China’s Economic Future Possibilities Essay

Four Futures

In the book End of an Era, Carl Minzner identifies four possible futures for China. The first one is the country might slip into a “hard” dictatorship whereby the current top-down authoritarianism will have total control. In such a scenario, China might become an impossible country to deal with and focus on domestic and foreign policies that resonate with the ones of North Korea.¹ The people will have little or no voice over the decisions and pursuits the government will intend. It will also have negative relations with other foreign countries. The second possible outcome or future for China is the emergence of populist nationalism. Through the current economic and political approaches, more citizens might become patriotic and support the country’s internal and external agenda. In such a situation, the Chinese government will be in a position to control economic activities while at the same time focusing on the best ways to meet the demands of its people. However, it will have negative relationships and inappropriate foreign policies. However, such a scenario might increase China’s odds of pursuing its hegemonic goals.

The third possible future Minzner predicts is that of a dynastic cycle. This future is possible due to the recording wrangles among the elites in the country. The result is that the people would be on the driver’s seat and create opportunities for elites to seize political power. The possible domestic implication is that the Chinese culture will flourish, thereby making the nation an economic and cultural hub. However, such ambitions could have negative impacts on the country’s foreign policy and eventually result in new enemies. These trends will set the stage for a possible decay. The fourth possible future emerging from the studied book is that of regime collapse.² This possibility might become a reality due to the absence of strong institutions and legitimate agencies to pursue government agenda. This outcome means that people will be unhappy with the country’s management process and engage in protests. This possible future will also make it easier for countries to influence political, economic, and social practices in China.

From my informed perspective, I strongly believe that China has higher chances of experiencing a regime collapse. The reason for picking such an option or future is due to the current state of affairs in this country. Specifically, the institutions put in place are weak and illegitimate. The emergence of any form of social unrest or political decompression might occur, therefore resulting in the collapse of the communist party. Additionally, the country’s move to copy Putin’s model and ambitions encounter numerous gaps, such as absence of strong policies and support from the people.³ These aspects explain why the selected future has higher chances of becoming a reality in China.

CCP and Economy

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is presently identified as the founding political party that has played a significant role in promoting economic growth in China. To achieve the intended objectives, the top leaders of CCP began by focusing on the best climate that would give rise to positive outcomes. For instance, it promoted a sense of political monopoly by consolidating power and presenting policies that had the potential to transform people’s experiences and expectations⁴. With this kind of monopoly and control, CPP has succeeded in promoting rapid economic transition and growth. Within a short period, the party was able to maximize China’s recognition at the global arena.

From this analysis, it becomes quite clear that the CPP is directly linked to the Chinese economy. Through the promoted policies and ideologies, the party has succeeded in managing internal and external affairs while pursuing strategies that have the potential to promote economic development. Over the past century, this party has been associated with unique decisions and economic reforms that have transformed the country’s political influence. However, some critics acknowledge that most of the recorded gains have been experienced amidst numerous internal challenges, such as poverty, unemployment and systemic inequality.⁵ Despite such observations, the country has been growing its economy steadily while modernizing a wide range of its sectors, including the military.

Over the years, this party has remained more or less the same since its initial establishment in 1921. Although it has promoted a number of economic and market reforms, CCP has remained unchanged by promoting a Leninist model or approach to the economy. This outcome has been possible since it retains three pillars to manage most of its affairs.⁶ These include the People’s Liberation Army, propaganda, and control of personnel. The election system has remained unchanged, thereby making it easier for the party to make appropriate decisions on matters to do with economy performance, governance, and power.

However, Xi Jinping has introduced a number of notable changes since his rise to power in the year 2012. Specifically, he has been keen to consolidate his overall control over most functions and goals of the party. He has even gone further to push the country’s legislative assembly to put an end to the term limits. These measures will make it possible for Xi Jinping to rule this country indefinitely.⁷ Such changes mean that the party might no longer be focusing on economic growth in the near future as the countries pursue its hegemonic goals. These aspects reveal that various changes have been observed during the post-Mao era. From the nature of the developments, it is agreeable that a negative relationship might develop between CCP and the nation’s economy.

China and the Developing World

Many scholars have been keen to monitor and analyze China’s strategy for engaging the developing world. Specifically, the country’s top leadership has been relying on its booming economy to show emerging nations with promises revolving around infrastructure. These efforts have been pursued in such a way that China will benefit in the long run. In most of the cases, Chinese investment procedures have been observed to result in political and economic influences.⁸ For instance, Sri Lanka is one of the countries that are finding it hard to have total control over their sovereign infrastructures and assets donated by the Chinese government.

