Introduction
Climate is naturally stable, with seasonal changes, ocean currents, volcanic activity, solar radiation, and events like El Niño and Indian monsoons occurring with a certain regularity. Changes in regular weather patterns, such as shifts in the dates of the tropical rainy season or variations in the frequency of extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, and storms, can occur (Sakijege & Dakyaga, 2023). Milankovitch Cycles, or fluctuations in the amount of sunlight and radiation, have been the primary driver of climate change over the last thousand to millions of years.
However, Earth’s climate has changed substantially over the last 150 years, and it is critical to understand what has driven these drastic changes in such a short period. An international consensus of experts has proven the human origins of climate change. An international consensus of specialists has proved that humans cause climate change.
According to some estimates, human activity has raised temperatures by about 1.0° C relative to pre-industrial levels (Sakijege & Dakyaga, 2023). At this rate, global warming is expected to raise temperatures by 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052 (Sakijege & Dakyaga, 2023). The biggest threat humanity faces is climate change, which is accompanied by declining biodiversity. The increase in average temperature is currently having a significant impact on the planet’s climate, and these effects will become more pronounced in the coming years.
Dar es Salaam is one of Africa’s fastest-growing cities and Tanzania’s key economic engine. However, the consequences of climate change are already seen in this city. Flooding is prevalent among locals, and a major flood in 2012 killed numerous people (Chang’a et al., 2021). Tanzania’s native crafts are under threat due to global warming.
Every year, the people of this East African country struggle to cultivate food and fish. As a result, the city’s economic activities and growing population must be protected against the harmful impacts of climate change while also mitigating the environmental impact. An evaluation of Tanzania’s climate change policies and practices reveals significant strides and challenges, with Dar es Salaam’s flood response illustrating both the successes and areas needing improvement.
Background
Tanzania is in the Southeast African region and borders Kenya and Uganda to the north, Mozambique, Malawi, and Zambia to the south, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda to the west. The Indian Ocean to the east, Lake Tanganyika to the west, Lake Nyasa to the south, and Lake Victoria to the north form the country’s boundaries. Deep tectonic valleys and the Giant Crater Highlands mark Tanzania’s western and south-western borders.
The Serengeti Plateau, which reaches heights of 1200-1500 meters, lies to the north (Chang et al., 2021). The Rufiji, Pangani, and Ruvuma rivers are all active, draining into the Indian Ocean in the east (Chang’a et al., 2021). Rock salt, coal, gold, diamonds, nickel, copper, phosphorites, iron and uranium ores, silver, natural gas, and tin are all common minerals found in this area.
Tanzania is a country located in the subtropical climatic zone. The average temperature in January rises to 24-25°C, whereas in July, it is 22-23°C (Chang’a et al., 2021). However, normal January temperatures in the state’s coastal parts are notably higher, reaching 27-29°C, whereas temperatures in northern Tanzania are slightly lower (Chang’a et al., 2021). The average annual rainfall in the state is up to 1000 millimeters (Borhara et al. 2020).
Tanzania has daily average temperatures of up to 28°C and rainfall of up to 50mm (Borhara et al., 2020). The north has two rainy seasons: March-May and September-November. The southern part has only one rainy season, which lasts from November to April (Sweya and Wilkinson, 2020).
The climate in coastal islands is quite humid. Borhara et al. (2020) report an average daily temperature of around 30 degrees Celsius. The sea breeze significantly influences the weather here, and the Indian Ocean’s temperature ranges from 24 to 26°C (Sweya & Wilkinson, 2020). Furthermore, the temperature drops in the evening, making the evenings fairly chilly.
However, due to its location, the country is severely affected by global warming, particularly in areas such as Dar es Salaam. The effects of climate change are damaging farmers’ crops and forcing them to seek government assistance. Climate experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) predict that droughts in Tanzania will worsen and local land conditions will deteriorate (Luhunga & Songoro, 2020).
Half of Tanzania’s population, especially in Dar es Salaam, lives below the poverty line, with a daily income of $1.90 or less (Luhunga & Songoro, 2020). 34% of children under the age of five are malnourished and stunted, and over 45% of women of reproductive age are anemic (Luhunga & Songoro, 2020). Fishermen, like farmers in Dar es Salaam, are affected by climate change, with marine life moving further away from shorelines as coastal water temperatures rise. Tanzania’s fishing sector employs 14 million people and provides more than 35% of the country’s rural population (Luhunga & Songoro, 2020). However, the industry’s contribution to the country’s GDP has been declining significantly each year.
