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Cuban Economy: Country Risk Analysis Research Paper


Cuba

GDP

The analysis of the Cuban economy shows that the results of 2013 and 2016 differ considerably. In 2013, GDP growth was about 2.7%, which was below the official target (Vidal and Wener 3). Cuba’s GDP in 2013 was $77.15 billion. The same authors predicted that in 2016, GDP growth would be about 6.7% (Vidal and Wener 4). The current predictions and evaluations show that the last GDP in Cuba was $80.66 billion (Trading Economics: Cuba GDP par.2). It is expected to reach $82.68 billion by the end of the quarter, which is about 4.6% of the growth (Trading Economics: Cuba GDP par.1).

Employment

The question of employment is frequently discussed and developed in Cuba. People tried to find jobs regarding their needs and possibilities. In 2015, the unemployment rate achieved 2.4% in comparison to the results of 2014, when the rate was about 2.7%. The unemployment rate in 2016 is planned to be decreased as well.

Risk Analysis

Cuba is a one-party country with a good example of a totalitarian regime. Its current leader, Raul Castro, controls the majority of the decisions made at the governmental level. Political dimensions and the power of the government on speech rights and freedoms challenge the county. The economic situation is not stable due to the existing lack of capital investment, stalled state economy, and currency confusion that makes calculations too complicated and inconvenient for spheres of trade and tourism (Alonso and Lee par.5). The social climate is favorable indeed due to the presence of bi-culture and a high level of literacy.

The existing governmental control and the human rights issues are still open for discussion because people are not always satisfied with the decisions made. The Supreme Court of Cuba is the highest national juridical branch of the government. Regardless of the presence of different legal bodies, Cuba is a corrupt country with no proper civic education.

Libya

GDP

Libya’s GDP was about $65.51 billion in 2013, $41.14 billion in 2014, and $29.15 billion in 2015 (Trading Economics: Libya GDP par.1). The decrease is evident: -1.12% is expected at the end of 2016. The changes cannot be ignored regarding the progress of 2012. Therefore, the government continues making numerous opportunities to change the situation.

Employment

In 2014, the unemployment rate was about 19.5%. Regarding the current war and political conflict of the country, it is hard to find out recent changes that could be defined as evident and true. Still, it is possible to predict that the rates could hardly be improved. Much attention and resources are spent on the development and support of the war.

Risk Analysis

The risk analysis of Libya differs from other countries because there is a war in the country at the moment. Therefore, all spheres are under the threat of an unstable situation. For example, the political risks include the unstable political situation, the possibility of governmental restructuring, and the promotion of violence by the political leaders. The legal aspects are also not perfect, due to the facts of kidnapping and torturing people and the inability to impose law and order on citizens. People do not have or do not want to believe in the power of laws and choose to use guns or other weapons to prove their decisions and thoughts.

The economic challenges play an important role in the country as well. The war influenced foreign trade conditions because business people are not satisfied with the fact that the auditing system and exporting funds cannot be controlled. Besides, the country depends on the oil and gas industry only. Social risk factors include unsafe living conditions, threats to human wellbeing, and the necessity to re-evaluate the role of women in society because men have to participate in the war.

China

GDP

In 2013, GDP in China was $9,490.6 billion. During the last three years, it has been growing considerably. In 2015, it reached the point of $10,866.44 billion and became second in the ranking list of GDP globally (Trading Economics: China GDP par.1). If the same steps are taken, it is expected to observe 6.5% growth by the end of the quarter of the current year (Trading Economics: China GDP Annual Growth Rate par.1).

Employment

More than 1.3 billion people live in China, and about 764.2 million are employed in rural and urban areas of the country. The unemployment rate is about 4.1%, meaning that more than 9 million people have no official jobs.

Risk Analysis

In the global market, China takes the leading positions. The country also succeeds in developing its successful political, economic, social, and legal climates. However, China is characterized by several risky situations. For example, there is a conflict between the central government of the country and its provisional/local governments. There are also the risks of confiscation and currency inconvertibility that makes the idea of business development unpredictable. The economy of China continues to slow. A kind of rebalance between consumption and services is required. The profits of small and weak companies are in danger.

The outcomes in the forms of a high inflation rate and high property prices could be observed. Social issues play an important role in China due to the growth of the population and the allocation of cultural values. People support the importance of education, literacy, and the Internet in their lives. Social demonstrations and increased unemployment rates are the main social risks of the country. The legal system is not perfect. Many Chinese businesspeople are accused of violating laws or confusing tax issues because of the weak administrative system.

Works Cited

Alonso, Pablo Gonzalez, and Alec Lee. “The Potential and Pitfalls of Doing Business in Cuba.” Harvard Business Review. 2016: n.pag. Web.

2016. Web.

2016. Web.

2016. Web.

Trading Economics: Libya GDP 2016. Web.

Vidal Pavel, and Johannes Werner. “Cuba Standard: Economic Report 2014. Web.

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IvyPanda. (2020, October 9). Cuban Economy: Country Risk Analysis. Retrieved from https://ivypanda.com/essays/cuban-economy-country-risk-analysis/

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IvyPanda. 2020. "Cuban Economy: Country Risk Analysis." October 9, 2020. https://ivypanda.com/essays/cuban-economy-country-risk-analysis/.

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IvyPanda. (2020) 'Cuban Economy: Country Risk Analysis'. 9 October.

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