However, experts have revealed that China has not been aggressive in such efforts. Through such a process, it has eroded trust in democratic institutions while at the same time promoting corruption in the developing countries. Through the ensuing partnerships, the Chinese government has succeeded in increasing the odds for policies ad politicians who are capable of supporting or promoting Chinese interests. It has gone further to promote CPP control while controlling the nature of information available to other developed countries.⁹ The ultimate aim has been to deliver a positive story for China’s investments abroad. This kind of reception has made it possible for the Chinese government to remain acceptable and capable of influencing political and economic policies in the developing world.

From this analysis, the Chinese government has been successful in attracting and influencing a wide range of domestic affairs in many countries. Specifically, China is today investing heavily in many countries in different parts across the globe, including Africa, Latin America, and other Asian countries. China has also been on the frontline to consider the best ways to manage the nature and quality of information available to more citizens. The global society should, therefore, be keen to monitor the nature of this foreign policy towards emerging countries. A proper approach will make it easier for them to examine whether such efforts are in line with China’s overall ambitions for world domination. This new strategy will make it easier for all countries and their respective governments to appreciate the fact that there are serious complexities that are emerging from such relationships. The ultimate aim should be to ensure that China does not take advantage of these emerging nations or control their resources, foreign policies, or political systems.

Multilateralism

The concept of multilateralism has become more meaningful in the field of foreign policy. The term is widely used to describe the nature of alliance emerging between two or more sovereign states with the same goal. China is one of the nations that have been keen to focus on the process to identify allies that have common objectives and goals. China has been focusing on a unique foreign policy that is intended to accommodate emerging nations while at the same time siding with countries that are military stable.¹⁰ Specifically, the Chinese government has been keen to partner with Russia and North Korea in matters to do with international policies and economic goals. These countries will collaborate whenever they have a common enemy.

Similarly, China has been promoting the idea of multilateralism in such a way that most of the emerging countries are not able to take control of affairs. Instead, the country is engaging or pursuing partnerships that resonate with its overall foreign policy. For the case of Russia, China has been keen to establish strong diplomatic ties that are capable of delivering long-term security obligations.¹¹ When engaging in such connections, China has been keen to ensure that every decision is in line with the outlined foreign policy objectives. first, China has been focusing on alliances at the international level that are capable of promoting rapid economic development while at the same time presenting opportunities for expanding its military. Second, the option of multilateralism is pursued in such a way that it supports its efforts in countering possible threats from the United States and its allies.

The third possible goal that is in line with the process of multilateralism is ensuring that China has access to a wide range of natural resources that can support economic development. The fourth goal ensuring that the countries in the alliance are capable of maximizing its international influence. Combined, these objectives are pursued in such a way that China gets more partners whose efforts and contributions have the potential to maximize its development and status and the international level. The Chinese government would also be keen to emphasize on specific goals depending on the targeted country and its region.¹² The ultimate aim, therefore, is for China to continue relying on the power of multilateralism to continue pursuing its hegemonic ambitions.

References

Dollar, D. (2019). Global China: Understanding China’s belt and road infrastructure projects in Africa. Brookings Institution.

Minzner, C. (2018). End of an era: How China’s authoritarian revival is undermining its rise. Oxford University Press.

Shambaugh, D. (Ed.). (2020). China and the world. Oxford University Press.

Varrall, M. (2015). Chinese worldviews and China’s foreign policy. Lowly Institute for International Policy.

Footnotes

1. See Minzner, C. (2018). End of an era: How China’s authoritarian revival is undermining its rise. Oxford University Press, specifically chapter 6.
2. See Minzner (2018), chapter 6.
3. See Varrall, M. (2015). Chinese worldviews and China’s foreign policy. Lowly Institute for International Policy.
4. See Shambaugh, D. (Ed.). (2020). China and the world. Oxford University Press, especially chapter 4.
5. See more information from this article: Dollar, D. (2019). Global China: Understanding China’s belt and road infrastructure projects in Africa. Brookings Institution.
6. See the Conclusion chapter from Minzner, C. (2018). End of an era: How China’s authoritarian revival is undermining its rise. Oxford University Press.
7. See more from Shambaugh, D. (Ed.). (2020). China and the world. Oxford University Press.
8. (See footnote 3).
9. See more from Shambaugh, D. (Ed.). (2020). China and the world. Oxford University Press.
10. (See footnote 4).
11. More information from Dollar, D. (2019). Global China: Understanding China’s belt and road infrastructure projects in Africa. Brookings Institution.
12. (See footnote 9).