counter their moves.
Influence of Brands on Voter Behavior
According to Barrett (2014), Justin Trudeau’s proposal to remove Senators from the House of Commons is bound to have a huge impact on the behavior of voters. Apparently, there is need to enlighten Canadians on the importance of eliminating the Senate. By choosing this as his campaign brand, it is alleged that the Liberal Party, led by Trudeau, will impact scores of voters across Canada. Since there are many people who are convinced that the Senate has performed dismally during the Conservative Party’s era, Trudeau decided to take a tough stand on the matter in order to strengthen his campaigns (Barrett, 2014).
Various pollsters are in agreement that the idea of removing Senators is a major boost for Trudeau’s campaigns. Some analysts are convinced that his chosen brand may cause voters to think that he has something totally different to offer unlike his competitors. Pollsters also claim that his brand may pose a serious problem for his competitors. The unity in the Liberal Party may also give it an advantage over its competitors. According to Puzic (2013), the Liberal Party lost to the Conservative Party in the last elections as a result of the division that existed within the party.
The New Democrats Party leader appears to be ahead of his competitors for his convincing performance during Question Period to discuss the Senate scandal (Barrett, 2014). When depicted against Trudeau and Harper, Mulcair stands out in this regard. Nevertheless, it is obvious that the leader of the New Democrats Party still faces stiff competition from both Trudeau and Harper. Mulcair’s strength during Question Period may also not be a very good reason to entice voters after all. Unlike voters in the past generations, the current generation of voters is keen to elect a leader with unique qualities and one who appears to have completely new ideas from what the political climate has presented to voters over the years.
As noted earlier, Stephen Harper’s brand mostly focuses on the marginalized individuals throughout Canada. Apparently, Harper is a strong leader and promises low taxation and improved economic growth for the people of Canada. The Conservative Party has also received praises from most Canadians for its well crafted economic policies that are specifically meant to put Canada on the right path to economic growth. Unfortunately, the Conservative Party must address the many concerns raised regarding the Senate scandal that is now worrying most voters. Realizing that the Senate issue was very a heavy matter and an important consideration for the voters, Justin Trudeau chose to use it as a basis for his campaign brand.
Harper also promises to address the problem of income inequality among the Canadian people. Arguably, this is meant to reduce the burden of tax on families with children under the age of 18 years. While the tax strategy worked for the party during the last election period in Canada, critics have argued that the promise of tax reduction may not be consequential for the 2015 elections (Wyatt, 2014). It is thus advisable for Harper’s political marketing team to come up with other winning strategies.
Positioning of the Parties and their Political Leaders
Based on their brands and political marketing strategies, the parties and their leaders are viewed differently by voters. The Liberal Party is generally regarded by voters as an innovative party that promises a new way of doing things. The brand used Justin Trudeau is an indication that the party is ready to try new ideas in order to change the status quo. The proposal by the party leader to get rid of the Senate is especially a welcome move and one that is considered quite unique by voters.
Although Mulcair has been singled out as an active participant during Question Period, he is yet to gain popularity among the Canadian voters. Despite his efforts to compel the Conservative Party to take responsibility about the Senate scandal, his party still has a long way to go in order to prove to Canadian voters that it can deliver. Mulcair and his political marketing team are largely regarded as non reformers. Consequently, the New Democrats Party has so much to do to ensure that the party can successfully compete.
Harper’s party has the advantage of being the incumbent party. However, being the incumbent party presents a number of challenges to its campaign efforts. First, there are those promises made by the government during the previous election campaign period that must be fulfilled. Failure to do so may give voters a reason to doubt the party’s credibility and ability to deliver on its promises. Secondly, the party is faced with a scandal involving the Senate and this has put it at a position where the leader and his political marketing team have to do whatever it takes to rebuild the party’s reputation.
To critics as well as to some voters, Stephen Harper does not seem to have any new ideas that can possibly benefit the people of Canada. Some voters are, however, convinced that the Conservative Party is the best party to drive the economy of Canada. While the Conservative Party has managed to formulate good economic policies that are requisite to the growth of Canada’s economy, it has scored very poorly in other areas such as the environment. The various challenges the party is faced with also give opponents a chance to criticize its leadership. Accordingly, it is essential for the Stephen Harper and his political marketing team to return to the drawing board and work out a strategy that will help it to reconstruct its public image. Lack of unity made the Liberal Party lose during the last elections and the same might happen to the Conservative Party in 2015 unless something radical is done to redeem the party’s reputation and to deal with internal conflict.
Voting Segments
The main focus for the Liberal Party is Quebec. Unlike the other parties, the Liberal Party appears to have a strong following in Quebec. However, there is stiff competition from the other parties. Every leader is working hard to ensure that his party is not left out and all parties are interested in pursuing voters at whatever cost. Ottawa is one of the geographical areas targeted by the Conservative Party. Unlike the other parties, the main focus of the Conservative Party is to reach the marginalized groups in Canada. Among other changes, the party proposes a lower rate of taxation and income equality throughout Canada. Whether this will materialize is, however, yet to be seen. Although Ottawa is the stronghold for the Conservative Party, the other parties also have an interest. Similar to the Liberal Party, the New Democrats Party will be looking at Quebec besides other places (Graefe & Kiss, 2013).
