Future predictions of international geopolitical situation involve a degree of uncertainty for which no known predictive models exist. Despite this uncertainty, no one can deny that the nature of present and future conflicts is shifting significantly towards sub-conventional, unconventional and asymmetric spectrums of conflict. Robert Kaplan’s seminal work on the “Coming Anarchy” very pithily captures the essentials of these dangers. Extracts from FM-7-100 state that “nations will continue to field armed forces and use these forces as tools to pursue national interests (US Army Command and General Staff College 1)” and the US armed forces are a vital component in ensuring this fundamental national interest. Hence, this essay examines the changing geopolitical environment and its impact on US military affairs.
Kaplan theorizes that criminal anarchy as typified by West Africa has emerged as a real strategic danger that is likely to spread over much of the globe. “Disease, overpopulation, unprovoked crimes, scarcity of resources, refugee migration and increasing erosion of nation states and international borders, private armies and drug cartels (Kaplan 45)” are being mirrored by similar patterns across the globe. The growing power of the Colombian and Mexican drug cartels and migration problems have forced unprecedented border protection measures along the US-Mexican border. However, these measures have had a minimal impact on decreasing the flow of people. Therefore, a spread of West Africa type ‘anarchy’ inside Continental United States is a distinct possibility. Despite the ‘Global War on Terror,’ Islamic fundamentalism continues to thrive. Involvement in Iraq (phased withdrawal notwithstanding) and a refocus on Afghanistan-Pakistan will see the US military stretched to its limits in the coming decades. The dangers of a nuclear armed Iran persist and the US will have to cater for the rise of China as a competing superpower. Thus while the spectrum of conflict tips towards the sub conventional; the traditional paradigms of conflict will continue to be relevant owing to the emergence of new powers in the Asia-Pacific region.
These Geopolitical imperatives, on ground would mean increased tour of duties and overseas deployments for the US Armed forces personnel. Preponderance of asymmetric warfare will require the rank and file of the US Armed forces to be trained and geared up to fight insurgencies and militancy. Increased ‘close contact’ operations in foreign locales will require additional social, cultural and language skills. Incessant deployments in asymmetric theatres will effect family life and increase psychological pressures. Preparing for the ‘Long War’ would task all services, soldiers and officers alike at multiple levels of skill sets and coping mechanisms. Closer home, the ‘anarchy’ scenario would force the USCG, the National Guard as also law enforcement agencies to train in unconventional warfare and tactics.
Overall, the changed geopolitical situation in which occurrence of anarchy and unconventional warfare is likely to increase, will in turn increase the demands on the uniformed personnel that would include upgrading war fighting capability, social and language skills as also better psychological coping mechanisms to deal with the effects of long separation and incessant tempo of operations.
Works Cited
Kaplan, Robert. “The Coming Anarchy.” The Atlantic Monthly (1994): 44-76.
US Army Command and General Staff College. FM 7-100 Opposing Force Doctrinal Framework and Strategy. n.d.