Despite climate disasters, Tanzania’s economy has grown significantly over the past decade. The Tanzanian government aims to increase income to the national average by 2025. Now, the gross national income per capita is 1,080 USD per year (Luhunga & Songoro, 2020). However, the bank’s experts warn that these expectations are completely unattainable at the current pace of development. The global crisis has had a significant impact on the local economy, as tourism accounts for more than 17% of the national GDP (Sweya & Wilkinson, 2020).
Nevertheless, the government is implementing policies to combat the effects of global warming, with support from international organizations and investors. With the help of American experts, the authorities are studying the impact of climate change on the environment and developing programs to improve freshwater management. With policies in place, the government is managing the effects and adapting to the conditions that people in Tanzania, especially in Dar es Salaam, have to live with.
Climate Change Policies in Tanzania
The Water Resources Integration Development Initiative (WARIDI) has been in place in Tanzania since 2016. More than 409,000 people now have access to safe drinking water, 1.2 million have improved their living circumstances, and 6,400 farmers have access to cutting-edge technology and management approaches (Sweya & Wilkinson, 2020). The African country has received $4.57 billion in aid over the last decade, with 11% allocated to boosting water supplies and only 3% to agriculture (Sweya & Wilkinson, 2020). The majority of the money was used to address transportation issues.
The current support framework agreement (CPF) is between the World Bank and the Tanzanian government and runs from 2018 to 2022. It is the second five-year cooperation plan between the local authorities and the international institution (Borhara et al., 2020). Tanzania ratified the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016 and announced that it intends to cut CO2 emissions by 10-20% from 1990 levels by 2030 (Sweya & Wilkinson, 2020). The government will need to set aside around 1-2% of its GDP each year for this reason(Luhunga & Songoro, 2020). Tanzania’s biggest natural attraction, Africa’s tallest peak, Kilimanjaro, is suffering from global warming.
Tanzania, as one of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), is required by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to prepare a National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA). In 2007, Tanzania met this commitment, and the NAPA is the primary strategy document for Tanzania’s adaptation policy (Mzava et al., 2020). The Vice President’s Environment Unit is responsible for producing the NAPA; however, many other stakeholders are also participating.
The study team is multidisciplinary, and information on vulnerability and adaptation measures was gathered collectively. The NAPA was developed with input from stakeholders in academics, government, the commercial sector, and the local level. Tanzania’s National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) 2021-26 outlines several adaptation and mitigation actions for important sectors of the economy. These include boosting renewable green energy technology and bolstering climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts.
One significant purpose of stakeholder involvement was to make it easier to collect information and climate data, as the current database of predicted climate impacts is quite limited in many poor nations. For example, the Qatar Charity Organization is assisting flood victims in Tanzania. It also includes Plan International, a major children’s non-governmental organization that works in 49 developing countries to enhance the lives of vulnerable and underprivileged youth. As a result, local knowledge and existing climate consequences are frequently used to inform planning procedures and particular adaptation solutions.
Critically assessing the integration of policies into national development plans, it can be concluded that it has some shortcomings. The downside of this technique is that it does not enable long-term planning. Thus, the primary goal of the NAPA is to identify the most urgent interventions. A total of 72 projects were examined, of which 14 were selected to begin the implementation phase (Mzava et al., 2020). The majority of Tanzania’s initiatives are dedicated to agriculture and water management (irrigation, water conservation, and rainwater collecting), but energy and tourism are also important.
NAPA adaptation initiatives are technological in nature and may include plans for irrigation and water storage infrastructure, as well as electrification measures utilizing micro-hydropower. Priorities include the sustainable use of scarce natural resources and the production of drought-tolerant seeds. The implementation of the listed projects is divided across the respective ministries rather than being centralized. International agencies such as the UN Development Programme and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development fund many adoption initiatives.
