Introduction
Marketing analysis and forecasting plays an imperative role in planning the operations and growth of any company. The size of the market is greatly influenced by the prevailing economic conditions, demographic factors, competition, culture, religious factors, government legislation, technological changes, social trends, fashion and, ability of customers to purchase products.
In this paper, a detailed analysis of the butadiene company was carried out. Butadiene is used to manufacture tires. The analysis was carried out in seven regions, Central Europe, Middle East, North America, South America, North East Asia, West Europe and South East Asia. The total supply, demand, capacity and the operating rates for the different regions were analyzed.
Central Europe
It is expected that the total demand in this region to increase steeply between the years 2012 to 2016 and then stagnate at this level for the next six years. This means that more of their products will be demanded in this region. The average demand of butadiene is 266000 metric tons (2007 to 2012 average).
The total capacity has been increasing with a small margin of about 1% though there was some decline in the year 2010 owing to the demand for more cars and hence the demand for tires increase. It is forecasted that the total capacity will remain constant (at 278000 metric tons) up to 2014 and then increase to 346000 in 2015 followed by a further increase of about 2 % to reach 413000 metric tons. This capacity is expected to stagnate at this level. The total capacity influences the total supply and this same curve will be expected for this region.
Middle East
In the Middle East region, the average total demand has been 254000 metric tons in 2007. By the year 2012, the demand had risen to 333000 tons due to increase in purchased cars. The total demand is expected to fall within the forecasting period. It is expected that the total capacity to remain at 382000 tons up to year 2017 and increase steadily to 615000 tons in the same year.
The operating rate has been declining and this trend is expected to continue for the forecasting period due to a reduction in cars purchased. The market will stagnate and this is because the tire manufacture depends on vehicles bought.
North America
The total demand for the butadiene in this region reduced from 2432000 to 2432000 metric tons during the 2007 to 2011 period. During 2012, the total demand rose slightly. It is forecasted that the demand will reduce continuously up to year 2016 and then increase rapidly this follows the demand for cars in this region.
Due to the total demand, the total capacity of the plant will remain stagnant up to 2019 and increase slightly for the remaining period. The operating rate is expected to rise from 63.3% to 84.1% from the year 2013 to 2022. This is in response to the total demand fluctuations for this region. The total supply is also expected to rise from 1953000 metric tons in 2013 to 2740000 in the year 2022.
North East Asia
In this region, butadiene has large demand due to the number of cars purchased. The total demand increased from 426000 to 5046000 metric tons from the year 2007 to 2012. It is expected that the demand in this region will increase steadily for the forecasting period. To cater for this supply, the total capacity must be increased. The operating rate and the supply are also expected to rise owing to the increased demand.
South America
In this region, butadiene is not in high demand as there are cars. From the year 2007, the total demand increased 352000 to 379000 metric tons. It is forecasted that the demand will rise slightly from 379000 tons in 2012 to 530000 metric tons by the year 2022 owing to the increased market share in this region. The total supply is also expected to increase as the demand rises. The plant operating rate will increase to 81% by the year 2022.
Southeast Asia
In this region, the products are not in high demand as compared to other regions as seen from the total demand. It is forecasted that the total demand will rise from 563000 tons in the year 2013 to 964000 metric tons by the year 2022 as it gains more customers. The total capacity is expected to increase from 2013 to 2018 and then stagnate at 1065000 metric tons.
The total supply is also expected to rise with increased demand. The operating rate reduced from 98.5% in the year 2007 to 81.7% in the year 2012 and this trend will continue up to 2017 and then rise with a small margin.
Western Europe
There is great demand for its product in this region due to the demand for cars. The company expects that the market will increase slightly from 2101000 metric tons to 2243000 metric tons by the year 2022. The total capacity has been constant from the year 2007 to 2012. The company expects that this trend will continue up to 2013 and increase slightly so as to cater for increased demand and supply.