Introduction to the country
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a country in the Arab land occupying an area of 83,600 km2. It exists to the Southeast of the Arabian Peninsula on the Persian Gulf. It also borders Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to the West, South, and North respectively (Knox 23). The UAE is combination of 7 emirates (Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Ras al-Khaimah, Umm al-Qaiwain, and Fujairah) governed by “emir”, which is a hereditary form of governance. The seven emirates are governed by a single president. The UAE’s capital city is situated at Abu Dhabi. It is vital to understand various aspects of the UAE in the context of its economy, socio-cultural aspects, and future prospects in regard to economic developments. The major natives of this country are Muslims. The country possesses large oil reserves rendering it to be among the largest oil exporters (rated 7th) in the world (Shihab 1). It is also an economic hub in the Middle East region. The country lies in the arid tropical region that extends from Asia to North Africa with its climate majorly influenced by the Indian Ocean. It has high temperatures during summer with elevated humidity along its coastal regions. Nonetheless, there is a remarkable climatic disparity amidst the interior deserts, the coastal quarters, and the mountainous regions.
Economy of the UAE
The country enjoys an open economy despite the challenges and other economic downturns experienced globally. Upon the discovery of oil in the region, the country has had rich economic impacts in its territories. It has diversified its economy from oil and gas exports to other sectors including service provision and tourism among others. As at 2011, the country had a GDP of $260.8 billion (Terterov 54). The UAE had a Real GDP growth at over 3 %,and at position 118 worldwide. The country grows its economy through various sectors including agriculture, international trade, service provisions, and mining.
Economic Data of (1991-2000) in Billion USD
Highlights of the Era (1991-2000)
The UAE is a rich country with varying economic provisions in its territories. Following its modest population and large oil reserves, the country developed rapidly from 1991 to 2000. Since the discovery of oil 30 years ago, the country has opened up its market territories so as to trade with the international community for foreign exchange. From the data provided above shows how huge budget surpluses attained by the country have allowed the country to accumulate a considerable wealth during the concerned era. Economically, the UAE registered tremendous improvements in the late 1980s to early 1990s. The oil exports remarkably increased (Yi-chong 198). A surge in oil costs due to Iraq’s attack of Kuwait allowed the UAE to push up its GDP to nearly US$34 billion as at 1990. Additionally, contracts awarded to the country to help in the rebuilding of Kuwait immediately after its liberation also boosted the UAE economy (Shemirani 55). Conversely, the 1991 plunge of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI) affected the UAE economy considerably in that there were critical economic downturns that the country experienced in its efforts to recover from the atrocity.
Economic Data of (2001-2007)
From the Central Bank of the UAE, the Real GDP growth of the UAE is;
Contrastingly, the GDP per capita equals US$ 69,799 (an estimate of 2009). Its GDP (PPP) share of world’s Total equals;
Highlights of the Era (2001-2007)
The 2001-2007 macroeconomic news regarding the UAE is overpowering. The country managed to do well in its various economic sectors. The aspects of oil exportation increased leading to high foreign exchange rates within the country. The country also agreed to peg its currency values to US dollars allowing it to operate efficiently with other countries in regard to foreign exchange rates (Terterov 43). This is a considerable provision when considered critically in diverse contexts. It is evident that macroeconomic sectors in the country were handled with exceptional feat, structure, activities, and judgment for the benefit of the country in the economic contexts. The ear did not consider individual markets but opened up its territories for more business worldwide. Precisely, the era improved remarkably in regard to national, regional, and global economies as the UAE embraced an overwhelming and continuously expanding economy (Shihab 2). Concurrently, the country barely experienced any remarkable economic crisis as evident through its macroeconomic indicators. Conclusively, the figures emerging from calculating the discussed macro-economic variables signify the progress or slump of economy to the people of the concerned country/region.
Economic Data of (2008-2012)
From the Central Bank of the UAE, the Real GDP growth of the UAE is;
Contrastingly, the GDP per capita equals US$ 69,799 (an estimate of 2009). Its GDP (PPP) share of world’s Total equals;
- GDP – composition by sector (2012 estimate)
- Agriculture: 0.7%, Industry: 59.4%, and Services: 39.8%
- The Public debt ( % of GDP) is 12.5, 22.5, 21.3, 6.9%, and 14.6% for the 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively.
