Identifying the argument
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons
Synopses & Reviews
Publisher Comments
Saudi Arabia is the most important oil-producing nation in history. The secretive Saudi government repeatedly assures the world that its oil fields are healthy beyond reproach and that they can maintain and even increase output at will to meet skyrocketing global demand.
But what if they can’t?
Twilight in the Desert looks behind the curtain to reveal a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his own three-plus decades of insider experience. More than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia’s troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version.
It’s a provocative and disturbing story, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert examines numerous aspects of Saudi Arabia and its looming oil crisis, including:
- The seventy-year history of modern Saudi Arabia and the truth behind its troubling mix of monarchy, conservative Islam, severe social restrictions, and economic contradictions.
- Why the geological phenomena that created Saudi oil invincibility now threaten to bring it to an end, far sooner than the world has been led to believe.
- A field-by-field assessment of twelve key Saudi oil fields and how verified shortfalls in their production and potential stand sharply at odds with unverifiable Saudi rhetoric.
While Saudi officials promise to increase production from current levels if necessary, Twilight in the Desert examines the history of other major oil fields to determine that Saudi Arabia is overproducing its primary resources and couldn’t possibly ramp up production for long. It calls for long-overdue transparency on the part of the Saudis and all significant global oil producers, along with urgently needed energy data reform and a global energy blueprint for how the world will cope once Saudi oil output has peaked.
Without question, Saudi Arabian oil fields provide the rest of the world with its most plentiful, low-cost oil resource. The question is, how long can they continue to keep these critical pipelines open. Twilight in the Desert answers that question with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
Synopsis
Sparked by personal observations of Saudi oil wells, which led him to suspect that some Saudi fields were in decline, the author has created a compelling case that Saudi Arabia production will soon reach an apex, after which its production will decline. The world will be confronted with an immense and potentially catastrophic oil shortage.
Synopsis
Discusses the fate of the Saudi Arabian oil industry and how it will affect the global economy.
Synopsis
An international bestseller, Twilight in the Desert, has generated a firestorm of media attention from publications such as the Los Angeles Times, Business Week, the Wall Street Journal, and even a cover story in the acclaimed New York Times Magazine. Written in a clear and engaging style, Twilight in the Desert provides an in-depth look at the world oil market and the mismanagement of Saudi oil resources.
This factually-based book is backed by over 200 technical papers, all published over the last 20 years, that individually detail problems with particular Saudi oil wells and fields and collectively demonstrate how the entire Saudi system could stall under the pressure of higher world oil demand. Twilight in the Desert shows that even under the most optimistic scenario, Saudi Arabia may be able to maintain current production rates for several years but will not be able to increase production enough to meet the expected increase in global demand.
Eventually, the reckoning day will come, and the world economy will be confronted with a major shock that will stunt economic growth, increase inflation, and further destabilize the Middle East. In short, Twilight in the Desert is a warning call that the era of cheap oil is over, a development that will profoundly affect the world economy and the lifestyles of individual consumers.
About the Author
Matthew R. Simmons is Chairman of Simmons & Company International, a Houston-based investment bank specializing in the energy industry. He now focuses on research, writing, and speaking engagements. Last year, he gave seventy-five speeches to various groups, including energy industry conferences, university symposiums, and think tanks. Mr. Simmons is a member of the National Petroleum Council, a board member of Resources for the Future, and a Trustee of The Atlantic Council of the United States. He has an MBA from Harvard University.
Discussion
Matthew Simmons is the author of Twilight in the Desert. His considerations and conclusions are based on the analysis of the facts presented in a number of the previous researches conducted in the field of the investigation. His conclusions can be considered as reasonable, with focusing on the syllogism: Syllogism:
Chairman of Simmons & Company International, a Houston-based investment bank specializing in the energy industry, is a specialist in energy and the oil industry.
Matthew Simmons is Chairman of Simmons & Company International.
Therefore, Matthew Simmons is a specialist in the issues of the energy and oil industry.
The author’s argument is logical and depends on the facts. Thus, the book argues that the Saudi oil industry has definite problems caused by the increasing world oil demand, which can lead to the further decline of the country’s industry (Simmons 2006). This argument is based on the investigation of the facts presented in the specialized literature on the issue of the development of the oil industry in Saudi Arabia.
Following the dialectical aspect, the author concentrates on the audience interested in the problems of the oil industry in Saudi Arabia because of dealing with it or performing in the country’s market or a global market of the industry. The rhetorical effect is achieved by focusing on the controversy of the idea presented in the book, which is opposite to the previous general discussions of the problem. This discussion is provocative and disturbing and is based on factual evidence. Moreover, the style or language of the book is clear and understandable for the readers who are interested in the book because it is an international bestseller.
Evidence used in the book is the objective facts with references to the data provided in more than 200 reports about Saudi oil resources and the peculiarities of the production operations in the country. It is also possible to speak about the evidence, based on the previously held conclusions made by the authors of the investigations and analyzed by Simmons. The evidence based on the accepted belief is referred to as discussing the book’s arguments in such reliable newspapers as Los Angeles Times, Business Week, Wall Street Journal, and New York Times Magazine (Twilight in the desert, n.d.).
References
Simmons, M. R. (2006). Twilight in the desert: The coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy. USA: Wiley.
Twilight in the desert: The coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy. (n.d.). Web.