Introduction
The turmoil in Syria has been going on since 2011 and it has made many people to flee the country to neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey as refugees. Tens of thousands of people have lost their lives due to the war which has also caused a lot of destruction of the country major cities such as Damascus and Aleppo.
The causes of the conflict are complex because Syria is a multi ethnic society whose population is drawn from different social and religious backgrounds. Syria also has poor relations with some of her neighbors such as Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Syria’s civil war has caused a lot of divisions between various countries in the region.
As a result, Arab governments together with other major global powers such as the U.S., Russia and France have failed to come up with an appropriate strategy which can end bloodshed in the country. This paper will discuss the causes of the conflict in Syria and the geopolitical consequences that are likely to arise from it in the long run.
Causes of the Conflict
Syria has a complex history, which affects the manner in which different social and religious segments of the population relate with one another. Since its independence in 1946, the country has faced different challenges which have made it difficult for its citizens to remain united. One of the significant developments in the country occurred when the Baath Party became more prominent in the late 1940’s and early 1950’s.
The Syrian government challenged the establishment of the state of Israel and the subsequent expansion of its borders (Held and Cummings 287). General Hafez al Assad became the country’s leader in 1970 and he immediately implemented policies that were mainly driven by Arab nationalism and secular ideologies.
Since Assad was from Alawi; a minority ethnic community that was well represented in the Syrian armed forces, he was able to maintain his hold on power for a long period of time.
Unequal representation in the military in the last four decades has caused a lot of resentment from other segments of the population living in Syria, the most notable of which are Sunni Arabs. Moreover, the previous regime committed a lot of atrocities against Sunnis who tried to challenge the regime of General Assad which resulted in the massacre of tens of thousands of people.
Syria has also been involved in Lebanon’s internal politics and fought against Israeli forces during the country’s civil war in the late 1970’s. In addition, Syria also has hostile relations with Israel due to the latter’s excision of part of its territory in the Golan Heights.
Therefore, this shows that the country’s conflict goes beyond its borders and it involves other countries in the region which either support or oppose President Assad’s regime (Held and Cummings 290).
After Bashar al Assad took over from his father, General Assad, in 2000, he initiated various economic reforms which helped to strengthen the country’s ties to other European nations. However, he continued to oppress his opponents which helped to strengthen his power.
In addition, the Syrian regime was accused of storing large quantities of chemical weapons and sponsoring terrorist activities against other nations in the region. Sunnis have a lot of resentment towards Assad’s regime because it has denied an opportunity to participate in the political and social affairs of the country, thereby exacerbating ethnic divisions between them and Alawis (Held and Cummings 291).
Even though Assad’s regime opened up the economy to all segments of the populations, his failure to address longstanding differences between Alawis and Sunnis worsened tensions in the country. In addition, the military which is dominated by soldiers from the president’s Alawi ethnic group was used to suppress any form of opposition to the regime.
Syria has also hosts a large number of Palestinian refugees who have stayed in the country for a long period to escape harsh political and socio-economic conditions in their homeland. Before 2011, many people in the country were discouraged from taking part in any form of dissent that would destabilize Al Assad’s regime.
However, the wind of change that swept through Egypt, Libya and Tunisia emboldened some segments of the population to engage in revolts to topple Assad’s regime (Held and Cummings 293). The violent reprisals by government forces against protesters emboldened opposition groups that were mainly led by Sunni Arabs to wage war against government soldiers.
Since they were able to receive weapons from Turkey and other neighboring countries, they conducted military assaults against government positions in Aleppo, Damascus and other major cities. In addition, technology played a major role because it allowed local opposition groups to develop networks with other international organizations which provided them with resources they needed to fight Assad’s regime.
As time progressed, the civil war began taking on a religious tone where opposition groups began pursuing a radical Islamist agenda to challenge Assad’s rule. Extremist Sunni fighters became more involved in the conflict and they sought to support Syrian Sunni Arabs who as the majority population in the country, felt that they needed to take over from Assad.
Fundamental Islamic groups took advantage of the growing tensions in the country to reassert themselves and their agenda in the region. Therefore, since then, the Syrian conflict has attracted international players who have different economic, political and regional interests (Held and Cummings 294).
Many Alawis, who are only ten percent of the population, do not want Assad to give up power because they fear that this will pave the way for an authoritarian Sunni regime to take over. Since the region is dominated by wealthy Sunni monarchies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates, they fear they will be subjected to high levels of persecution and discrimination.
Sharp religious differences have made the conflict to become more complex and difficult to resolve. The Druze and Christians in the country are also not ready for a dominant Sunni regime because they fear that they will lose the freedoms they have enjoyed for the past fifty years.
Christians feel that their future in the country is uncertain and they prefer the status quo to prevail to prevent radical Sunni elements from taking over the country’s leadership. Even though some Syrian Kurds prefer to have their own homeland, others have remained loyal to Assad’s regime because they have faith in him as the only person who can bring stability to the country (Held and Cummings 294).
Therefore, they feel that by aligning themselves with Assad, they will become more influential in future especially if the current regime manages to contain the rebellion. Consequently, the social, political, ethnic and religious factors that are directly related to the conflict make it difficult for it to be resolved amicably.
