In trying to explain the meaning of ‘probable’ we assume that there is another thing that we can recognize as the indication of probable. We therefore know the meaning of probable by acquainting ourselves with the characteristics this ‘thing’ that makes ‘probable’ (Allen, 2008).
In other words, we take the word probable as a tool in a toolbox characterised by its use. The function of the tool is diverse, and so is the function of the word. In the explanation of Wittgenstein’s conception of philosophy, the author Fann (1969, pg. 68) says that instead of asking for the meaning of a word, we should look for ‘the explanation of the meaning’.
Probable events are those who’s knowledge of or our prejudice is not bound. In that we have no certainty of the outcome, when we refer to our previous encounters with the event, through first-hand knowledge or otherwise, we are unable to find congruent evidence that the event will repeat or occur in a given way.
We therefore are left to rely on the inadequate resources that acquaint us to the event. The probable event is that which we understand only through the framework while the predictable event is that which we know its nature, before it happens and after it happens.
According to Bernstein (1983), for the probable event we only have the “myth of the framework”. In relating to the explanation used above by Fann (1969), we can say that we are only aware of what the tool can do and not what it will do (we a number of outcomes but not the exact outcome).
Therefore the statement containing the phrase ‘odds are 60% that he or she will win’ is a prediction. It shows that all outcomes are known and have been considered, we have a given percentage which fulfils the condition of winning and is our evidence (Matthias, 2010) of the outcome. The case of prediction of statistical correlations results to uncertainty and may prompt premature reactions that otherwise would not occur when evidence of outcome is available.
Individuals have a free will to do that which they wish to do, however it is observable that when there is a consensus among individuals they are able to behave in a predictable manner based on matter that creates a consensus among them. The social structure of a society is held together by what Leach et.al. (1998) refers to as ‘social cement’ which arises as individuals become socialised and acquire common beliefs.
Thereafter their behaviour becomes predictable because they will always act based on their beliefs. Individual’s behaviour will change only when their beliefs change. With the recognition of the importance of beliefs in influencing behaviour, social sciences are moving closer to making their study predictable and thus become more like a hard science.
We are free to choose but we only have the choices we are aware of to choose from. Our interaction with nature provides us evidence that we use to base our choices. We therefore can behave in the ways that are possible based on the evidence available to us that shapes our beliefs (Leach et.al., 1998).
If we want to control events we must be able to recognize this fact: that individuals act in their free will and will freely behave in a way that is okay with their beliefs. Therefore to influence individuals, we influence what they believe in. Great company leaders succeed by impacting the belief of importance to their organization’s members (Daft & Marcic, 2008).
References
Allen, J. (2008). Antiochus of Ascalon. In Edward N. Z. (Ed.). The Stanford Encyclopaedia of Philosophy. Web.
Bernstein, R. (1983). Beyond objectivism and relativism: Science, hermeneutics, and praxis. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Daft, R. L. Marcic D. and (2008). Understanding management. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning.
Fann, K. T. (1969). Wittgenstein’s conception of philosophy. Berkeley, LA: University of California Press.
Leach, A., Stephens P., Taggart L., and Jones H. (1998). Think sociology. Cheltenham: Stanley Thomes (Publishers) Ltd.
Matthias, S. (2010). Epistemology. Zalta E. N. (Ed.). The Stanford Encyclopaedia of Philosophy. Web.