Trends in Political Polling
The competition is stiff and all parties are gearing up for success in the upcoming 2015 Canadian elections. An observation of the trends in political polling however indicates that there will be an overwhelming victory for the Liberal Party under the leadership of Justin Trudeau. Ostensibly, this is linked to the fact that the party is seen to have fresh ideas which most voters are looking for.
Political polling trends also indicate that Trudeau is in a better position to win the upcoming Canada elections. In spite of the fact that it has few members of parliament unlike its two competitors, analysts argue that the Liberal Party can rise above its challenges and emerge the winner in 2015. Looking at trends in political polling, the New Democrats Party has a lot of work to do to gain political mileage before the next elections. Despite being outspoken on a number of areas, it has integrity issues that must be addressed.
The Use of Social Media
Social media networks present political parties with a wonderful campaign tool (Marland, Giasson & Lees-Marshment, 2011). The success of social media networks in political campaigns, however, depends so much on how effectively they are used. In the United States, for example, President Barrack Obama’s campaign team used social media networks quite well to popularize the party and to reach targeted audiences. In the present world, almost all leaders have realized the benefits associated with the use of social media networks during political campaigns. Leaders are thus turning to the use of social media networks to strengthen their political campaigns.
Looking at the political scenario in Canada, the candidate who is most likely to use social media networks to enrich his campaigns is Justin Trudeau, the leader of the Liberal Party. Unlike his competitors, Justin Trudeau seems to be more creative and ready to try out new ideas to get things moving. Given the competitive nature of the upcoming Canadian elections, however, it is quite obvious that every candidate will ensure that his campaign team uses any available strategy to reach and woo voters.
Undoubtedly, the use of social media networks will enable political parties to deliver their messages to voters faster. If used well, social media networks will also enable political parties to send out messages to so many voters regardless of the means of communication at their disposal. The advanced technology in use today permits parties to contact voters using various means including mobile devices. Certainly, boundaries that existed in earlier campaigns are no longer a problem. The political marketing teams for the different parties must thus take time to understand how best to leverage the existing technology. Clearly, effective application of technology and especially social media networks will lead to a successful campaign.
Estimate of the Number of MPs
Despite the fact that the Conservative Party currently has the highest number of seats in parliament followed by the New Democrats Party, it seems obvious that the Liberal Party will have the highest number of seats in the next Canadian elections. Currently, the Conservative Party has 161 members of parliament followed by the New Democrats Party with 99 members. The Liberal Party is at position three with 36 seats (Ibbitson, 2014). Although it may appear unreasonable, it is possible for the Liberal Party to garner the most number of seats in during the 2015 elections in Canada. Nevertheless, the party must work extremely hard to develop a powerful political marketing strategy that will help it compete effectively.
As pointed out earlier, the Liberal Party is ready to try new strategies and its leader has chosen a brand that resonates quite well with voters. As a result, the party is likely to attract more voters than its competitors. With a powerful political marketing team in place and a leader who is focused on distinguishing himself from the rest, it is certainly possible for the party to rise and become the best.
Conclusion
From the discussion presented in this paper, there is a very high possibility that the Liberal Party will win the upcoming elections in Canada. Considering that Justin Trudeau appears to have unique ideas, he might have an easy time convincing voters. Although the Conservative Party is the incumbent, winning the next election will not be an easy task. The party has received praise for its great economic policies but victory in an election depends on many other factors as well. The Conservative Party has also been criticized for the Senate scandal and this has given its rivals a good campaign ground. Stephen Harper is also portrayed as an old fashioned leader without new ideas to move the country forward. The New Democrats Party on the other hand does not seem to enjoy popularity among Canadian voters. Mulcair has, however, been exemplary during Question Period.
To succeed, it will be necessary for the Liberal Party to have an aggressive political marketing team with a strong desire to succeed. The party should make use of available social media networks to communicate with supporters and to ensure that its messages reach as many voters as possible. It will also be necessary for the party to understand its strengths and weaknesses in order to know how best to conduct its campaigns. Trudeau’s political marketing teams should also seek to understand the strategies being used by competitors in order to devise countermeasures that will enable it to succeed in a competitive environment.
References
Barrett, J. (2014). Political Scientist, Pollster Call Justin Trudeau Senate Move a Smart Branding Strategy. Web.
Borins, S. (2013). Susan Delacourt’s Shopping for Votes: Playing the Ball or Playing the Person? Web.
Cournoyer, D. (2013). Nomination Races Begin for Federal Election 2015. Web.
Graefe, P. & Kiss, S. (2013). Uncharted Waters for Canada’s New Democratic Party. Web.
Grenier, E. (2013). 2015 Federal Election: For Harper, Trudeau and Mulcair, The Campaign Is Underway. Web.
Ibbitson, J. (2014). NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair’s next Task: Win over the Country. Web.
Marland, A. (2005). Political Marketing Communications in Canadian Parliamentary Elections at the Turn of the Millennium. Web.
Marland, A., Giasson, T. & Lees-Marshment, J. (2011). Political Marketing in Canada. Web.
Puzic, S. (2013). Three-Way Race Shaping up Ahead of 2015 Federal Election. Web.
Wyatt, N. (2014). Quebec Election 2014: New Poll Has Quebec Liberals Favored Over PQ. Web.