Abstract
The following report considers what steps an intelligence agency can take to respond to the information about a drug trafficking operation. First, all known information is discussed and evaluated using a standardized validity tool. Second, additional information and its sources are considered. As a result, one of the initial steps is proposed – data collection through police databases, surveillance, and communication interception.
Next, the examination of previous cases and gathered information is required, using social network analysis, event charting, and flow analysis. These methods are essential in uncovering the missing links between the received pieces of knowledge about drug trafficking. The threat of this crime is high because drug-related activities help organized crime to increase and finance other illegal activities. The analysis allows the agency to not only intercept one event of drug smuggling but also see the connections between criminals and their businesses. The lack of action in the initial stages poses several threats to the population, and awareness-raising programs, as well as international participation, are vital for increasing the chances of success.
Introduction
The described scenario presents the situation where research conducted by the United Kingdom’s national detective agency detects a criminal network smuggling drugs. The following report presents the data that was and can be collected by the detective agency. Next, it analyses the information and assesses the threat as well as risks that it poses to the country and its residents. The report offers a number of hypotheses for the situation’s resolution, evaluating their probability and presenting the most balanced approach.
Moreover, it provides opportunities for positive intervention and creates a list of recommendations, the management of risks, and the actions that the commander for action may take. Overall, the data evaluation will demonstrate the necessity to implement a set of passive and active interventions not only to intercept the illegal activity but also to disrupt the market for illicit substances.
Data for Collection
It is suggested that the organization smuggling drugs into the UK are based in London, England. Moreover, the place of drugs entering the country is identified as the south coast, including territories of Hampshire, West Sussex, and Dorset. The organization has chosen boats as the primary transportation method, and drugs are believed to enter the country through ports and harbors. This is the extent of the information available at the start of the research. It is clear that these facts alone cannot guarantee that all elements present the full picture correctly.
To continue the investigation, one has to evaluate the data and its source using validity tools. The primary instrument is the six by six system that measures source and data reliability (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime [UNODC], 2011). In regards to the source of data, it cannot be judged as no additional information about the researcher or their informants exists. Nonetheless, as the knowledge is considered to be developed as a part of an investigation, one may assess the source as reliable. Next, the data’s validity has to be questioned according to its logic, consistency, and confirmability. At this point in the investigation, more information is necessary to establish this data’s alignment with previously acquired knowledge.
To obtain additional data and possibly uncover the identities of the organizers, one has to use the agency’s resources and its contacts with other government entities. To address the situation from multiple points, it is crucial to consider the agency’s knowledge about the existing organizations as well as the different parts of the research. The first element that has to be developed is the list of organizations that could potentially be involved with the smuggling of drugs in the mentioned region. According to (National Crime Agency, 2018), the UK is one of the well-known destinations for drug supplies. Thus, it is possible that a variety of groups can be involved in this transaction. To determine which of these entities is the perpetrator, one has to consult the current Police National Database as well as engage in surveillance.
The search for organizers is made more productive with the use of Social Network Analysis (SNA). As Berlusconi, Calderoni, Parolini, Verani, and Piccardi (2016) explain, SNA uses the information obtained during investigative activities and helps bring all criminal activities, events, meetings, communications, and businesses into a network where the missing links between individuals and groups are located. Thus, after collecting data from databases and using communication surveillance, the research recommends SNA as one of the tools for intelligence development.
The history of organized crime also suggests that certain ‘hot spots’ can often be identified in cases with drug trafficking. Since criminals in businesses usually establish long-term connections with suppliers, they may choose a number of locations where the risk of being caught is lower than in other regions (National Crime Agency, 2019). This difference in security may be due to law enforcement activity, corruption, land protection, and legal issues. The region of the southwest bank has to be assessed on the previous incidents of smuggling to see whether some spots have higher overall crime rates and drug smuggling, in particular.
Moreover, one has to analyze this historical information about drug smuggling on boats to see which ports and harbors could be more likely to be engaged in such operations currently. This data, however, may be interpreted differently, depending on the level of law enforcement activity in the region. Murji (2018) notes that active persecution in certain hot pots can stop organized crime from occurring in the area, urging the perpetrators to move to other locations or find other routes of transportation. Thus, the history of the region (south coast) may reveal which ports would not be a part of this investigation and which would require increased attention. This factor is vital in discovering the role of each location in perpetrators’ plans.
