Introduction
America has enjoyed more privilege than any other country. The United States is more significant than any other country. The current question is where the United States is heading and, if possible, why it is headed there. Currently, across the globe, people are keen on trying to find out whether or not the United States is on its way up or merely holding its own or on its way down.
Question is being asked what has generated the current debate in the years after the Second World War by a generation of writers impressed by a new kind on international block. With its vast military machine, enormous material resources, and ideological self-confidence, the United States is like no other power on Earth.
It could not get its own way. There were always the obvious problems of the USSR and China, the two most evident obstacles standing in its path. In a competitive struggle for supremacy between USSR and the USA, Americ) went on to build a new global order because of a threat by international communism. The USA managed to unite its former enemies, mobilize its own people, contain the foreign policy ambitions of others, and pump – prime the larger world economy with spending on the military.
The Pax American seemed to serve the narrower the US interest, but it led to the disbursement of mass public goods that appeared to help many other nations too.
Hence, for 20 years, what was good for the USA was good for the rest of the world1. Paul Kennedy pointed out that the American era was likely to be over, and the sooner the US adjusted to that fact, the better, he believed, the United States had no alternative but to pull in its horns2.
The Threats to American Global Powers
Firstly, even though American enjoys wide global powers, it is however faced with several threats.
Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile Proliferation
This is the major nuclear power. Missile proliferation, particularly with regard to nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and missile delivery systems, constitutes a direct threat to the United States’ interests worldwide. Most states see the acquisition of these capabilities as vital to countering United States conventional war sighting superiority and to providing an unparallel measure of power, respect, and relevant determent value within a regional context. Presently a good number of states are actively engaged in the pursuit of weapons of most destruction.
Since nuclear technology is difficult and expensive to achieve, counter-proliferation efforts are not perfect, and one or more proliferation efforts are not perfect, and one or more of the determined rogue states are likely to develop or acquire nuclear weapons over the next decade. One complicated issue is the security of weapons-usable material within the former Soviet Union. Although the Russians are working in good faith to protect such material and related capabilities, the potential for loss of control will remain with us into the foreseeable future, in part because of the unstable conditions in Russia.
Chemical and biological agents are likely to be more proliferated. Chemical weapons are easiest to develop, deploy and hide and the technology and materials to produce relatively sophisticated weapons are readily available, often as dual-use items in the commercials world.
Ballistic and cruise missiles proliferation presented one of the greatest emerging threats to US regional interests and deployed forces. The SCUD and UAV-like cruise missile variants and the rations which field them will obviously not have technical sophistication or forgetting support that is available to whole advanced military powers. These missiles will have sufficient range, accuracy, and payloads to deliver weapons of mass destruction to the variety of an intended target like large personnel and equipment concentrations, airfields, seaports, etc., the possession of these weapons by adversaries complicates us as allied planning, decision making, and operations.
Rejection of Western Union
The abrupt end of the Cold War, the rapid spread of western values, ideals, and institutions, as well as dramatic personal, societal, and global changes underway as a result of the global village phenomenon and broad technology proliferation, are changing fundamental concepts beliefs and allegiances in many areas of the world. Those people groups or governments which resent the policies of the United States attempt to undermine US and western influence and interests.
Terrorism
Terrorism remains an international problem. This phenomenon is driven by continued ethnic, religious, nationalist, separatist, political, and economic motivations. The major worrying trend is the rise of terrorist groups that are more multinational in the scale of operation and less responsive to domestic or external influences. The Middle East-based terrorism supported by individual wealthy people as well as organizations poses a major threat to the United States. The more worrying aspect is that these terrorist outfits are using sophisticated weapons and equipment as well as modern communication technology. The September 11 incident in the United States is a clear indication of how terrorism is a major threat to the power supremacy of the United States.
The Reasons for the Threats to American Global Powers to Be Successful
The threats enumerated above are likely to be successful because of a number of reasons.
Coalition of Terrorist Groups
Initially, al-Qaeda was the only capable terrorist outfit that was known to be anti-America. In the recent past, a good number of these terrorist groups, namely, the Mujahideen, Hamas, etc., have risen up to form a coalition with Al-Qaeda in mainly targeting America and its citizens both within America and outside America. The September 11 bombing and Twin Bombings of American Embassies in Nairobi on August 7, 1998, outrightly explain how these terrorist outfits are targeting America. These possess a great threat to America. In one way or the other, these groups are using the latest technology and tactics in attacking America. This is likely to hinder the United States in its development as it will have to concentrate on the fight against terror.
