Psychology and deterrence reveal the nature of power, response, and aggression from the individual level to international arenas. In his seminal work, How Statesmen Think, Jervis (2017) posited that “deterrence depends on perceptions” (p. 191). Deterrence efforts can produce emotional effects detrimental to its sustenance and original purpose. Jervis (2017) proceeds to examine how perception plays out in security and foreign policy, including inadvertent war and the impact of national identities. For instance, psychology and deterrence offer historical case studies on World War I, the Arab-Israel conflict, and most recently, the Russian-Ukrainian war. As an aspect of morality, deterrence reveals the hidden strategies in foreign policy. People and nations often intervene in others’ conflicts as third parties. However, counterpart intervention or promises often fail due to misinterpretation.
Deterrence is more than a psychological mechanism on the prospect of practices, processes, and situations that an individual relies on. However, the notion does minimal justice to the outcome of the whole process, more precisely, perception. Perception overlaps with psychological processes in deterrence. Jervis (2017) further questions the psychological understanding of deterrence. In turn, perception is responsible for different biases affecting judgment and decision-making. Therefore, perception emerges as a consequence of one’s actions and interpretation of the given situation. Further, when triggered, perception affects cognitive processes and actions more extensively than often assumed. In tandem, perception affects foreign and domestic politics, producing unintended effects by the original deterrent efforts.
Overall, if one’s behavior influences another, it is perceived, confirming, that deterrence depends on perception. The actor’s perception often diverges from objective reality and other actors’ perceptions. Subsequently, the difference systematically and randomly leads to deterrence. In consequence, the psychological underpinning of compliance with the law has an interest in perceptual deterrence. In addition, perceptual deterrence addresses the actual offending behavior influenced by the related consequences grounded by personal experiences and objective conditions. Therefore, understanding the way the opposition views the world and involved perception patterns will help interpret deterrence policies.
Reference
Jervis, R. (2017). The psychology of international politics. Princeton University Press.