China is considered to be a country with rather impressive economic positions in comparison to the positions of other countries in the 21st century. The extraordinary economic and political growth and active diplomacy are the two factors that have changed East Asia considerably within a short period of time.
Some people define Chinese influence and opportunities as one of the greatest threats to international peace since there is some fears that the rise of China, as a global economic giant, could lead to a number of international conflicts. The main question is whether China would be a part of the existing power or whether it will be neglected by a variety of countries and the offered order will be overthrown soon.
For example, the era of American power is characterized by stable political and economic situation and control over the other developing states (Layne 2008, p.13). Still, the western control and initiative may be soon replaced by the order from the East.
As China gains more power, there is a thought that China may exercise its growing influence in reshaping the institutions and rules that govern the international system for its own benefit if not that of the others (Ikenberry 2008, p.1). The declining supremacy will begin viewing China as a threat to international peace. Either way, these developments are likely to result in conflict, distrust, or tension that is defined as the main attributes associated with power transition (Ikenberry, 2008, p.1).
The rise of China, especially after World War II and the fall of the super power both political and economical, will pose a drama of the century. This is why it is very important to understand and investigate the validity of the claim by the realist that the rise of China will inevitably lead to international conflict and order.
Realists define laws of nature as an inescapable thing due to the continuous struggles for survival and power instead of progressive forces that could lead to peace and prosperity (Friedberg 2005, p.17). This creates a vicious cycle whereby the powerful and less powerful representatives will be competing at the expense of the developing nations to gain more power.
Such activities may lead to international anarchy since no country will be controlling international peace at this stage as international rules and regulations are already set and regarded as obsolete. The economic growth of China and its inclusivity to developments in developing countries, especially in Africa, acts as a surrogate in seeking national power.
Contrary to other developing countries’ economies, Chinese economy expands and demonstrates its enormous potential and mass production. This has defined it as a country with fast growing economy and with the capability to surpass the U.S by 2015. Its technological prowess, high level of productivity and increased per capita income in economy has made it possible for China to invest highly in sophisticated weapons. And the creation of a strong military system would eventually lead to international conflict.
For instance, China has been accused of supplying weapons to Somalia, Congo, and Southern Sudan; it has been perceived as defiance to the international order of maintaining peace and order in the whole world. From the realist point of view, China has already started displaying a kind of superpower that cares about its economic growth at the expense of other nations of the third economies.
History always has the capacity to repeat itself in many ways. It has been noted that rising powers have always “tended to be trouble makers, at least insofar as their more established counterparts in the international system are concerned” (Friedberg 2005, p.18).
Regardless of the type of the power regime, the nation ends up as a trouble-maker and so China would be. The same happened to the democratic USA the autocratic Germany as it rose to superpower. There has been a trend of the rising power based on external expansion. For instance, the USA, the former Soviet Union, France, Britain, Japan, and Germany have been characterized as countries with strong economic development and industrialization.
Due to the fact that capability of a particular state may considerably grow within a short period of time, the leaders of such state should think about the approaches by means of which their interests may be defined in a more liberal way. They also tend to seek more influence over its neighbours (Friedberg 2005, p.19).
It is clear from history that rising powers tend to seek more than securing their frontiers as well as reaching out far beyond their capacity, acquiring measures of ensuring markets accessibility, transportation routes, and markets. It also seeks to offer protection for far away citizens in order to defend their allies and foreign friends through the promulgation of their values and keep what they regard as legitimate issues, based on regional and world affairs.
As a nation rises, it tends to incorporate security more and its welfare goals are compared to powerless and less wealthy states. This is the likely path that China would follow as it rises to power economically and politically.
In fact, rising powers try to do everything possible in order to assert themselves in a proper way: territorial boundaries may be considerably changed, some international arrangements can be easily neglected, and even the already gained prestige can be forgotten for some time (Friedberg 2005, p.20).
For instance, Germany had to cause conflicts with the already existing countries, which had already been enjoyed the international system they had established. Realists view the same for China; still, such attitude has been discriminated and left out in many internationally established systems like not being a member of the G8 nations and excluded from many treaties that relate to international peace.
The collision that emerges between the mounting interests of rising power and the ones in existence can be resolved in different ways, but the appeared disputes are rarely characterized by democratic or peaceful results. The end is usually connected to the international conflict. Upon realizing the threat posed by rising powers like China, the dominant powers tend to apply force as a way of destroying the rising power before it gains the chance of becoming a full potential.
The belligerents that already established powers may appease the rising powers in order to satisfy their ambitions and demands in a more democratic and peaceful manner. But, from a pure historical point of view, such idea was always failed as the rising powers could not satisfy the demands of these nations.
This is what happened to Germany during the era of Adolf Hitler, under the circumstances in which many Jews were murdered during the holocaust as it sought power to quench its rising demands. In a more diverse perspective, when the demands are less extensive, the dominant powers may be reluctant in complying with these concessions. This may fuel resentments and frustrations of the rising powers.
Therefore, based on these historical arguments, China is less likely as a rising power to behave in a different manner other than following its predecessors. Like any rising power, China would be inclined to becoming a ‘hegemony’ by itself (Mearsheimer 2005, p.2). According to Toft (2005, p.384), the ultimate aim of a rising nation is to maximize its powers until it becomes a hegemony, where hegemony implies that a nation has total control and domination over the international systems.
