The Technological Singularity Report

Introduction

Artificial Intelligence, previously seen as an inconceivable concept, is now a reality. For the past 30 years, technology has drastically developed and, moreover, began to evolve. At the hypothetical moment when the development of machines becomes beyond human control, the technological singularity will begin. Currently, the futurists try to define what the technological singularity constitutes, what can be considered as a start of the uncontrolled machine evolution and what impact it would make on humankind.

General Discussion: The TS definition, TS drivers, and obstacles

The possible definition of the TS

The future is inevitably coming, which constitutes its inherent feature. Artificial intelligence (AI), a digital neighbor of that of human beings, is now being exponentially developed, which, in turn, might lead to the technological singularity (TS). Nevertheless, defining intelligence and technological singularity is one of the most difficult problems one may face. One of them suggests that Intelligence is a problem-solving algorithm, that “can only be understood with respect to a specific problem” [1]. Chollet states that the AIs known so far are highly specialized – like playing computer games or classifying images into categories [1]. The other possible form of the Intelligence formulation (a machinery one, in this case) is the combination of the abilities of a machine to ‘think’, to collect data, and to adapt [10]. Whereas, the boundaries of determinacy of the aforementioned intellectual skills have not yet been defined.

According to Grout, the idea of TS can be realized through two concepts —process-based and result-based models [10]. The process-based model of the TS constitutes an automated replication combining design and production [10]. In order for the machine evolution to proceed, all phases should be completely automatized. However, they are subjected to human intervention and mediation between the sub-phases. The result-based definition constitutes the automatized and independent replication of hardware. It can be exemplified by a 3D printer that creates the identical version of itself [10]. Then, with the extra code lines, it might create a better version of itself. The superior versions may obtain better features – in hardware (control, power, capabilities) and software. In this case, thus, the evolution continues with each ‘generation’ of a machine.

The TS drivers and obstacles

With some of the TS definitions and Intelligence mentioned, the study will consider the TS drivers and obstacles. First, the powerful driver of the TS is the massive expansion of technology: connected computers, numerous devices, ongoing communication, data accumulation in cyberspace, boost the development of technology [2]. On the other hand, a powerful contributor is the designing and production of neuromorphic chips, which are more efficient and are capable of collecting sensory data, such as smell, sound, and image [2]. These chips are expected to change radically the machine learning process, which, in turn, catalyses the evolution of technology. The next TS driver, presented in the book “Conscious,” is the cooperation of hardware and software [10]. When integrating this, the hardware initially working with the primitive human-created software was later capable of adapting the software to its purposes and develop further.

Nevertheless, several processes and factors may impede the TS realisation. First of all, artificial intelligence is strongly limited by the framework of the environment for which it was created [2]. Sensors to stimulate brain activity can hardly afford to capture telephone devices nearby, as they were not designed for it. In other words, it implies the limitation of Intelligence development according to the context it expresses itself in. Then, the AI global regulation may become a difficulty for the TS to be reached. Earlier, global cooperation on such tasks as nuclear disarmament has been rather challenging [7]. Moreover, the elaboration of the AI needed to be regulated may provoke a certain advantage to the country that first develops it and, thus, provoke separation and rivalry between the countries. While claims to hardware and software may be challenged by fiction, such as Conscious’ by Grout, other arguments against the TS are based on research and scientific observations. In other words, there are two approaches to assessing and predicting the TS scenario, and the scientifically based scenario implemented by researchers is more reliable because it represents educational value.

The conflicting opinions on the issue

In continuation of the topic of scientific research on the phenomenon of TS, it is essential to show that the available information around this problem only describes in detail the definitions of technological singularity and predicts its development through the proliferation of electronic devices or integration of subsystems, but cannot create a unified model of views on the question of whether such a future has come. According to Lahoz-Beltra [4], humankind will not reach the technological singularity soon due to limited resources and energy. The researcher suggests that if at present about 1000 Exabytes are stored on the Internet, and human knowledge doubles every 12 months, then the point of reaching TC may not come shortly. Soon, the Internet will consume the total electricity produced worldwide, and the energy used would be equivalent to “the energy produced by 1500 nuclear plants” [4]. Therefore, with the current technology, it is hardly possible to reach the TS in the near future.

However, there are other views on why the TS scenario will not be implemented soon. Some experts state that the TS point cannot be reached due to the specific, limited forms for the Intelligence to increase. Upchurch assumes that a brain needs a certain environment to gather knowledge: he suggests that if intelligence growth is linked to a specific environment, upbringing, and a problem to solve, then it cannot evolve solely by existing isolated [3]. The children that did not grow up within the human culture environment are not able to develop human intelligence. The human baby is born with a set of reflex behaviours that drive their sensorimotor development and learning: “hands that can grab, eyes to visually follow objects” [2]. This innate capabilities boost human intelligence development; the brain itself, isolated, is not capable of increasing intelligence. The AI is, therefore, highly unlikely to evolve and reach the TS is not included in a context.