Another hypothesis can be formed on the basis of criminal’s conversations intercepted by the detective agency. While the collected historical data may give some suggestions about the potential meeting places, it can also be insufficient as many locations can be still undiscovered. In contrast, the use of surveillance also has benefits and drawbacks that rely on the effectiveness of operations and the safety concerns of organized crime actors (Cayford & Pieters, 2018; Morelato et al., 2018). There exists a potential of disrupting the supply, losing all connections between the local organization and the drug source.
After collecting historical data, one may analyze which activities the intelligence agency can perform as a part of an investigation and further elimination of the threat. Data collection, as mentioned above, involves existing database logs, surveillance, communication disruption, and police interrogation. This information has to be assessed using the six-by-six grading system for sources and statements. After the evaluation and analysis, all data has to undergo sanitization – the process of removing the links to sources and methods of obtaining the knowledge (Budhram, 2015). In the end, the resulting report should not show whether a person or machine provided the information.
The subsequent analysis of obtained data can be performed using link analysis, event charting, flow analysis, and telephone data examination. First of all, the SNA approach to link analysis is described above – it helps to present the information about possible involved persons and their relations (Gill, 2018; UNODC, 2011). Here, the data can refer to drug users, their dealers, local distributors, suppliers, and other individuals from the organization participating in trafficking. By using the fact that the local group is involved, one can start from its members and move in both locations – to clients and suppliers.
The second type of analysis is event charting – it will consider each meeting and other valuable situations, making predictions about future activities. For instance, if the detective agency will learn about previous shipment dates, client purchases, and deal negotiations, its staff can chart the past events and see the period between episodes as well as their regularity.
Third, the flow analysis should bring the information together and show the connection to the higher levels in the crime organization. Individuals, organizations, and events are compounded to create a flow chart that accounts for each step from a shipment or a deal to the delivery to the customer and payment (UNODC, 2011). Money flow is a separate chain of activities that can reveal the links as well. Finally, telephone analysis can illustrate the connections between parties as well as the frequency and nature of each communication. It does not mean that the conversations will be available to the agency.
Nevertheless, their duration, source, and the recipient will be linked to each other to determine the relationships between businesses and individuals (UNODC, 2011). As a result of the computerized analysis, the final scheme should present one with sufficient data about criminal activity.
Apart from the history of organizations and locations and the information collected during surveillance, data gathering about previous successful operations may provide one with a list of possible interventions. The presence of organized crime in the UK is rather significant, meaning that the number of previous activities is also high. According to HM Government (2014), the country treats the threat of drug trafficking as substantial for numerous reasons described further.
Therefore, one can find records about previous activities and use them both as a guide and a precaution. For instance, the participation of the Royal Navy in efforts to seize drug shipments is widely known (Ministry of Defence & Fallon, 2017). In 2017, an operation targeted supplies shipped internationally, and multiple agencies from different countries were involved in stopping the criminal activity (Ministry of Defence & Fallon, 2017). In 2019, a yacht was arrested by the Border Force with a large shipment of cocaine (Dearden, 2019). This operation demonstrates the input of border police and its cooperation with the National Crime Agency (NCA). The success of some recent operations is in the disruption of drug supply and compromising of organized activities.
The Scale of the Threat
Drug trafficking is a dangerous activity in itself; however, it also has many adverse effects on the rate of other illegal activities. Firstly, drugs endanger the health of the UK residents, putting pressure on their mental and physical health. Heroin and cocaine, two of the most widespread substances in trafficking, are highly addictive and life-threatening (Ferri, Ballotta, Carrá, & Dias, 2015). Furthermore, according to Clarke (2016), drug trafficking is a prosperous venture, meaning that it benefits organized crime members and fuels other activities. By dealing with drugs, groups can finance purchasing firearms and human trafficking (National Crime Agency, 2016). The monetary benefits of drugs also can increase corruption and overall violence, notably if an organization establishes a connection with other groups or corrupt law enforcement agents.
Therefore, it is possible to assume that the scale of the threat is substantial, especially if the relations between parties are long-term. Drug supply networks, according to the Cabinet Office and National Security and Intelligence (2010), affect all forces in the UK, resulting in high rates of violent crimes and the exploitation of vulnerable persons. As firearms are often used to protect drug traffickers, the connection between crimes and violence is apparent. Many of the commodities (especially drugs) are supplied from other countries. One can see that the threat reaches international levels, and both the suppliers and local organizations endanger all regions on the route of the drug’s transportation (Ashby & Tompson, 2017). The mentioned above cases show that the region of South America, for instance, is at risk due to the drug sellers’ unethical behavior toward people who make the substances.