China is more likely to be assertive as it becomes the dominating power in East Asia and tries to displace the existing power (Mearsheimer 2005, p.2). This may lead to conflict with its neighbours like Taiwan or Hong Kong. War is the major tool that can be used to gain power over others if the costs are less compared to the benefits it would gain (Toft 2005, p. 385).
The bloodletting strategies are seen as the only way China may use over those, who defy to its demands as a way of setting international order. So far, China has financed most of the wars in the developing nations and got acquired power and economic prowess in terms of raw materials like minerals in return.
This can be supported by the fact that China is emerging as both a military and economic rival of the US (Ikenberry 2008, p.2). War can be traced back in the 1840s, during the “century of humiliation”, when it expelled foreign powers after the end of World War II (Friedberg 2005, p. 20). The imagination of foreigners on their territory has definitely left China with fear of having history repeated itself on their land.
The realist theorists argue that, before the fall of China, it was the predominantly the economic and political power of East Asia. To repose its fallen power and lost glory, China uses its power over the existing powers. As China comes into terms with its growing power, it seeks models that would be used as strategies of reclaiming its era of dominance in East Asia.
This would cause conflict with the USA that dominates East Asia as the two states have different ideologies and interests. As seen earlier, each raising power seeks to gain hegemony in the area it operates with. This will set a stage for competition and disharmony between the two states as each seeks to gain dominance over the region and over each other.
China, Russia and India are the main figures that contribute the development of competition for natural resources and require the economic growth that will soon rise. The competition is witnessed has the capacity of causing international conflicts (Pravda.ru 2008).
The transfer of wealth to an emerging power, especially one from the East, will be faced many challenges and risks as the transition will be historic. The rivalries that will be witnessed will be revolving around aspects like technological innovations, military power, investments, and the access to natural resources, demographics, and international trade (Pravda.ru 2008).
As the impressive economic growth of China continues, more investments in the manufacturing industry are required to make it larger pollution contributor. International systems set on pollution and, as a way of safeguarding the international systems, a coalition between the existing dominant powers will consequently engage in military actions in order to prevent what happens at the moment.
As China economic growth continues, China and the USA cannot stop thinking about the possible security competition (Mearsheimer 2005, p.1). The required activities may become the main factors that can easily lead to war, where such countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and, what is more important, Russia, can support China.
The idea that anarchy rules and no state is higher than other will definitely lead to chaos. The countries that contain offensive military capabilities will understand that all nations are able to defend their interests and fight against each other (Mearsheimer 2005, p.1). In such situation, no nation really knows the intentions of the opponents, and the only way to survive is to get power by any applicable means.
To achieve such goal, China should become the country that is able to maximize the gap that is observed between its neighbours. As a way of getting regional hegemony and driving the U.S from the East, China will be involved into war. For obvious reasons, China will need to have weaker neighbours the same way America operates in the West. The same way the USA sees foreign military forces as a threat to the American security (Mearsheimer 2005, p.3), this is why the same logic would be applicable to China.
As China attempts to dominate East Asia, the USA tries to weaken it (Mearsheimer 2005, p.3). It will lead to conflict between the two states because one tries to gain power and the other tries to retain hegemony. China has always wanted to control Taiwan which acts as the sea lanes to the East Asian nations.
America and Japan would not allow this happens. Taiwan would not allow China take control over its nation as well; therefore it would collaborate with Japan and America that would infuriate China (Mearsheimer, 2005, p.4). This activity would lead to security competition that would eventually lead to international conflicts.
In general, the economic rise of China may lead to international conflicts for many reasons. First, the desire to gain additional power may not be supported by the countries like the USA or Russia that do not want to lose the already gained economic positions. However, there is also hop that Chinese rise may be characterized by peaceful outcomes.
For example, China shows that it is possible to achieve peaceful treaties with nations like EU, India, and Russia (Xia 2006) to meet some personal goals. The conditions under which international trade with its neighbour is developed are improved and considered as ‘good neighbour policy’. Still, cooperation with the USA that aims at avoiding any confrontation may lead to international conflicts. It is a conservative power and no intentions are observed o upset the status quo (Xia 2006).
Taking into consideration the facts, which are evident, it is possible to say that China is one of the countries those rise is possible and, what is more important, characterized by unpredictable outcomes. Security competition in East Asia to gain hegemony has the likelihood of leading to conflicts as no ‘hegemonic’ state is in need of control.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the realists argument of international conflicts rising from the rise of China is valid and based on the historic events and paths that have been observed during the rise of American and Russian economies in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Reference List
Friedberg, A.L. 2005. ‘The future of U.S.-China relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?’ International Security, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 7–45.
Ikenberry, G.J. 2008. The Rise of China and the Future of the West; Can the Liberal System Survive?. Web.
Layne, C. 2008. ‘China’s Challenge to US Hegemony’, Current History, vol. 107, no. 705, pp, 13-18.
Mearsheimer, J. 2005. The Rise of China Will Not Be Peaceful at All. The Australian. Web.
Alex Naumov. 2008. Russia, China and India may cause major international conflict. Web.
Toft, P. 2005. ‘John J. Mearsheimer: an offensive realist between geopolitics and power’, Journal of International Relations and Development, vol. 8, pp. 381 – 408.
Xia, M. 2006. “China Threat” or a “Peaceful Rise of China”?The New York Times. Web.