Dar es Salaam: A Case Study on Flood Response
The city of Dar es Salaam is characterized topographically by lowlands below sea level, making it highly vulnerable to flooding and coastal erosion. Approximately 8% of Dar es Salaam lies in a low coastal zone more than 10 meters below sea level (Mzava et al., 2020). In 2005, models estimated that 30,000 people would be affected by 100-year coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, with potential asset losses of $35 million (Mzava et al., 2020). The geology of Dar es Salaam, along with increasingly erratic rainfall and rising sea levels, heightens the risk of flooding.
Although yearly rainfall has decreased, extreme precipitation is becoming more frequent. This has impacted people, companies, and the environment, as evidenced by the medium-to-high flood risk. Floods frequently disrupt urban traffic, damage homes, and reduce economic activity. Flooding, for example, wrecked roads and bridges in April 2018, displacing 1,215 families and resulting in household losses of around $100 million (Mzava et al., 2020).
Population growth, inadequate drainage, and the lack of vegetation all contribute to flooding by preventing stormwater from being absorbed by aquifers. Rainfall patterns can also affect long-term water security. Climate change, for example, is expected to cause a 10% drop in the Ruvu River, Dar es Salaam’s primary water source.
Flooding is also a possibility due to ocean storm surges. The percentage of urban areas at risk was found to be minimal, indicating that Dar es Salaam’s elevation profile makes it less vulnerable to coastal flooding than other coastal towns in East Africa. Persistent floods and inadequate infrastructure have led to outbreaks of diseases such as diarrhea and other illnesses. However, around 143,000 individuals with $168 million in assets continue to reside in the lowlands (Mzava et al., 2020).
Furthermore, much-increased risk estimates for sea-level rise and coastal erosion indicate mounting dangers to the city’s future. Dar es Salaam’s beaches have retreated by several meters during the last 50 years (Mzava et al., 2020). For example, the beaches of Kunduchi were significantly impacted by rising sea levels, resulting in the loss of 200 meters of coastline and the destruction of houses, businesses, and public structures.
In Dar es Salaam, almost three-quarters of the population live in informal settlements such as Tandale, a massive labyrinthine neighborhood of flimsy concrete buildings where children play hide-and-seek near open drains. Here, flooding practically every rainy season causes disease outbreaks. Dilapidated sewage systems in the central business area (CBD) and commercial center frequently fail during the rainy season, causing sewage to overflow and endangering people’s health (Nassor & Makame, 2021). While the government struggles to address the consequences of climate change, local populations bear the brunt of the strain due to logistical and infrastructural constraints.
The Effective Flood Protection and Climate-Smart Solid Waste Management Project in Dar es Salaam aims to reduce the city’s susceptibility to climate-related flooding. It combines two approaches: flood risk management and community-based waste management. CFF is assisting the Dar es Salaam City Council (DCC) in identifying suitable flood-mitigation and community-based solid waste management measures for the Msimbazi River’s middle catchment region (Nassor & Makame, 2021). To address significant urban growth, the municipal authorities revised the Dar es Salaam Master Plan to establish an Urban Development Authority responsible for infrastructure planning and development, including transportation and utility services.
Following the recent publication of the Dar es Salaam Thematic Atlas, an innovative decision support tool for natural decision-making in the urban setting, the municipality has now published its Local Biodiversity Strategy. It has also released an Action Plan (LBSAP) as a form of community adaptation (John, 2020). The plan, produced by a variety of partners and led by ICLEI – Local Authorities for Sustainable Development and the Dar es Salaam City Council, outlines the city’s strategic goals for the use and management of its natural assets and biodiversity. Furthermore, the plan defines specific strategies and goals to increase green spaces, protect biodiversity, and enhance natural amenities for residents.
DarMAERT is a warning system that was developed as a special squad roughly 12 years ago during an emergency operation in response to an unintentional explosion of an ammunition stockpile in Dar es Salaam’s Gongo la Mboto neighborhood. This squad is still in operation. Members of the Dar es Salaam Regional Secretariat, municipalities, the Tanzania Red Cross Society, the police, fire and rescue forces, hospitals, and ambulance services make up the majority of its core membership (John, 2020). DarMAERT also comprises additional member organizations that help with operations as needed, such as utility corporations and the business sector.