Key Performance Indicators as of Date
The performance indicators of the UAE are diverse. The country’s Real GDP is approximated at 3.1 % in 2012. The country’s economy is driven by exemplary performance in both the hydrocarbon as well as non-oil sectors. The ultimate GDP intensification in 2012 is approximated to be below 4.9 % compared to 2011. The macro-economic variables are crucial economic indicators since they show and help in predicting the economic prospects of a given country, region, or the world. Evidently, R-GDP of the UAE indicates the ultimate value of commodities a country produces in a given period after considering the price changes that might have occurred. Precisely, it considers the exact GDP of a country, which is the core economic indicator of a given country as indicated earlier. It is measurable in quarters per a given year. The UAE’s stable and escalating R-GDP rates show its economic prosperity. Conversely, inflation rates indicate the instability and escalation of prices within a given economy. This might affect the economy in numerous sectors since the purchasing rates of commodities will diminish hence compromising the circulation of cash. Additionally, low business rates are evident translating into reduced revenue of a country in a given period. High inflation rates indicate a poor economic progress while low inflation rates depict stability and economic prowess in the period under review. Inflation usually signifies the probability of recession within a country. These are severe economic indicators since they stimulate poor fiscal solidity and compromise economic expansion.
Unemployment rate is crucial in depicting the number of viable human capital in the job market but lack opportunities. Its rate means that the proportion involved is not productive to the country hence not contributing to the economic expansion. It is the labor market that constitutes the service industry with an ultimate contribution to the total GDP of the concerned country. If the majority of potential workers are out of the job market, the economy might slump due to the reduced periodic earnings and minimal value of the ultimate commodities, which constitutes the total GDP. Similarly, interest rates influence the borrowing probabilities of people within a given country. Escalated unemployment rates depict recession, which is an unpleasant economic indicator. High interest rates might affect investments and discourage the borrowing trends. This will reduce the money circulation hence affecting the economy. Conclusively, the figures emerging from calculating the discussed macro-economic variables signify the progress or slump of economy to the people of the UAE.
Comparative Benchmarks (other GCC countries)
It is vital to understand that the cooperative benchmarks within GCC are critical. Concurrently, it is important to note that the UAE has been able to support well-performing commercial banks to higher levels and also reprimand the fraudulent commercial banks. The ability of the central bank to control inflations and deflation within a state is inherent and is based on its management of the loans for commercial banks. For example, the GCB has played a critical role in enhancing financial safety as well as protecting the monetary welfare and interests of the people within the greater GCC. It is also evident that the GCB addresses and adjust the transformations within the GCC’s economy to integrate fiscal policies that strengthen the whole economy (Yi-chong 198). Indeed, the GCB has played a critical role in influencing the operations of the various providers of fiscal services within the GCC.
Comparative Benchmarks outside GCC (China, Iran, Hong Kong Etc.)
In the context of China, Iran, and Hong Kong, the GCB has applied tools and processes appropriate for sustaining the entire Gulf’s economy. Consequently, this has enabled financial institutions in other countries to respond immediately to any monetary predicaments within the area. Indeed, the unification role that the GCB has created in the Gulf Corporation Council remains remarkable. Because it is the government’s organ, the UAE Central Bank remains as an important tool in the manipulation of economic trends in order to support and supervise most economic policies originate from the government.
Central Bank of the UAE
In the UAE’s context, Central Bank refers to the banking institution with exclusive rights to control and lend the government as well as other financial institutions with its money or currency so as to stabilize the economy. It has the capacity to charge various interests on certain loans given to the borrowers (Yi-chong, 12). The dependency of commercial banks and governments on the lending from central bank describes the reason why it is termed as the “lender of last resort”. Ideally, central bank has several functions within the entire economy of the UAE. For example, the Central Bank of the UAE potentiates as the basic personification of a fiscal union allowing the country develop, progress, and traverse with the Arab economies (Fasano 2003, p. 45).
As the regulator of the UAE currency, Central Bank of the UAE has the capacity to lend finances to other commercial banks on demand. Although its elementary role is to offer the country’s financial sources, it also controls subsidized-loan interest rates. Additionally, it is the lender of last resort for an economy’s banking sector. The entity also has pertinent supervisory roles. This function operates to ensure that banks and other monetary institutions never operate in a fraudulent manner. The Central Bank of the UAE is termed to be the bankers’ bank. Precisely, this entity has a role to be the custodian of financial reserve for commercial banks within a specific state. This denotes that central bank holds a similar association with commercial banks within a state just as commercial banks do with their clients (Mosedale 87).
