Online and offline purchase behavior studies have become quite numerous and widespread. On the one hand, earlier studies argue that purchase intention is the key motivator for the consumers. On the other hand, recent inquiries show that purchase behavior plays a far more significant role than the initial plan to buy anything. Qualitative forecasting techniques show that individual buying habits are more critical in purchase decision making.
Qualitative Forecasting
Qualitative forecasting is an approach based upon subjective factors at times when there is no sufficient data to use quantitative techniques. Qualitative method is based upon judgment and intuition of the experts in the matter and consumers. Forecasters usually apply this method for intermediate or long-range predictions (Ezeliora, Umeh, Mbeledeogu, & Okoye, 2014). There are four basic qualitative forecasting techniques: executive opinion, sales force opinion, Delphi method, and consumers’ opinion.
Executive opinion is averaged subjective views of key members from all departments about the number of sales during the examined period. The executives usually discuss a matter during a brainstorming session or other meeting. Therefore, the forecast is made quickly and easily without the need to elaborate statistics and charts. However, this is still groupthink, so leaders and other authorities present in the room may affect the opinions of individual members making the forecast less objective (Ezeliora et al., 2014). Another relevant and straightforward forecasting technique is sales force polling as it consists of opinions of people close to the action. Salespeople are the closest to the customers and can provide specialized predictions about the specific territory and period.
Consumers’ opinions are usually obtained through surveys using telephone contacts, questionnaires, and interviews with the customers. This technique is especially relevant for business with a limited market to find out their customers’ future needs and make an accurate forecast. Equally important is the Delphi method which is a jury’s opinion taken anonymously and analyzed by a panel of experts. Even though all the techniques mentioned above are subjective and may be considered inaccurate, experts continue using qualitative forecasting at times when there is no sufficient historical data.
Online Purchase Behavior
Getting to know consumer online purchase behavior is crucial for those who want to succeed in selling their goods on the internet. In the past 60 year psychologists and consumer behavior researchers implied a powerful influence on purchase decision (Liu, Li, & Hu, 2013). This means that people who are shopping online often make their decision about purchasing something relying on the impulse rather than on a plan. On the one hand, it is common knowledge that most people do not buy online if they have not planned to do so. On the other hand, the sole intention does not guarantee that a customer will buy at a certain online store. Several factors influence customers’ purchase decision, among those factors is the overall attractiveness of the website, secure payment methods, positive feedback, fast and safe shipping, and client support availability (Lim, Osman, Salahuddin, Romle, & Abdullah, 2016).
Moreover, in specific scenarios, customers may buy something entirely without a plan especially when it comes to buying new types of products. Liu et al. (2013) mention that purchases of unfamiliar brands “result more from impulse than from prior planning” (p. 83). So, controlling and influencing online purchase is far more important than getting to know what customers actually want.
Conclusion
Under the above-mentioned circumstances, it is only natural that online stores use qualitative forecasting techniques to examine the specific online purchase behavior their customers have. Customers’ surveys, salespeople’s opinion, and the opinions of experts are common sources of information for the online business to improve the buying experience thus increasing their sales. So, today’s studies show that getting to know consumer online purchase behavior is much more valuable than information regarding what customers plan or want to do.
References
Ezeliora, C. D., Umeh M. N., Mbeledeogu, N. N., & Okoye U. P. (2014). Application of forecasting methods for the estimation of production demand. Decision Support Systems, 3(2), 2–20.
Lim, Y., Osman, A., Salahuddin, S., Romle, A., & Abdullah, S. (2016). Factors influencing online shopping behavior: The mediating role of purchase intention. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35, 401-410.
Liu, Y., Li, H., & Hu F. (2013). Website attributes in urging online impulse purchase: An empirical investigation on consumer perceptions. International Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology Research, 55, 829–837.
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