Introduction
The Arab spring started in 2011 in Tunisia. It has been noted that the revolution that occurred in several Arabic nations not only surprised the leaders of individual countries, but also caught most scholars and political analysts unawares (Gause 2011; Podeh, 2011). Gause (2011) further notes that the world has several institutions that have dedicated departments whose main role if to identify politically unstable countries that have a higher risk of getting into political turmoil. Notably, however, those same institutions had ranked the Arab nations among the relatively politically stable countries. Based on the foregoing, it is possible that the Arab spring went against theories that predict political stability. In the proposed research, therefore, the researcher will seek to identify the manner in which the Arab spring contravened modern theories of political stability. Specifically, the study will answer the question ‘How did the Arab spring contravene modern political stability theories?’
Justification of the topic
Before the Arab spring in 2011, leaders of particular countries within the Arabic world were notorious for their autocratic tendencies. Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Libya’s Muamar Gaddafi are just two examples of the dictators that led respective Arabic countries. Like other dictators, Gause (2011) notes that the autocratic leaders had a tight control of the military and the economy in the countries they ruled. Consequently, most political analysts assumed that the iron-fisted leaders ensured that there was political stability in their respective countries and that any dissent was quickly silenced. The choice of the Arab spring as an apt title for the proposed research is informed by a gap in existing literature, whereby, one gets the impression that theorists treat all countries, irrespective of their social and cultural differences, as similar. Consequently, there a widespread assumption that the theories that explain political stability (or the lack thereof) in America can be used in Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa and the Middle East. Arguably, and as illustrated by the Arab spring, the foregoing assumption is not always true.
Objectives
The objectives of the proposed research include:
- Identifying the cultural and social differences that made the Arab spring unpredictable
- Identifying the manner in which the Arab spring discounted modern political theory
- Identifying the need for a new political theory that factors in the social and cultural differences in different countries
Methodology
The proposed research will use a qualitative study approach. The study will further adopt an advanced search through literature as the main study tool. Based on the relatively few years that have passed since the Arab spring, the research will rely on online journals and books to obtain the information needed to analyze the issue accurately. Traditionally published books will also be used as a resource through which the researcher will identify political theories that have been used to explain political stability in most of the developed countries. Marrelli (2005) observes that if done in the correct manner, “literature reviews can be an efficient approach to gathering a large volume of information quickly and inexpensively” (p. 40). Marrelli (2005) further notes that a researcher can categorize literature sources based on the timeframe, genre, sources, or coverage. In the proposed research, a combination of genre and timeframe categories will be used.
Research framework
The proposed research will use a social constructionist paradigm of research. According to Carr and Kemmis (1986), democratic theory is founded on social constructionist paradigm since it focuses on how culture shapes the collective experiences and worldviews of different communities. As Andrews (2012) notes, social constructionist theorists “support the idea that people can indeed be agents of change” when faced with difficult situations (p. 44). Additionally, the paradigm supports the notion of an objective reality (Burr, 2003). It also seeks to understand how knowledge is developed and comprehended. Arguably, adopting the social constructivism paradigm will enable the researcher to understand how the Arabian spring was constructed and understood by the people who participated in the revolt. Additionally, the research paradigm will enable the researcher to understand why theories on political stability do not seem to offer a plausible explanation of the events that led to the Arab spring.
Literature Review
The term ‘Arab spring’ is often used in reference to the political revolt that occurred in specific Arabic countries including Yemen, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt between 2011 and 2012 (Rozsa, 2012). In just two years, regimes in the four aforementioned nations had been removed from power. The revolt had started in Tunisia, and as Rosiny (2011) observes, it spread to Egypt first and later to Libya in just several months. Notably, the protests did not just happen out of nowhere. Since 2000, Rosiny (2011) notes that there was growing disquiet in most Arabic countries, which was directed at the authoritarian regimes. However, no one expected that a public self-immolation by a Tunisian citizen would inspire so much protest from Tunisia and from several other Arabic countries (Rosiny, 2011).
In a commentary, Brownlee (2008) indicated that the autocracies in the Arab world share a common characteristic that “preserved the asymmetry of power” (p. 53). The common characteristic was the hereditary succession of leadership. Additionally, all such autocracies were adept at silencing political dissent from citizens either through the military of through the police (Brownlee, 2008). Over the years, however, there were structural imbalances that weakened the authoritarian regimes (Aarts et al., 2012). Such weaknesses were, however, not acknowledged by respective authoritarian governments. Critics nevertheless note that most of the political tensions should have alerted political analysts of the possibility of a revolt (Goodwin, 2011). However, Goodwin (2011) notes that revolutions always appear predictable when viewed in hindsight. Other scholars (Aarts & Cavatorta, 2013; Gamson, 2011; Gilbert & Mohensi, 2011; Gokmen, 2011) argue that the fall of the autocratic regimes was inevitable. Prior to the Arab spring, however, the idea that leaders such as Mubarak and Gaddafi would be ousted appeared implausible.
Timetable
The following timetable will be used during the proposed research
Conclusion
This research proposal provides a justification for the researcher’s choice of Arab spring as the subject of study. The paper indicates that there is a gap in existing literature created by the absence of analysis of the dissimilar social and cultural environments in different countries. The paper further identifies a qualitative methodology as the most ideal for use in the proposed study, specifically because the paper will use a literature review approach. A social constructionist approach was also selected as a research paradigm since it will allow the researcher to comprehend how the Arab spring was constructed and comprehended by the participants.
References
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Brownlee, J. (2008). The heir apparency of Gamal Mubarak. Arab Studies Journal, Fall/Spring, 36-56.
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