Probable Geopolitical Consequences
Syria is located in a region that has historically witnessed different political and religious issues which continue to affect countries that share borders with it. It borders countries which face various political, social and religious challenges such; Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Israel and Lebanon. For instance, the country has been involved in wars with its neighbor, Israel due to its occupation of Golan Heights since the late 1960’s.
Assad’s defeat and subsequent removal from power would help the Israelis to become more assertive in the region due to hostile relations they have had with the current and previous Syrian regimes (Held and Cummings 297).
The frequent tensions the country has with the U.S., Israel and other western powers have denied it an opportunity to participate fully in global trade. For a long time, Syria has had stronger economic ties with the former USSR and Iran compared to the west and this was seen through the socialist leaning policies of the previous regime.
Even though the current president has embraced free market policies, the country still maintains strong multilateral relations with Russia and Iran. This approach has helped the country to overcome sanctions imposed against it by the U.S. and other western nations, thereby denying the country an opportunity to actualize its real potential.
Since it identifies itself with the Palestinian cause, Syria, just like many other nations in the region do not have diplomatic ties with Israel. In addition, the country’s secularist policies and its close relations with Iran have offended Saudi Arabia, whose laws are highly influenced by Islamic Sharia.
However, since Assad’s regime has battled Sunni militants since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, Saudi Arabia has been keen to have a regime change in the country (Held and Cummings 299). Its support of local rebels who seek to overthrow Assad has worsened bilateral relations between the two countries. In addition, this situation is complicated further by strong Iranian support for Assad’s regime.
Turkey, one of the nations in the region, which hosts a large number of Syrian refugees, does not have good relations with President Assad’s regime. Syria has for long been accused of supporting Kurdish separatist rebels, seeking to form their own state in the southern part of Turkey.
In addition, active involvement by Turkey in the conflict has also worsened bilateral relationships between the two countries because some rebel attacks against government forces have been initiated from Turkey. Therefore, the Turkish government supports a regime change in Syria, because of its perceived close relations with the U.S. and Israel.
The close political and economic links Syria has with Iran have helped it to overcome years of isolation from the international community (Held and Cummings 301). As a result, President Assad’s regime has managed to stay in power since 2011 due to the strong support it receives from Iran and Russia.
This has worried many Sunni Arab states in the region which do not have good relations with Iran due to its radical Shia doctrines and expansionist agenda.
Iran plays an important role in Syria and this will continue to create tension between the country and western states which consider Iran as a state financier of terrorism. The close Shiite relations between the two countries have seen many Iranian pilgrims visit Syria, for religious purposes.
Therefore, Iran will continue to use Syria to assert its role as a regional powerhouse and this will continue to deteriorate the relationships Syria has with other countries in the region. Since Iran is suspected of developing nuclear weapons, its close ties with Syria have made regional neighbors such as Israel and Saudi Arabia to worry about President Assad’s real intentions (Held and Cummings 304).
In addition, Syria is accused of storing dangerous chemical weapons and many countries in the region suspect that it may not hesitate to use them if it feels threatened. Therefore, this has continued to complicate the current conflict in the country.
Since western nations have offered a lot of support to Israel, Syria has been forced to maintain relations with Russia to overcome its international isolation. The previous regime had strong ties with the Soviet Union, offered a lot of technical and military support to help Syria for a very long time.
Since the collapse of the U.S.S.R., the Russia has continued to offer military and economic support to Assad’s regime to help it to maintain its influence in the region. Even though Syria tried to improve its relations with France and the U.S. after the current president took over power, it has relied on Russia’s veto powers in the UN Security Council to remain in power.
Russia has shot down proposals by other nations such as the U.S., France, U.K. and Turkey, to endorse military action against President Assad’s regime (Held and Cummings 306). As a result, this has helped President Assad to maintain his tight grip on power, thereby making it difficult for rebels to overthrow his regime.
The U.S. which is a strong supporter of Israel considers Syria as one of the most evil regimes in the world. Syria’s constant meddling in Lebanon’s internal affairs and the hostile relations the country has with Israel has made it difficult for the current regime to sustain beneficial bilateral exchanges with the US. The U.S. government has imposed sanctions against Syria accusing it of supporting terrorism in the region.
In addition, the country has also been accused of allowing insurgents to cross over into Iraq to launch violent attacks against the regime and U.S. forces who are based there.
Even though previous attempts have been made by the U.S. government to facilitate peace talks between Syria and Israel, the U.S. government has voiced its opposition towards the regime since the outbreak of the civil war (Held and Cummings 309). As a result, the U.S. favors the toppling of the current regime due to its close relations with Iran and Russia to avert any violent conflicts from occurring in future.
Conclusion
The conflict in Syria is complex and this requires the current regime to collaborate with other nations in the region to end the bloodshed. In addition, the international community needs to facilitate positive exchanges between the government and the rebels to high incidents of violence which are being witnessed.
All parties involved need to be encouraged to settle their differences to ensure peace and stability in the country is restored. Moreover, President Assad needs to be encouraged to initiate political and economic reforms to allow other segments of the population to participate in the running of government. In the long term, this will help the country to deal with different problems it is facing.
Works Cited
Held, Colbert C., and John Thomas Cummings. Middle East Patterns: Places, Peoples, and Politics. Boulder: Westview, 2014. Print.