Since the beginning of the history of our species, humanity has come a long way in terms of evolution and development. However, as it approaches the peak of technological progress, a difficult question emerges in front of the species: what is waiting for it in the future? There are many different paths to approach this issue: from purely scientific and opportunistic to existential or even nihilistic – it all depends on who is going to study it. Nevertheless, the topic must be discussed, and the possibilities should be determined, as research may set the course of action for humanity to thrive and evolve. Although there are no constants to the equation, the wide variety of outcomes can be narrowed down to several groups according to their presumed results. The Swedish philosopher and the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University Nick Bostrom, in his essay The Future of Humanity, sketches out four possible scenarios of humanity’s fate.
The first scenario, according to Bostrom, is extinction – the complete ceasing of the human species. There are two ways for humanity to go extinct: the first leads to a transformation into another species through evolution or development; the second is simply dying out, whether from self-termination or other, independent reasons. It might be hard to believe that humanity may face extinction someday, as the world’s population grows exponentially with every generation and is now close to eight billion people. However, the concept of existential risk presented by different researchers shows that the chances of humanity surviving the next three to five generations are no better than 50% at best (Bostrom, 2009). The recurrent collapse scenario also falls under this category of outcomes, as it leads to a perpetual degeneration of human civilization. Nevertheless, for such a fate to occur, it would require a certain set of factors to create a stable mechanism that keeps humanity inside a narrow set of limitations.
The next version of humanity’s future is reaching a plateau. “Plateau” in this case means advancing the limits to the point when further development of the species is impossible or unnecessary. Another possibility, as Bostrom (2009) suggests, is “that development beyond a certain level is impossible because of limitation imposed by fundamental natural laws” (p. 17). However, this seems not to have too high of a risk to happen, as the physical laws of our universe are predicted to allow the forms of an organization classified as “posthuman” to exist. There is also the prospect of technological development that would make it exponentially easier to reach new scientific frontiers and upgrade humankind. So, in the long run, the possibility of humanity entering the state of stasis and staying there is very low, as all evidence points to the opposite scenario of rapid evolvement to the point of humanity becoming “posthuman.”
And now, to the most possible scenario of humanity’s future, as suggested by Bostrom – the post-humanity. The term refers to the concept of “posthuman condition,” which means that a person or a creature exists in a state beyond humans. Bostrom (2009) points out that “the cumulative probability of post-humanity, like that of extinction, increases monotonically over time” due to the exponential growth of technological progress and the world economy. The statement suggests that humanity will eventually reach an existential singularity and transform into post-humanity, beginning then the evolution process anew. The singularity hypothesis seems the most plausible out of all future scenarios, as one can see the evidence of it now in the rapid development of technology, artificial intelligence, and biological improvement in human intellect over time. Bostrom also suggests that “the annual risk of extinction will decline substantially after certain critical technologies have been developed and after self-sustaining space colonies have been created” (p. 26). This provides strong evidence for the high possibility of this certain future outcome.
Reference
Bostrom, N. (2009). The Future of Humanity. New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, 186–215. Web.