Introduction
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) occupies a pivotal geopolitical position characterized by its strategic location and the presence of a large amount of natural resources. Utilizing their existing reserves and reliable strategies, the country’s government successfully achieved sustainable and significant economic growth and prosperity. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the UAE does not exist in isolation from other countries and is also subject to external influences, which, in this case, stem from tensions between the US and China (Perthes 2021). A study of the five most significant consequences of this confrontation’s influence can help in understanding what interests are imperative for the UAE.
Impact on the Economic Sector
Firstly, it is essential to note that the UAE’s economic foundation is built on international trade. Large volumes of trade turnover can maintain a sufficient level of support for the internal system. The trade war between the United States and China is having a profoundly negative impact on international trade networks (Zhao, 2019). This affects stability within the UAE, as the weakening of the global economy due to such confrontation leads to a decline in oil prices, which is the country’s main export.
Energy Threats
The global energy supply chain is inextricably entwined with the UAE as one of the leading players in this market. A country that produces a large amount of petroleum products may be subject to restrictions and face difficulties in accessing supplies. The standoff between the US and China could disrupt several vital shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. This could lead to further escalation of the trade war situation and the UAE joining them.
Increasing Instability in the Region
The intensifying rivalry between the United States and China has influenced the behavior of other countries. Both countries are beginning to actively seek allies to exert as much pressure as possible (Kuik 2021). Thus, each region can be subject to significant changes due to the shifting positions of countries. This will also affect UAE National Security, for example, due to the consequences that may arise from China’s rapprochement with Iran (Cook 2021). This leads to significant destabilization, which negatively affects the well-being of the UAE.
Impact of Modern Technology
In the modern world, a shift towards digitalization has begun, which is occurring in all areas, including social and political. The USA and China are among the countries with the most developed microelectronics industry. Thus, this creates a confrontation in the field of cyber capabilities. The spread of cyberattacks and fraudulent activity may affect third parties, such as the UAE (Dempere et al., 2023). This, in turn, may worsen relations with one of the parties to the conflict, which will hurt the country’s neutrality.
Diplomatic Balance
Maintaining good relations with both the United States and China is one of the crucial directions in the UAE’s international policy. The country must strive to avoid being drawn into the rivalry between the US and China, which is crucial to maintaining the integrity of economic relations (Ajayan 2022). Additionally, the UAE’s ability to interact with both parties is beneficial in facilitating the full implementation of international trade.
Conclusion
Growing tensions between the United States and China have significant implications for several key factors in the UAE’s functioning. Among these, the principal concerns are the economy, energy, regional stability, cybersecurity, and neutrality. Thus, affecting all the above categories, the trade and political confrontation between the United States and China leads to a deterioration in the UAE’s well-being. The UAE’s interests in these areas are to benefit from international trade that the US and China may jeopardize.
References
Ajayan, Shalini, Sreejith Balasubramanian, and Sunder Ramachandran. 2022. “Benchmarking the Research Performance of United Arab Emirates with Gulf Cooperation Council Countries – A Bibliometric Study.” Frontiers in Education 7: 1- 13.
Cook, Steven A. 2021. Major Power Rivalry in the Middle East. New York: Council on Foreign Relations.
Dempere, Juan, Muhammad Qamar, Hesham Allam, and Sabir Malik. 2023. “The Impact of Innovation on Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Self-Employment: A Global Perspective.” Economies 11 (7): 182.
Kuik, Cheng-Chwee. 2021. “Getting Hedging Right: A Small-State Perspective.” China International Strategy Review 3(2): 300-315.
Perthes, Volker. 2021. “Dimensions of Rivalry: China, the United States, and Europe.” China International Strategy Review 3: 56-65.
Zhao, Minghao. 2019. “Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Chinese Perspectives on US-China Strategic Competition.” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 12 (3): 371- 394.