Basically, through this role, the Central Bank of the AE has been useful to commercial banks in several ways. For example, it offers security for their fiscal reserves and offers loans to commercial banks during hard fiscal times in the UAE. Moreover, the bank has occasionally offered these banks with monetary guidance on economic issues. Under this role, it has acted as the clearing house for a range of members’ bank. The important role of the central bank within the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) has been immensely noted. GCB has formed the spring board for attaining fiscal sovereignty and establishing appropriate conditions meant to attain missions of Gulf region’s monetary success (Victor 45).
The central bank majorly acts as the lender of last resort. This occurs during hard fiscal periods for the commercial banks. In perspective, this role has propagated economic sustenance and reduced cases or incidents of breakdown of most commercial banks. In this role, it can be deduced that central bank plays a critical role in the solidification of the entire economy of a nation (Victor 16). These commercial banks are confronted by crisis whenever there are insurmountable pressures within the deposits payments. Thus, central bank has the capacity to resolve their crisis and this normally occurs within distinct ways. It may either rediscount or purchase the state’s securities or offer loans on these short-term securities. These vital roles of the central bank were inherent from the bank of England in the 1800s and have been usefully propagated to other emergent economies of the world.
How the Central Bank Monetary Policy Affects Financial Services Providers
Generally, the UAE has its central bank established to monitor the monetary issues and control other financial bodies such as the commercial banks. Being the uppermost monetary controller within the state, the Central Bank of the UAE has basic influences on the financial service providers through its policies. For example, it has the capacity to regulate the commercial banks and other financial service providers to reduce or increase interests chargeable on loans lent. Basically, the Central Bank of the UAE is the controller of economic stability in the UAE (Schmid 90). This is through its direct control of financial service providers in terms of management of lending rates, the amounts of loans to be given, as well as the duration of payback of these loans. It therefore acts as an indirect cushion to the consumers or the citizens who are major dependents on commercial banks.
The influence of the Central Bank of the UAE in formulation and sustaining necessary fiscal and foreign exchange frameworks is unavoidable. Such policy initiatives help in the stabilization of process as well as payments balance (Schmid 117). This helps in sustaining the economic growth. According to the government regulations or requirements, Central Banks operate to control (through its policies) the appropriate liquidity and stability within banking and monetary sectors. There are also vital policies implemented through the central bank to assist in the development of secure, proper and effective payment systems within the financial service providers in particular states.
Monetary policy provides a fundamental platform enabling the the UAE Central Bank to adequately control their operations. Financial reserves are vital because they form the critical check points or yardstick for the central bank to gauge the extent of the performance of the economy (Victor 23). In critical perspectives, it may be deduced that the reserves form the basis of an economic analysis that is usually done or conducted by the central bank. They assist the central bank in detecting cases of emergent inflation or deflation. Additionally, these reserves are important in assessing the borrowing or lending capacity of the central banks. It is agreeable that monetary policy will still function even if banks did not legally hold any required reserves. The minimum legal channels are set for various banks by the central bank and act as yardsticks for measuring the performance of these banks. They also set the financial bases and act as the spring board for the operation of these banks even in hard financial periods. They dictate lending and borrowing rates and therefore remain critical in influencing monetary policies by the central banks. The observation of the interest rates channels as well as the credit channels is majorly through the legal reserves for the financial services providers. These channels are vital for transmission and help in the expansion of monetary supplies through the central banks.
The UAE Central Bank recently extended substantial financial backing to failing banks, intermediaries, and other financial institutions within the country to avoid further extortion of the economy and recapture the public confidence. Another prominent move evident in this context is the manipulation of the capital reserve requirements. In banks, capital reserve is the available securities, which can be lent to other financial institutions for dissemination to the public. In this regard, the UAE Central Bank tried to regulate its capital reserves to ensure that the money that is in circulation is enough to normalize the situation. Secondly, there was a need to boost people’s power to purchase. Others include reduced savings, reduced direct taxes, positive change in population growth, and excess of illegal money in the economy. All these are factors that increase the amount of money in circulation in the concerned economy.
The influence of the oil and non-oil sector of the UAE economy to the price stability and the long-term economic development of the nation will be measured through the foreign exchange rates and the US dollar stability on which the foreign markets are operated. Although, the UAE is known for its huge exportation of oil, there are other sectors that contribute to its annual GDP. Among the prominent sectors by the year 2010 included the construction and the tourism industry. The UAE is famous for its extra-ordinary sceneries that attract many tourists from the West. The study intends to evaluate these non-oil sectors in their diversity and assess the influence they exercise on price stability. It also determines how these sectors are influenced by the policies adopted by the Central Bank.
