Human beings have little control over natural disasters; they can hardly prevent natural disasters occurrences. However certain human activities trigger the occurrence of natural disasters.
When natural disasters strike, they are destructive; in areas that are highly prone to occurrence of natural disasters, policy makers should enact risk management policies to ensure in proper natural disaster prediction and management.
The United State is prone to number of natural disasters that include earth quakes, hurricanes, tornados, blizzards (Winter Storm), floods, and Disease Epidemics (Barnes 2-12). This paper identifies a probable natural disaster likely to strike Indiana University Board (IUB); the natural disaster to be discussed is hurricane.
Identification and selection of Hurricane
The natural disaster likely to affect Indiana University Board (IUB) is a hurricane. In the fast changing environmental conditions, triggered by human activities and natural occurrences, there are high chances that IUB will suffer a hurricane.
Hurricanes are strong destructive winds which originate from large water bodies like sea or ocean; when the winds reach the land surface near to the water body, the speed they reach with becomes destructive.
According to National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), areas near large water bodies are more vulnerable to hurricanes, excessive rain and generally bad weather conditions than those in far land masses.
The location of Indiana University Board (IUB) is near a water body thus including it to among those areas that are prone to hurricanes. According to Monroe County Sheriff‘s Office, 2007, there are 50 chances the county will experience a hurricane in the next seven years (National Climatic Data Center).
History of Monroe County , the location of the college, shows that there has been hurricane attacks in the region, in 1989, there was a hurricane called Hurricane Hugo which was followed by yet another one three years later called Hurricane Andrew.
Hurricane Hugo remains in history as the largest and most destructive hurricane to have occurred in the region having a speed of 139 miles per hour and caused 23 deaths. Hurricanes can only be predicted four days before their occurrence thus the county and the company need to be vigilant to avoid last minute rush.
Vulnerability Factors
IUB has numerous structures that are controlled by people and students that in the event a hurricane attack, the facility will suffer huge losses.
The structures at risk include the buildings, facilities like departments, lecture halls, servant and lecturer premises, student’s hostels, and sporting structures. other than the structures , which can be rebuild after an attack, there are people, who are in the facility at the time of the attack, they range from tutors, students, other non teaching staffs, and people contracted to carry out certain projects within the university.
The destruction can be massive. in the event there is a strike the economic environment of the university and the people living and depending with the facility for live hood would be massive, the structures costs high amounts of money thus constructing them afresh will cost the facility more, the students will lack continuity in their education which is a cost by its self, and researches underway that might have taken a long period might be destroyed leading to waste of much money (Monroe County Sheriff‘s Office).
Hurricane Risk Assessment at IUB
To assess the eventuality of an occurrence of a natural disaster, policy makers should access the geological and/or hydro-meteorological hazards to which a particular country or region is exposed; the location of Monroe County is located opposite to a water body thus the likelihood of a hurricane attack is high.
The vulnerability of the coastal areas increases the probabilistic occurrence of hurricanes; in these events it requires economic planning to militate against large losses likely to occur.
To access the risk that certain area will be prone to a disaster, there need to consider historical, scientific, and known vulnerability and make decisions with the parameters in mind. Scientific interventions and researchers have shown that there are certain typical paths and seasons which hurricanes attacks are more expected; with the knowledge, it is important to address the matter considering the recorded statistics and continue undertaking research and evaluations.
When a hurricane has been predicted to occur, there should be effective policies implemented to get remedy to local hazards and address known vulnerabilities.
To assess the risk of hurricane at IUB the best method to use is probabilistic hurricane event model. Under the model the vulnerability of a certain town is accessed using historical occurrences and the physical situation of the area.
The general assumption is that those areas that have had past experience with hurricanes are still more likely to experience them in the future. On the other hand those areas that have had strong winds, they are next to water bodies, and there are no natural or artificial structures to prevent the effect of a strong wind.
The larger Florida state has had 488 tropical or subtropical cyclones, of which since 1851 only eighteen hurricane seasons have passed without being detected; they have made varying destructions to manmade and natural resources.
Before 1990, it is estimated that there have been a total of 6,504 fatalities and the estimated monetary loss from hurricane attacks has been estimated at $90 million. In the stated period, the first hurricane attack to have been recorded was in 1523 when two ships and their crews were lost along the Western Coastline; approximately 109 ships and boats have been driven ashore, damaged, or wrecked due to storm.
Between the period between 1900 and 1949, there were a total of 108 tropical cyclones with an estimated damage of $4 Billion as per 2008 hurricane loss estimate.
In the near past, there have been approximately 58 tropical or subtropical cyclones; the hurricanes are known to have created a damage of approximately $64 Billion.
Between year 2003 and 2005, there were a total of eight cyclones in the United States. The situation of Monroe and the vulnerability of its location to hurricanes should be the major focus that the county’s policy makers should have in mind, they should enact measures to weight and predict the occurrence of a hurricane and make such policies that reduce its effect.
Conclusion
Probabilistic hurricane-event model suggests that Monroe County, which houses Indiana University Board, is at a high risk of hurricane attack; the model supports the arguments using historical hurricane occurrences in the city and scientific geological researches.
The closeness to a large water body and occasional strong winds from the water bodies makes the county vulnerable to hurricane attacks. According to Monroe County Sheriff‘s Office, 2007, there are 50 chances that the county will experience a hurricane attack in the next seven years; this calls for effective risk assessment and management policy.
Works Cited
Barnes, Jay. Florida’s Hurricane History. New York: Chapel Hill Press, 2007. Print.
Monroe County Sheriff‘s Office. Monroe Hurricanes. NOAA Satellite and Information Service. 01-Mar. 2007. Web.
National Climatic Data Center. Latest Hurricane Map. NOAA Satellite and Information Service. 01 Mar. 2011. Web.
National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Warming Trend for Plains Region into the Weekend. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s. 10 Nov. 2011. Web.