However, some researchers, futurists, and science fiction writers claim the high possibility for the current technology to reach the TS soon. “The Internet of Things” (‘It’), described by Grout in his book ‘Conscious’, acquired control over transportation, communications, climate, life-support, and weaponry [10]. Such control could be gained only by the exponential growth of machine intelligence. Furthermore, others claim that AI growth and development not only is possible but also would benefit people. Grout describes the smartwatch, which is capable of delivering the location of a certain person to their loved ones [9]. He also enhances the ability of ‘It’ to load the nutritional information to the personal diet plan [9]. The AI evolution is happening in the present moment, and its development will only be accelerated more.

Despite distinct points of view on the technological singularity, if not achieved shortly, can be, at least, approached to. The growth and evolution of the machines may contribute to the increase of the resources and energy, which, in turn, may deliver space for further AI development. Although, to investigate an artificial brain functioning and intelligence growing in a specific environment can hardly be implemented at present. The futurists and fiction writers, along with the researchers, contribute to the development of diverse devices and the constant speed growth of technology, taking the population one step closer to the technological singularity.

The social, ethical, moral, legal, political, economic impact

The machine evolution entails enormous changes in all aspects of life: social, ethical, moral, political, environmental, and economic. It is worth starting with the supposition that the legal realm may be significantly affected by AI development. The expansion of the security systems, coupled with satellite and camera recording, may ensure and, at the same time, abuse one’s privacy [6]. A camera or a satellite could record each move in the street or an outlying area. Moreover, the possible impact on social life may be ambiguous: on the one hand, technology development implies better communication among people at any part of the world and, thus, may provide people with an opportunity to gather, collect, and share information instantly. However, there are other views on why the TS scenario will not be implemented soon. On the other hand, the development and expansion of AI technologies can be a reason for the human loss of skills, limited memories, slow thinking speeds, and may cause unemployment and social inequalities [8].

Furthermore, a machine can hardly be conscious of the environmental, political, economic, and moral impact it makes. The ‘It’ destroyed a large part of life on Earth since the machine is not aware of what life means [9]. Economic progress is inextricably linked to regular automatization: if this process, due to AI development, increases in terms of production of goods and services across nations, the economic system may be changed significantly [5]. The ethical and moral aspects of human’s life may also be changed drastically. For instance, robots may benefit or harm people and may be prosecuted as a human being. However, the measures of restraint and penalty for machines may be different from those for human beings [6]. Finally, if AI is capable of replacing human, the boundaries of human nature may be reconsidered.

Conclusions

The technological singularity, a capability of the machine to replicate its hardware and software without human intervention, remains an arguable issue. The experts define the notion as an ability of the AI to design, produce, replicate, and evolve automatically. The latter, although, is doubted by many since the evolution of any AI demands purpose and consciousness that the machine does not possess. While some state the TS is inevitable, others argue that it will scarcely happen in the near future due to the limited resources and the impossibility for the isolated artificial brain to learn and develop. The author of the current study, however, believes that the TS will shortly happen. Soon, the scientists will find the manner for the AI to learn within the human culture context, gather and collect data at unbelievable speed. The human desire to transcend to borders will motivate people to manage social, economic, and other problems emerging with AI development.

References

1. F. Chollet, “The implausibility of intelligence explosion,” Medium, 2017. [Online]. Web.
2. J. Pandaya, “The troubling trajectory of technological singularity,” Forbes, 2019. [Online]. Web.
3. M. Upchurch, “Robots and AI at work: The prospects for singularity,” New Technology, Work and Employment, vol. 33, no. 3, pp: 1-14, 2018. [Online]. Web.
4. R. Lahoz-Beltra, “The ‘crisis of noosphere’ as a limiting factor to achieve the point of technological singularity,” Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems, vol. 16, no. 1, pp: 92-109, 2018. [Online].
5. S. Bini, “Artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, and cognitive computing: What do these terms mean and how will they impact health care?” The Journal of Arthroplasty, vol. 33, no. 8, pp: 2358-2361, 2018. [Online]. Web.
6. S. Livingston and M. Risse, “The future impact of artificial intelligence on humans and human rights,” Ethics & International Affairs, vol. 33, no. 2, pp: 141-158, 2019. [Online]. Available: Ebook library B-OK.org, Web.
7. V. Callaghan, “Introduction to the Technological Singularity,” in The Technological Singularity. Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, 2017, pp: 1-11.
8. V. Callaghan, “How change agencies can affect our path towards a singularity,” in The Technological Singularity. Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, 2017, pp: 1-11.
9. V. Grout, Conscious. Lulu Press, 2016.
10. V. Grout, “The singularity isn’t simple! (However we look at it) A random walk between science fiction and science fact”, Information, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 99–116, 2018. [Online].