Outlook for the future
The UAE has an overwhelming and continuously expanding economy. Additionally, it has viable macroeconomic indicators predictable in the coming 4-5 years from 2012. According to Eurocontrol (2011), the current economy of the UAE is commendable since it recorded GDPs of 8.9% and 6.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively, which are among the world’s highest GDP figures. Concurrently, the country barely experienced any remarkable economic crisis in the past as evident by its macroeconomic indicators (Terterov 56). This is a considerable provision in the context of fiscal growth and economic expansion. Current news on the matter is indicating positive prospects in regard to the UAE’s economic prowess. It is vital to comprehend how the UAE will uphold its economic status so as to remain relevant in the market. Nonetheless, it is still a task to remain buoyant in the current economic hitches as indicated in some sources.
It is evident from various sources that the country has opened up its macroeconomic sectors to accommodate a considerable market share. This is vital in diverse contexts. In order to establish a credible macroeconomic forecast on the UAE, the aspects of Real GDP (R-GDP), Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate, Interest Rates – 5 year fixed mortgage rates, Exchange rate TL:US$ (av), and Exchange rate US$:€ (av) will be discerned considerably (Viewswire 1). Evidently, R-GDP indicates the ultimate value of commodities a country produces in a given period after considering the price changes that might have occurred. Precisely, it considers the exact GDP of a country, which is the core economic indicator of a given country as indicated earlier. The UAE exhibits a considerable GDP forecast in the next five years. Concurrently, the country has had controllable inflation records in the past as evident by its unshaken economy.
Real GDP (R-GDP)
Accordingly, the UAE’s Real GDP forecast spreads considerably with 2017 indicating a forecast of 5.1. This is a considerable provision as shown in the previous table. The country has a stable GDP growth despite the economic challenges noticed in some financial sectors. Macro-economically, the growth rate of R-GDP refers to the percentage increase/decrease of R-GDP with reference to a given base year. The change that occurs to the R-GDP in a given period is transferable into some rates that depict the changes and trends witnessed during the exact period under review. R-GDP considers the aspects of price change (inflation/deflation). Initially, nominal GDP only considers the entire income of a country in the realms of goods and services produced. Conversely, R-GDP considers the probable price changes that might have occurred since the last period of calculations (base year used). The UAE will register remarkable R-GDP growth rates as witnessed by its recent economic growth. When determining the growth rate of the R-GDP, one considers the R-GDP change that occurred during the period of study with reference to the base year. Multiplying the result by 100 will provide the desired percentage change (R-GDP of the base year Minus R-GDP of the year under review divide by R-GDP of the base year times 100).
Inflation Rate
The UAE will register minimal inflation rates if its economy endures its current status. Inflation refers to the percentage change in prices of commodities in a given region/country when compared in two successive terms. It is crucial to note that inflation depicts the increase in prices in relation to the year of reference (base year). Escalation in the price index within a given period signifies the alleged inflation rate. Its determination considers the difference that exists amid the two periods under review, dividing the result by the price index of the base year and then multiplying the result by 100 to attain the percentage rate (Shemirani 23). Precisely, inflation refers to the price increase in consumer commodities with a consequent hike in the living cost. Inflation rates might influence the economy of the country since it deters the purchasing power. The UAE has had controllable inflation records in the past as evident by its unshaken economy.
Unemployment Rate
The UAE is prospected to face minimum unemployment rate in the future. Unemployment rate depicts the percentage of the unemployed individuals within the labor force of a given country. The concerned unemployed must be having the potential to work hence searching for any available opportunity; nonetheless, the country has no job provisions for them. The labor force consists of those individuals in the working age. They are either employed or involved in an active job-search. To determine the unemployment rate, the total population of the labor force and the employed people in a given region/country is considered. Consequently, the difference between the two signifies the number of the unemployed. Dividing this number by the total labor force population and multiplying the result by one hundred will give the unemployment rate/percentage of a country at a given period.
Interest Rates – 5 year fixed mortgage rates
Additionally, a rate charged on given money lent to an entity refers to the interest rate. The fixed mortgage aspect of it refers to the constancy with which the rate persists over a given period (Terterov 35). To determine the interest rate, one considers the difference amid the money lent (principal) and the total sum returnable. Dividing the difference (interest) by the principle and multiplying by one hundred gives the interest rate for the period concerned. In macro economics, the central bank of a country might set given interest rates chargeable for given periods. This determines the interest rates of a given country.