Evaluation of Policies and Practices
Tanzanian authorities see climate change as a serious concern and are working to enhance resilience, though these plans are still in their early stages of implementation. This is why minimizing flood danger in some regions of Dar es Salaam has been difficult thus far. However, government action and collaboration with NGOs are increasing awareness of the problem. Tanzania faces several obstacles as it adapts to climate change (Chang’a et al., 2021).
Tanzania faces significant challenges in responding to climate change due to limited financial resources and the lack of sophisticated technology. Insufficient financing impedes the implementation of adaptation measures, limiting the country’s capacity to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and research. The lack of access to relevant socioeconomic technologies, such as drought-resistant crops or weather-monitoring equipment, exacerbates the difficulty of successfully responding to consequences. However, the government and organizations still managed to achieve some success in Tanzania in the area of climate change. They have reduced flooding-related vulnerability in some areas of Dar es Salaam. This was achieved through increased awareness and community involvement in climate change initiatives.
Case Study Analysis: Flooding in Dar es Salaam
As stated earlier, flooding is a very common occurrence in Dar es Salaam. In 2020, at least 12 people were killed in Tanzania’s major city, Dar es Salaam, as a consequence of floods and landslides caused by torrential rains (The Watchers, 2022). The flooding has devastated various districts in Dar es Salaam, and 12 people have been killed (The Watchers, 2022). Similar floods occur every year in Dar es Salaam, one of Africa’s fastest-expanding cities, but, due to inadequate planning, these natural events become artificial tragedies (The Watchers, 2022). Figure 1 depicts the outcomes of the flood in Dar es Salaam.
The Tanzania Emergence Preparedness and Response Plan is a functional plan for responding to an emergency or significant catastrophe, encompassing any event with the potential or imminent threat of occurring. It was used during the 2020 flood, helping prevent many casualties (The Watchers, 2022). The local government played an important role in implementing the flood strategy (The United Republic of Tanzania, 2012).
While flooding has delayed local mapping teams’ work by rendering certain parts of the city inaccessible, it has also highlighted the critical need for accurate maps of flood-prone regions. For this reason, a lesson learned from this case that can serve as a guideline for future policies is the development of accurate maps. As a result of previous experiences, HOT mapping represents a significant advancement in disaster preparation and response in the city. Figure 2 shows a map of the affected areas of the city.
Recommendations for Enhancing Climate Change Policies and Practices
Global warming is irreversible, but it is still feasible to limit it to avert the worst-case scenario. To do so, people must alter the existing trajectory of carbon emissions to make a gradual transition to a reduction trajectory, to a level sustainable with the ecological capacity of the natural environment. A shift to a downward trajectory would necessitate a 50% reduction by 2050, with further reductions expected thereafter (Nassor & Makame, 2021).
The uneven condition of countries raises the issue of “burden sharing,” which should be addressed in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and capacities. Flooding and global warming, in general, should receive more attention to make policies more logical. Tanzania should form a single organization to address this important issue.
Policy measures such as boosting the adoption of green technologies will contribute to significant development. Establishing rain gardens, improving roadside drainage, and planting trees would be a significant step forward in alleviating the problem, as they all offer opportunities to boost infiltration and groundwater storage throughout the city. However, because Tanzanians are primarily concerned with their land, most efforts must be made at the community level. Increasing community engagement and incorporating indigenous knowledge can be beneficial. To do this, special groups must educate the people on the effects of global warming.
Creating even deeper links with international organizations and other nations would also be beneficial. More developed countries will be able to share their experiences and accomplishments in flood management and other aspects of global warming. Tanzania’s government must become more involved in certain activities and coalitions to gain international support and collaboration (John, 2020). Furthermore, the country must share with the world the implications of the global crisis that its people face daily.
Conclusion
As a result, Tanzania’s policies continue to fall short of addressing the effects of global warming. Dar es Salaam, being a coastal city, was required to plan for recurrent flooding, marine and land pollution, coastal erosion, and watershed salinization. If informal settlements are renovated, urban residents’ vulnerability to the negative consequences of climate change will be reduced, thereby improving social well-being. Given the social and economic challenges Dar es Salaam residents face, the city must adopt a holistic approach to climate change. Climate change initiatives should deliver demonstrable benefits beyond adaptation and mitigation, such as reducing poverty, creating jobs, and improving the social well-being of Dar es Salaam citizens.
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