Summary of the Proposal
Introduction
This research proposal seeks to determine how the Chinese economy will overtake the US in the next half a century. It will determine what China will do to achieve this dream. Currently, the Chinese economy is no doubt one of the most studied case examples in the modern world (Rodrick 349). Empirical evidence and statistics indicate that the average annual rate of the Chinese real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 1979 and 2003 was 10%.
Argument of the paper
Based on China’s economic trends since 1979, including the ability to overtake Japan as the second largest economy, one can argue that China will overtake the US by 2030.
How the study will address the issue
This study seeks will attempt to support this argument by using a mixed method to investigate the matter. It will use survey questions and questionnaires to acquire both qualitative and quantitative data.
Possible implications
The outcomes of the study will improve the existing knowledge and aid researchers and scholars in carrying out additional studies. The results will be useful to policy makers in US and China.
Research Question/ Hypothesis
In light of the above questions, the study will attempts to address the question on what China must do to sustain an enormous growth and gain competitiveness adequate to reach the status of the US economy.
Background
Over the last few decades, analysts have increased their interest in the study of Southeast Asian countries, focusing mainly on various variables of economic growth and development (Crompton and Wu 195). Analysts compare the declining US economic power to the rising Chinese economy to explicate the possibility of China becoming the new economic power by 2030 (Ash and Kueh 47).
According to the World Bank (2), a statistical comparison between China and the US over the last four decades provide evidence that China’s GDP has a positive slope while America’s GDP slope is negative (Chow and Li 126). America’s greatest change in GDP was recorded in 1978 when it reached 13.4% within one year (Crompton and Wu 197). However, it maintained a constant decline over the years.
According to the International Monetary Fund IFM (2), the Chinese GDP in terms of current market rates as well as prices is about $8.5 trillion, surpassing 50% of the total GDP of the United States of America. OECD (12) reports that the Purchasing Power Parity of the Chinese economy is over $18 trillion, exceeding the forecasted PPP of the US (Renz 117).
Moreover, the enormous rate of growth in the last three decades indicates that the Chinese economy might overtake the US in the last two decades. Economists base their argument on the short time it took China to overtake Japan (Economy 36). China has proved that it will take a short time to reach the US. The large Chinese population of more than one billion people and huge industries prove that the country is fast becoming a major economic powerhouse (Wade 237).
However, a number of economic and political analysis as well as critics cite a number of aspects that will hinder the Chinese growth in the next few years. For instance, a slowed growth rate is evident. It is not known whether china will continue growing in the current rate. In addition, the measures and steps needed to sustain the current growth rate are not well defined.
Approach/methods
Study design
The proposed study will be quantitative and qualitative in nature. The researcher will adopt a mixed method in which both statistical and descriptive data will be obtained in order to address the question from a wider perspective. In addition, the study will draw information from wider sources.
Data collection methods
First, an in-depth review of literature will be done to obtain information from various economic and social analyses of the Chinese growth trends in the last three decades. Secondly, a review of literature will also consider the political and economic associations that the two countries have involved in the last three decades to determine their differences and impacts on their economies. A survey will be developed to obtain data from literature materials.
Materials
The survey will be conducted using survey questions. A questionnaire with the survey questions will be developed and used by the researcher to examine the past and current initiatives and strategies that employed by China to attain and sustain large economic growth rates.
Secondly, the review of literature will be conducted based on a set of questions prepared to examine the major findings of previous research studies. Thirdly, questionnaires will be sent to the target institutions seeking to know what they know, think and predict in relationship to the Chinese future as a global economy.
Data analysis
Statistical data analysis will be done using SPSS version 18.0. Qualitative data analysis will be done through coding to elucidate important information. Qualitative data will be examined to elucidate important findings that will help in determining what china will do and how it will proceed towards overtaking the US economy in 2030.
Assumptions, validity and limitations
Time, resource and material constraints are likely to delay the process. However, it is expected that the results will be valid because the study takes a mixed method approach. In addition, it is assumed that economic indicators such as GDP and PPP reflect the actual state of an economy.
Preliminary findings and discussion
It is expected that the study will reveal that China is set to overtake the US as the largest economic power by 2030. The study will reveal a number of initiates and strategies that China will need to adopt in order to sustain a large economic growth and obtain a competitive advantage over the US.
This study will provide an in-depth analysis of evidence proving that China will compete with the US as the world’s largest economic powerhouse. In particular, the study will show that the country must continue improving its procedures and tasks that have helped it obtain economic competitiveness over the USA in the last three decades.
The study will also show that the current aggressiveness that China is taking in its foreign policy will help it gain a competitive advantage of the US in the next two decades. For example, the study will show that China’s current foreign policy that focuses mainly on the developing world will help its economy obtain affordable raw materials as well as market in these nations.
For instance, the current aggressive policy that China is using to improve African infrastructure in return for raw materials will enhance production and industrial growth. China will obtain oil and other raw materials from the second and third world countries at a better price that before. In addition, China’s relationship with developing world mainly in Africa, South America and Asia will ensure that American control of these economies is limited.
Overall contribution
This study will have a profound impact on the existing knowledge in the fields of international politics and global economy. It will describe how statistical, economic and political analyses provide evidence that China will eventually compete with the US as the world’s largest economic power. Taking the past growth trends and using them to show that China will overtake the US has been the major grounds that most of these methods have used to argue that China will overtake the US.
The study will also provide evidence that the American economy will continue to decline or achieve small margins of annual growth over the coming years. In fact, the study will also fill the gap in knowledge created by the presence of global competitors in America’s major traditional markets, especially in Europe, where China and South Korea have become aggressive.
The study will provide additional evidence that China’s current trends need additional strategies to improve its global competitiveness. In particular, the study will increase the existing knowledge about the relationship between the past trends and the future progress of the country’s huge economy.
Although the country has shown its ability to carry out progressive activities in overtaking the other countries economically, the ability to overtake the US will need additional steps and initiatives (Crompton and Wu 195). Therefore, it is expected that this study will try to determine some of the important steps that will help China acquire competitiveness over the US.
Nevertheless, there are few studies, if any, that have attempted to describe “how” this will happen. How will the Chinese economy overtake the US? What will china do to ensure that it sustains a large economic growth rate over the coming years? In fact, these questions are yet to be answered, posing an important gap that needs additional studies to fill.
Works Cited
Ash, Robert and Yan Kueh. Chinese Economy in the 1990s. Oxford University Press, 2005. Print
Chow, Gregory and Kui‐Wai Li. “China’s Economic Growth: 1952–2010.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 51.1 (2002): 247-256. Print
Crompton, Paul and Yanrui Wu. “Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions.” Energy Economics 27.1(2005): 195-208. Print.
Economy, Elizabeth C. The river runs black: the environmental challenge to China’s future. New York: Cornell University Press, 2011. Print.
International Monetary Fund. World economic analysis. New York: IMF, 2013. Print.
OECD. The emergence of the Chinese market: 2013 Report. New York: OECD, 2013. Print.
Renz, Z. “The institutional dynamics of China’s great transformation”. The developing economies, 51.1 (2013): 115-117. Print
Rodrick, Dave. “Whats so special about China’s exports? “ NBER, 2.1 (2012): 349-356. Print.
The World Bank. Economic Trends of emerging markets. New York: WB, 2013. Print
Wade, Robert. Governing the market: Economic theory and the role of government in East Asian industrialization. Princeton University Press, 2010. Print