Figurative Predictions
United Arab Emirates economic forecast in regard to GDP (US billion dollars) is 268.122, 279.879, 293.400, 308.406, 324.764, and 343.213 for 2012 to 2017 respectively. These are the baseline figures (minimum prediction). According to Eurocontrol (2011)’s forecast, the UAE might record a remarkable drop in its unemployment rate further as from 2012 to 2016 with predictable minimal figures. Notably, the forecast concerning the macroeconomic indicators is true. This is evident by the recent economic increases and stability witnessed in the UAE. The trend seems to have the capability to continue for years. The government opens up its free market territories and creates economic reforms that will guarantee a continuous increase in macroeconomic exhibitors. The minimum (average) GDP increase of 5.12% is true in the UAE’s context following the recent tremendous GDP amplification. The country has increased her production trends hence indicating the probable increase in her R-GDP at any given period. The UAE’s efforts to expand her economic opportunities and the utilization of her resources will obviously help in establishing and sustaining the predicted R-GDP growth rate.
The negligible redundancy/unemployment rates witnessed in the successive predictions are valid since the country currently creates numerous economic opportunities with an ultimate increase in the number of job prospects. Additionally, the escalating number of foreign investments and other local production opportunities in several economic sectors will obviously increase employment rates during the reviewed periods. The maintained lending rates demonstrate the borrowers’ ability to benefit from the reduced lending charges hence aid the release and circulation of cash into the market (Al 98). These interest rates are predictable and might persist. Central Bank of the UAE has enacted various financial reforms to ensure that the economic increase and the lending rates are coherent. The macro-economic variables are vital economic indicators. They show and help in predicting the economic prospects of a given country, region, or the world. Evidently, R-GDP indicates the ultimate value of commodities a country produces in a given period after considering the price changes that might have occurred. Precisely, it considers the exact GDP of a country, which is the core economic indicator of a given country as indicated earlier. The UAE exhibits a considerable GDP forecast in the future.
Personal Observations
The UAE requires considerable economic structures in order to strengthen its economic growth and prowess. It should maintain its oil, agriculture, and service industries for sustainable economic development. Precisely, economic factor is a key issue required in establishing and operating businesses within a country. With the current economic growth of the UAE, the country should incorporate the global economic provisions in its financial systems for universality. For example, the government is required to consider both current and future interest rates chargeable by its financial institutions. Such interest scale might influence the nature of businesses to be operated within the region. Additionally, it is crucial to consider how the government policies will influence the economic factors in the organizational realms. For economic stability, it is important for the UAE’s central bank to observe the inflation rates, redundancy, and interest rates charged within the country. This might influence the aspects of borrowing capitals for running businesses. Higher interest rates might disfavor an organization hence will affect numerous operations.
Suggestions to improve the economic performance
The UAE can enhance its economic provisions in diverse ways. The recent global financial crisis fronted numerous challenges to various organizations. Consequently, lessons emerged on how organizations react to the ever-changing economic environment. Conventionally, it is important for the UAE to be focused, futuristic, and always enact long-term approaches to critical economic issues. It should react to economic hitches instantaneously as it adjusts its oil, agriculture, and service industries considerably (Viewswire 1). Numerous organizations in the UAE should have long-term or visionary measures meant to curb emerging economic challenges. This is a considerable factor when scrutinized critically in the UAE’s context. While enhancing its economic sectors, political, social, legal, technological, and fiscal/economical factors should be stabilized and observed with vision.
Conclusion
The UAE is a country in the Arab land occupying an area of 83,600 km2. It exists to the Southeast of the Arabian Peninsula on the Persian Gulf and borders Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to the West, South, and North respectively. The UAE is combination of 7 governed by “emir”, which is a hereditary form of governance. The seven emirates are governed by a single president. The country enjoys an open economy despite the challenges and other economic downturns experienced globally. Upon the discovery of oil in the region, the country has had rich economic impacts in its territories. It has diversified its economy from oil and gas exports to other sectors including service provision and tourism among others.
The country grows its economy through various sectors including agriculture, international trade, service provisions, and mining. The country possesses large oil reserves rendering it to be among the largest oil exporters (rated 7th) in the world. It is also an economic hub in the Middle East region. The country lies in the arid tropical region that extends from Asia to North Africa with its climate majorly influenced by the Indian Ocean. It has high temperatures during summer with elevated humidity along its coastal regions. The UAE is a rich country with varying economic provisions in its territories. Following its modest population and large oil reserves, the country developed rapidly from 1991 to 2000. Since the discovery of oil 30 years ago, the country has opened up its market territories so as to trade with the international community for foreign exchange and economic prowess.
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