Opportunities for Positive Intervention
The data collection methods and analyses described above present a variety of intervention methods for the intelligence agency. It should be noted that one action cannot be used on its own, and the operation requires a set of activities to prove useful. For example, a hypothesis that surveillance will be enough without using databases and previous history of interventions is not logical as it has the weakness of following the steps of ineffective operations that happened before. The activities outlined above include passive and active methods, and their goals are to collect information and establish the criminals’ future plans.
First of all, the agency can use the news opportunity to monitor all crime organizations based in London to determine their potential connections with the south coast and drug trafficking. This initiative may be effective due to its penetration of all possible involved groups. However, it requires the number of resources that the agency does not have because the UK and London, in particular, have many entities that participate in illegal activities.
The next opportunity is to strengthen the security in all ports where the threat of smuggling is possible. Similar to the previous hypothesis, this intervention is massive and cost-ineffective. Moreover, the increased security, as posed by the balloon theory, can deter criminals from using this method of trafficking, choosing to develop other channels instead (Giommoni, Aziani, & Berlusconi, 2017). As a result, the efforts of the NCA will likely be ineffective, and the criminals will stay undetected.
Recommendations
The potential negative effects of the previous hypotheses demonstrate the need to engage in information analysis prior to operation disruption. Therefore, the first recommendation would be to evaluate the available information according to the validity scale and start researching databases to establish the connections between people, events, and organisations. Then, the second step would be to strengthen the finings with surveillance and fill the gaps with the interception of communications. In contrast to the other approaches, a theoretical basis will preserve the agency’s resources and allow the staff to focus on a limited number of suspects.
Next, the event and flow analyses should identify the hot spots on the south coast and the potential supply arrival for an interception. This step is crucial in finding a list of harbors that may require additional security to prevent the crime from occurring. Aft sufficient information has been collected, and the flow analysis has shown all major connections for the suspected organization, active disruption can begin. A thorough examination can provide the agency with an opportunity to catch not only the person smuggling drugs but also the supplier and the persons paying for the shipment into the UK. The next part of the operation deals with increasing security in discovered hot spots, disseminating the information to the Border Force and Navy if required, and continuing to monitor the activity of the suspects to see any changes or developments.
Risk Management Plan
The proposed solution presents some risks to the citizens and the country. The political risk is the mediation of relationships between the countries involved in drug trafficking. Here, the collaboration between national organizations is necessary to ensure that all parties are aware of the illegal activities that happen on their territory. The proposed operation may put people at risk, especially if research takes a long time to yield any conclusive results.
To minimize the outcome of hurting civilians, analyzers have to ensure that all data is appropriately assessed for validity 90. Moreover, the agency has to develop plans to raise UK residents’ awareness of the consequences that drug consumption entails. Public knowledge of illegal substances’ effects on health is a part of anti-drug operations, although they are not directly connected to stopping organized crime (Duijn & Sloot, 2015). Another type of danger is physical – drug traffickers are armed and dangerous for civilians. Adequate measures have to be taken into account, ports under suspicion need to be contacted to protect people from interfering with the operation.
Apart from that, the ethical issue of using surveillance technologies arises. The police using communication interception and spying on potential suspects may breach these individuals’ right to privacy. Therefore, it is vital to treat surveillance technologies as an instrument for creating connections between the perpetrators and give civilians the power to shield themselves from intrusion into their lives (Wright et al., 2015).
Similar to political issues, legal problems are connected to the interception of criminals engaged in international smuggling operations, as countries have different laws regarding the persecution of such persons. Here, the mitigation strategy depends on the nations that become involved in the problem.
Conclusion
Drug trafficking is an illegal activity that poses many threats to international and national security and influences several other illicit activities. The purchase of firearms, human trafficking, corruption, and other activities can be financed with the money gained from drug sales. Thus, organized drug crimes should be treated as a matter of high priority. It is also important to remember that drug smuggling is an issue that affects residents’ health and the wellbeing of people that are engaged in drug production, and criminals can exploit both sides. The proposed plan to react to the information about possible drug supply shipment includes a combination of information collection, analysis, and dissemination. Passive methods are as important as active interventions since they help the agency to establish connections and pinpoint the identity of higher authorities in a criminal organization.
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