High Capacity of Skills and Technology in Emerging Superpowers
The emerging superpowers, namely China, India, Russia, and the European Union, have adopted high capacity skills and technology. Previously, the United States commanded the monopoly of high skills and technology. Currently, China and India have advanced their technology, competing with America. This poses a major threat to the United States. This advancement of technology has been practical. In terms of nuclear technology, these states are competing with America, India, and Pakistan have successfully conducted their nuclear tests. This alone proves the fact that America does no longer enjoys this type of technology alone. On the other hand, China has advanced technology in both nuclear and missile capacity at par with America.
Coalition of Anti-American States
From time to time, the number of anti-America states is growing. This is against the principles of superpower statehood. A superpower must command respect and command of other nations. America’s blatant attack on Iraq and Afghanistan has earned it more enemies than friends. The two wars have been condemned far and wide. The rising superpowers have taken advantage of this by courting pro-American and anti-American friends to their side. In the latest development, China has moved in to command the cooperation of Africa nations. Since last year, China started hosting African Heads of states day in order to lure them to her (China) side. This complicates the matter as America is likely to lose most of its trusted friends to China and other emergency superpowers.
Here it can be added that the United States’ foreign policy is at its weakest. This is because America has been known to have a soft landing on its friends by giving out absolute support. On the other hand, America has had a hard instance on its foes like Cuba, Zimbabwe, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. A good example being President George Bush’s refusal not to attack Iraq. Most counties, even allies of the United States, condemned the attack. Out of the five great nations, namely China, Great Britain, Russia, France, and the United States, it had the blessing and support of only one, Great Britain.
Strong Military Personnel
For years the United States has been known to command good military personnel and equipment. Lately, China has developed a strong and modern military base. China has over 2 million personnel in the Army service. In terms of technology military-wise, China is advanced given the fact that it started its nuclear power far back in 1955. It can be said that China is not a member of major protocols signed to monitor the establishment of nuclear weapons. The military training provided by China is intensive and adequate as 15% of the Chinese budget goes to the military.
Decline of the US Dollar and Rise of Other Currencies like Euro, Sterling Pound, Yuan, and Canadian Dollar
The United States of America’s dollar has been the globally accepted medium of exchange for a long time. However, in the recent past, this currency is losing ground to other currencies. Presently, the rate of exchange of the dollar is less than the Euro, Sterling pound. The Chinese Yuan and Canadian dollar are almost equal to the dollar, questioning the capacity of the United States as a global superpower. This situation is disadvantageous to the American economy since it will lead America to have a lot of debts.
Global Trade
Another major threat of America as a superpower is its decline command of global trade. As this is a threat to America, it has been a success to other emerging superpowers like China and India. The Chinese and Indian products have commanded ready market both locally and internationally. This is so by the fact that products of goods. Produced by these two great nations are cheap and affordable. Most countries in the Asia and products have adopted these Chinese goods and products. This has been a major setback to America since its products are not commanding a good share of the international market.
The Next World Order
The next World Order or Superpower will be better than the current superpower. There is a lot of debate about who will be the next superpower, China, India, Russia, or the European Union. Different views have been expressed about this. However, China commands a high edge of becoming a global superpower. Therefore the question is how the next superpower will look like. A dictator of new globalized world order?
Looking at China as the prospected world order, it represents the antithesis of globalization in the sense that the Chinese culture places a large emphasis on traditions and preservation of culture. The country’s burgeoning population and vast land resources mean that it has the ingredients of becoming a superpower.
The economic future of China is ensured. The country’s environmental future, however, is in great peril. It relies heavily on material and energy-intensive production processors that have depleted the country’s natural resources and increased environmental pollution. Without sustainable growth, China’s reign as a superpower could be ephemeral.
China has no trouble generating income. It has become more and more skilled at attracting foreign investment. Foreign companies are finding a convenient place for their huge market potential.
However, China also possesses some unique challenges in its road map to becoming a superpower. China remains much closed and has proven quite skilled in keeping out watchdog groups like Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and even the United Nations. This presents a challenge to China in terms of international business since more and more western companies are recognizing the fact that their customers want to go in for environmentally and socially correct products.
