Introduction
The history of relationships between China, its neighbors, and the United States shows many developments where the countries changed their positions towards each other. Sino-American ties, for example, have often been challenged by military conflicts and the two nations’ desire to expand their position on the global market. China’s neighbors also experienced the influence of the growing Chinese economy on themselves, as the Asian country is gaining more power to establish its place in the region.
Nonetheless, the future of these connections remains unknown as Chinese and other nations’ officials do not overtly declare their opinion on the possibility of conflict. The analysis of the current relations among China, its neighbors, and the US suggests that a conflict between the two major nations is not impossible. Although it can be prevented, the growing economic tension may lead to increasing disputes.
Industrialization
The first concern that arises with the development of China is its rapidly progressing industrialization which has already placed China above many previously economically developed countries. Currently, the place of China on the global market is substantial – a large part of all manufacturing processes happens or is controlled by China (Zhong). Therefore, one may assume that the outcomes of the country’s growing role in business can lead to it accumulating funds for other assets. In particular, the connection between economic expansion and military power is outlined. Here, the argument can be based on the fact that China will soon be able to gather enough resources to strengthen its military and change its course from economic to political empowerment. According to Mearsheimer, this outcome is possible since China continues to develop and support various military endeavors (384).
Therefore, the notion that China may exercise its power after gaining enough resources is not implausible. If the country were to pursue this path, it would likely choose to dominate the region before moving outside of Asia.
A counterargument to this idea notes that China is currently focused on expanding its defensive capabilities rather than offensive ones. For example, their navy forces are seen as a defensive measure by the government. However, one should take into account, that military power, whether it is intended to defend or offend, is multifunctional. Moreover, the presence of a strong and developed army can be suggestive of a country’s readiness for any type of conflict.
While China and other states have a right to be thinking about their protection, the expansive growth of military capabilities cannot be dismissed by the neighbors of such countries. Mearsheimer presents the example of Australia, which grew concerned about China’s clash between its peaceful policies and military expansion (384). Those governments who are met with the growing defensive power of their neighbor cannot dismiss the probability of them using such weapons for other purposes.
Outward-Oriented Development
The history of previously existing dominant powers can make one worry about the future of China if the Asian country continues to accumulate power in the region and the world. Rising powers such as the Soviet Union, Imperialist Japan, and others can serve as an example of states that sought more control over neighboring lands to strengthen themselves and show their full potential. In this case, any ideas about the course of the nation’s further development will not affect China alone – they will most likely concern others countries as well.
China’s neighbors do not constitute a power that is similar to that of the US and other major players of the global economy (Brooks and Wohlforth 14). Thus, Chinese leaders may see the expansion of their rule as a potential for value accumulation. Moreover, a conflict with the US may be involved in changing China’s decisions and encouraging it to engage with its neighbors rather than other markets.
Nevertheless, at this moment, China maintains that it wishes to continue its Peaceful Rise. A counterargument may be presented that the country vocalizes its nonviolent intentions of growth and prosperity about its neighbors (Friedberg 13). Here, the main position that other nations can take is that of trust which is ultimately based on the Chinese officials’ words. This belief, while positive and hopeful, is not substantiated by evidence from history. Political relations between countries cannot be completely transparent due to the states’ desire to keep some information and future intentions private (Friedberg 10).
Moreover, government-issued statements are not irrevocable or unchangeable since political forces inside the country may change at any moment. Thus, countries should be always prepared for a major power to change its course if it is left unchallenged and unquestioned. It is unclear what China’s future intentions maybe, but it is reasonable to believe that they are subject to change in the future if anything encourages China to do so.
Neighbor’s Policies
The current state of international relations shows an increasing tension between China and the US about economic affairs. The idea that Chinese aggression may force its neighbors to install containment policies is becoming more realistic with time as the two major powers attempt to balance their place on the market. In 2018, the US increased its tariffs on Chinese products, establishing a conflict-inducing position for the Asian country (Zhong).
China responded with tariffs on American products as well, strengthening the divide between the two economies. However, as many of these products are manufactured in China, the country may find itself in a challenging position of balancing its soft power and economic prosperity. Such issues may affect the course of international relations significantly and impact the success of both involved nations. China and the US may recognize the harm that this conflict will bring or continue raising the tension and entering an even more prominent trade war.
One may argue that the actions of China and its current tensions will not end in an actual conflict which will endanger the safety of the region. Currently, China’s actions are targeted at the US and other prosperous countries that are interested in keeping China as their partner orally (Lampton 67).
However, basing the predictions for the future on China’s current lack of interest in gaining more power over the region reveals a lack of precaution to assess China’s opportunities. Currently, it can be seen that the US is not lowering its pressure on China, and a trade war is a problem that affects the core of China’s expansion. Thus, China may be destabilized by the latest changes to the point of looking for other options of keeping its status. As a result, it may choose to involve its neighbors and the region in the conflict. While such events may be inevitable, the escalation of the perceived trade war suggests that a dispute will be difficult to prevent.
Conclusion
Overall, one may see that the current position of China in the global market is uncertain. Although the country has gained significant power and recognition in the previous years, its conflict with the US may impact its following decisions substantially. One should not base the assumptions about China’s future on the fact that its presented policies are centered on peace and defense. It is vital to remember that the growth of economic and political power can make countries unstable in their decisions, especially if the internal political world is challenged by opposing opinions or changes in the government. Perhaps, China will be able to avoid entering a conflict with its neighbors.
This approach, however, is complicated by the fact that the currently recognized trade war puts both the US and China at a disadvantage of losing trade relations, export opportunities, and affordable goods. Neighboring countries should be wary of the changing economic landscape that China may go through because of this tension since it may increase the possibility of further conflicts.
Works Cited
Brooks, Stephen G., and William C. Wohlforth. “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-First Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position.” International Security, vol. 40, no. 3, 2016, pp. 7-53.
Friedberg, Aaron L. “The Future of US-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?” International Security, vol. 30, no. 2, 2005, pp. 7-45.
Lampton, David M. “A New Type of Major-Power Relationship: Seeking a Durable Foundation for US-China Ties.” Asia Policy, vol. 16, 2013, pp. 51-68.
Mearsheimer, John J. “The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to US Power in Asia.” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, vol. 3, no. 4, 2010, pp. 381-396.
Zhong, Raymond. “China Strikes Back at Trump’s Tariffs, but Its Consumers Worry.” The New York Times. 2018. Web.