A Russian invasion of Ukraine would cause adverse changes to the world order, threatening the Middle East and North Africa with an economic slowdown and inflation. The main consequence that is already obvious is the increase in the cost of products and energy. Inflation will follow naturally, and this will reduce overall demand (Chaney, 2022). In addition, supply chains and the supply of resources to countries will be disrupted by military events. It should not be forgotten that European countries will face a new wave of refugees (Chaney, 2022). Usually, in wars, because there is uncertainty in the market, the overall volume of investment decreases. This means that Europe should expect capital outflows which will lead to a drop in the standard of living of residents and a decrease in GDP.
The Immediate Effects on Food Security in MENA
Russia and Ukraine supplied grain and vegetable oil to many countries worldwide and were leaders in these two areas. In addition, Russia continues to be the largest exporter of oil, petroleum products, and natural gas (Borck and Senogles, 2022). Due to military operations, logistical supplies have been largely disrupted (Borck and Senogles, 2022). For example, the movement of Ukrainian grain has been hindered by the Russian navy’s blocking export routes. It should also be noted that the war initiated by the Russian authorities caused higher prices for transportation of goods in general; more expensive are fertilizers, which Russia also exported in large quantities (Borck and Senogles, 2022). All this leads to an increase in the number of people who cannot provide themselves and their families with the same food as before the war.
For some Middle Eastern countries with oil resources, there is an opportunity to benefit from rising prices. However, in terms of the overall impact of the war, this positive effect will be imperceptible against a background of general price increases and food shortages. For North Africa, the war in Ukraine threatens to increase political instability, leading to economic fragmentation in the region (German Development Institute, 2019, p. 1; International Crisis Group, 2020, p. 9). Protests are especially expected in places where social security systems are underdeveloped, and unemployment is high.
Developing countries in arid regions such as the Middle East and North Africa will have a particularly difficult time. These countries are importers of more than 90% of the food produced, and their main providers are Ukraine and Russia (Borck and Senogles, 2022). These countries are heavily dependent on trade with Russia and Ukraine and are trying to compensate for their losses by making money from tourism (Halliday, 2010, p. 263). However, with the massive reduction in people’s incomes, trips abroad will be many times less. For example, Egypt will most likely experience an outflow of tourists, and this sphere of activity in the country makes up a significant part of its budget.
The direct damage caused by the war is not only the aggravation of world hunger and the deterioration of most countries’ economies. Other problems are primarily related to providing aid to nations already experiencing a humanitarian crisis. Western countries, focusing on the events in Ukraine, are beginning to pay less attention to countries such as Afghanistan and Yemen (Borck and Senogles, 2022). There, the number of people in need continues to grow at an unprecedented rate. The overall increase in prices is not compensated by a corresponding increase in humanitarian budgets.
Positioning of Players in the Conflict
Few countries have supported Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but they do exist: Eritrea, Belarus, Syria, and North Korea. However, there are also governments whose position remains quite controversial. For example, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supported the UN resolution, but they are in no hurry to adopt sanctions against the country (Borck and Senogles, 2022). There are friendly relations between the heads of the UAE and Russia. In addition, it should be mentioned that the relationship between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and U.S. President Joe Biden is very tense. Indeed, one should not interpret such state policies as support for the war. These countries have strong economic and political motives to remain neutral.
African countries also have reasons to adhere to a policy of neutrality. During the Cold War, Russia supplied arms to the continent to fight Western expansion. This certainly helped Africa to fight for its own independence. In addition, the painful colonial experience of past centuries certainly cannot be forgotten. Undoubtedly, there are certain patterns between the decisions that countries make and their history, current political regime, and economic situation (Ferrari and Tafuro Ambrosetti, 2020, p. 38). This determines the fact that there is no unified course of attitude in relation to Moscow.
Turkey’s Role in the Ceasefire
Turkey demands an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and wants to mediate the war between the two countries. Diplomatically, Turkey has been highly active in holding talks between Ukraine and Russia on its territory. During one of the meetings, it was possible to secure Russia’s pledge to reduce hostilities in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions. Turkey, a NATO member, tries to strike a balance between Ukraine and Russia. The narrative of the country as being able to dictate how the world order should be is emerging (Mühlberger and Alaranta, 2020, p. 57). The country has good relations with both Ukraine and Russia, making Turkey ideally suited to be the mediator in the conflict. However, the unwillingness of Russian negotiators to compromise and the refusal to hold a meeting between the two presidents reduce Turkey’s chances to de-escalate the conflict. It is also worth mentioning the differences between Turkey and the UAE, which contribute to instability in the Middle East (Aydıntaşbaş and Bianco, 2021, p. 2). Turkey will be limited in its leverage over the war in Ukraine due to numerous local conflicts of interest.
The Fate of the JCPOA Negotiations in Vienna
The nuclear talks, which have been ongoing in Vienna since April 2021, have taken longer than expected. The dialogue has also been affected by the hesitancy of the sides to demonstrate political will on a number of issues. Nonetheless, the positive messages from European, Iranian, and U.S. representatives in recent weeks have led many to believe that there will be an agreement this time. However, after Lavrov’s March 5 statements on U.S. written assurances, positive expectations were once again replaced by uncertainty (Borck and Senogles, 2022). The assumption is that the war between Russia and Ukraine could lead to the JCPOA negotiations in Vienna being delayed.
A Role for Mercenaries from the Arab World
Russia claims to have already recruited about 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East who are ready to go to Ukraine and fight on the side of Russian troops. Most of them are Syrians, who, according to Russian authorities, feel indebted to Russia for helping them in the civil war. In reality, however, mercenaries from Arab countries agree to participate in the war solely because they need finances. Rising prices for fuel, food, and drink threaten the people of the Middle East with a crisis. Therefore, some Arab mercenaries may agree to go to war on Russia’s side for money.
Reference List
Aydıntaşbaş, A. and Bianco, C. (2021) Useful enemies: how the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East.Web.
Borck, T. and Senogles, J. (2022) ‘Russia’s war on Ukraine: implications for the Middle East and North Africa’, RUSI, Web.
Chaney, E. (2022) ‘Ukraine’s war: the economic impacts’, Institut Montaigne, Web.
Ferrari, A. and Tafuro Ambrosetti, E. (2020) Forward to the past? New/old theatres of Russia’s International Projection. Milan: Ledizioni LediPublishing.
German Development Institute. (2019) The social contract: an analytical tool for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and beyond. Web.
Halliday, F. (2010) The Middle East in international relations: power, politics and ideology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
International Crisis Group. (2020) The Middle East between collective security and collective breakdown. Brussels: ICG.
Mühlberger, W. and Alaranta T. (2020) Political narratives in the Middle East and North Africa: conceptions of order and perceptions of instability. Cham: Springer Nature.