The Chinese culture and language are very complex for most westerners. China’s hope for overcoming these cultural hurdles is perhaps the fact that the Chinese Diaspora extends to many corners of the world. However, Chinese emigrants have established China towns all over the world, and they can serve as bridges for conducting business.
Some estimates show that the population of China could reach 1.5 billion by 2030. Even now, China’s large population means that the country is able to remain highly insulated from free-market pressure. The piracy of property is rampant in China; even most countries in the world have banned it.
For better or worse, China will become a superpower because it will have the human capital and the natural resources to do so. The challenge for China’s political and business leaders will be to ensure that the country implements the social structures and environmental protection measures necessary to create sustainable growth.
Many countries are recognizing the potential value in developing alliances with China. Lately, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Hellen Clark and President Hu Jintao of China unveiled the first steps towards a bilateral free trade deal between the two countries.
Ultimately, the interaction between China and Western countries is contributing to a dynamic economic system, a more open political system, and constructive membership in the international system. The interaction with and influence of Western countries might provide exactly the catalyst. China needs in order to forge a sustainable path to becoming the next superpower. China has the potential to transform itself, Asia, and the rest of the world.
Factors Leading to the Decline of America as a Superpower
There are several critical factors that have led to the decline of America as a superpower. These can be enumerated as follows:
Not even two decades behind us, we are experiencing the rise of a multipolar world in which new powers are challenging different aspects of American supremacy. Russia and China are at the forefront, with regional powers Venezuela and Iran forming the second rank.
The other thing that is showing the decline of the USA is the drastic loss of the Vietnam War in the 1970s. Further, there is a declining competitive base and rising deficits. These issues have had a great impact on the global order, which has had stability all of a long.3 The United States, which at one particular time enjoyed hegemonic stability, is fading away from its hegemonic power. It has to accept reality and adjust itself to what other nations have compelled it to do. The age of Pax Americana is over. The United States is becoming an ordinary country4.
Further, the decline of the US has been precipitated by the successful attack of the US on September 11. President Bush has led the United States down to its decline. He was elected on a foreign policy platform. His decision to involve America in two major wars in
Iraq and Afghanistan is a controversial strategy. Also has decisions to expand America’s interest across the world is a flop since most of these interests have the world been put where the mood of America is sour.
How and why this has happened so soon is the Bush administration’s debacle in Iraq, which is certainly a major factor in this transformation. The Iraq fiasco has demonstrated the striking limitations of power for the globe’s highest-tech, most destructive military machine. In Iraq, Brent Scowcroft, national security advisor to two US Presidents, conceded in a recent op-ed that they are being wrestled to a draw by opponents who are not even an organized state adversary.
The invasion and subsequent disastrous occupation of Iraq and mismanaged military campaign in Afghanistan have crippled the credibility of the United States. The Scandals of Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and Guantanamo Bay in Cuba with the murder of Iraq Civilians in Haditha has terminated the image of the USA as a superpower.
Another critical factor that has made the USA decline as a world order is a current transformation in international affairs. These include the lightening market in oil and natural gas, which has enhanced the power of hydrocarbon-rich nations as never before; the rapid economic expansion of the mega nations China and India; the transformation of China into the globe’s leading manufacturing base and end of an Anglo-American duopoly in international television news.
Americans’ failure in Iraq is a defeat of the “unipolar – model” of world order. Iraq proves that the superpower model power cannot provide stability, security, or guarantee of human rights that are essential for garnering the support of the 6 billion people in the world. Resistance to the imperial order is on the rise everywhere.
The Bush administration’s extra-legal actions have galvanized the majority of people against the United States. America has become a threat to the very human rights and civil liberties with which it used to be identified. The world at large has rejected the current model of administration in the USA. This shows declining support for USA policies everywhere in the world.
Finally, the American economy has been on the decline, worse than it has ever been. China and India are vastly growing in that they are almost surpassing America in the next few years to come. In 2005-06 it was quoted that America was the biggest debtor of the United Nations organization. This shows that its economy is on the decline, which questions its credibility as a superpower.
Bibliography
- Joseph Nye.”The Decline of America’s Soft power”.
- Walter Lippmann. “Public Opinion” 1992.
Footnotes
- Hamish Hamilton Pax Americana; London: (1967).
- For a good discussion of hegemonic stability theory and international political economy London: Rutledge, 1998.
- Ibid.
- Paul Kennedy; The rise and fall of great nations economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000s London. Harper Collins, 1998.