Climate change, the term which is also known as global warming, is a change in weather patterns over long periods of time. Changes in weather can either affect regions of the earth or the whole globe (Sagan & Mullen 1972).
Global warming is already affecting plant and animal life on the earth, but the most devastating effects are expected if the current rate of changing patterns of rainfall, storms, droughts, and floods continues to grow in the future. For instance, annual distribution and quantity of precipitation have changed; when it is raining, it appears to be more intense in some regions compared to the previous years.
Human activity is by far the most implicated causal factor. Emission of green house gasses is expected to increase as more and more developing countries move towards industrialization. Several mitigation measures are currently being explored by different players.
The problem is aggravated by the fact that we have to deal with the current effects of the past emissions as we try to reduce the emissions of the present days. Reduction of emission has taken a political course, thus becoming more difficult to solve. Countries have disagreed on the amount of green house gasses each state is supposed to reduce.
There are a number of areas in my life, career, and future that could be influenced by climate change
They include the following factors.
Water supply
Climate change will greatly influence the distribution of fresh water all over the world. As the temperatures rise, it will rain more in some areas, while the other regions will get scanty rainfall per year. The tropic and the subtropical lands are expected to experience decreased rainfall. In these areas, occasional heavy rainfalls will be observed. Heavy rain will result in floods and intense erosion of the soil.
The temperate regions precipitation during winter will fall as it will be raining rather than snowing. This will greatly influence the water flows.
There will be observed a reduction in the level of the inundation during the spring time, and on the other hand, during winter, the level of water will be increased (Watson & Harrison 2005). As a result, during floods, more pollutants will be carried into the water bodies. Water available for drinking and household use will be significantly reduced.
Scenario
A man who has been out during the day walks into a hotel located right at the center of town. As he takes his seat, he notices that there is no ice in the freezer. It also strikes him that the free bottles of water, normally provided by the hotel, are absent.
He orders for a meal that usually has a generous serving of soup, and he cannot help but notice that the quantity of soup has somehow reduced. When he is done with his meal, he is offered one bottle of water. As he leaves the hotel, one of the employees explains him that because of the reduction in the water supply, the hotel has recently begun trying to safe on the cost of water.
Risk analysis table
Key: Likelihood: 1 – unlikely; 5 – the most likely, Impact: 1 – negligible; 5 – profound, Level: 1 – important; 5 – the least important.
Lack of water is more likely to cause dehydration. Risk of dehydration occupies the most important position because it is the most immediate effect to be experienced at an individual level. It is necessary to note that the reputation of the establishment can be severely dented by this situation.
On the one hand, this scenario presents a business opportunity for the entrepreneurs. This opportunity will inevitably raise the cost of running this kind of business if the hotel has to rely on the third parties to provide the water supply.
Food security
Climate change will influence the availability of food in the future. As the global temperatures rise, the weather conditions will become erratic. Some areas will experience increased rainfall, and the others, on the contrary, will become dryer. Excess rainfalls, floods as well as droughts do not favor the growth of the crops and good harvest.
Increase in the annual precipitation in the areas that have previously experienced moderate rainfall will necessitate change of farming habits and the range of crops that can be successfully cultivated there. Desertification will present a greater challenge to humankind (Hagemann, Gebre-Mariam, & Groves 1994).
Emerging wetlands may be a benefit fro such crops like rice, but it is going to be difficult to cultivate this crop in the area where a different kind of crop has been previously raised. This is worsened by the fact that different regions and communities have various staple foods. This may make the populations cultivate crops that they are not historically and regionally used to forced by the changing climate patterns.
Scenario
Assume that a farmer in the United States of America wants to raise corn in his farm. He searches for all the relevant information on corn farming and embarks an ambitious plan and marks out 50 000 hectares of his land for a field with this corn. He visits a veteran farmer to get a piece of advice and learns that in the recent past, it has been almost impossible to run this business
. Further inquiries reveal that the current opportunity to cultivate that corn can be ascribed to erratic rainfall and changing temperature patterns. After consultation with the federal agricultural department, he decides to abandon his plan to raise corn. He is advised to explore the possibility of use his farm for raising oranges.
Risk analysis table
Key: Likelihood: 1 – unlikely; 5 – the most likely, Impact: 1 – negligible; 5 – profound, Level: 1 – important; 5 – the least important.
Starvation is unlikely to occur in the near future, but when it does, the impact on the land and its population will be great. Malnutrition is more likely to affect populations that rely heavily on subsistence farming. Perhaps, the most possible effect of climate change is loss of the revenue. Farmers who are already growing certain crops may get losses from crop failures.
According to this scenario, one can also spot a business opportunity. There could be an opportunity to import food and animal feeds from the other parts of the world to the needed areas. This scenario can also give rise to a consultancy business. Such a business would provide a piece of advice to farmers on what kind of crops to raise and when to cultivate them.
Increased cost
Climate change has the potential to increase the cost of running the business as well as the cost of living. The cost of living will grow since expensive farming methods will be used. This high cost of production is then passed on to the consumer. Getting other basic commodities like water will also be difficult. One will have to spend more for less. According to the worst case scenario, focus may shift from quality to quantity. Farmers will experience more crop failures and increased cost of maintaining the crop in the fields.
Insurance claims will go up as it is expected that insurance companies will be unable to cope with the increasing number of claims. A response to this crisis by the insurance companies will be to increase insurance premiums.
Therefore, climate change will not only raise the cost of living but also the cost of running business. It is also considered that climate change will cause loss of revenue in the tourism sector. As the climate changes, some flora and fauna of the world will be eliminated. Economies of some regions depend on tourism, and loss of this will be devastating to those states.
Scenario
We will examine a case of a farmer who has insured his crop against failure occasioned by erratic weather. His crops fail in one of the seasons, and he goes to make a claim and learns that he is not alone. Many other farmers have come to make claims. When this transaction is complete, he decides to increase his insurance coverage to include his cattle.
At this point, he is informed that insurance premiums have gone up and that he will have to pay up front. Though he takes the insurance, he is not quite sure how he is going to recover this new cost. He finally decides to pass the cost to the retailers.
Risk analysis table
Key: Likelihood: 1 – unlikely; 5 – the most likely, Impact: 1 – negligible; 5 – profound, Level: 1 – important; 5 – the least important.
Climate change will increase the cost of running business in all the sectors. An important risk associated with increased costs is failure to run business. If the cost of running a business becomes unbearable, some players may decide to wind up their businesses.
Health
Climate change has a great effect on the overall health of individuals. Changing climate will have a negative effect on the health status of some individuals. Some areas that were previously warm may become cold, thus causing deterioration of health. Good health is an important factor of production.
Scenario
Let us assume that a certain man living in a region that has been affected by climate change wants to set up in business that operates at night. Because he does not know his current health status, he goes ahead with his plans. When he finally opens his shop, he realizes that his health condition is deteriorating at a high rate. When he seeks medical advice, his doctor tells him that he cannot longer work at night.
Risk analysis table
Key: Likelihood: 1 – unlikely; 5 – the most likely, Impact: 1 – negligible; 5 – profound, Level: 1 – important; 5 – the least important.
This is a response plan for high priority risks/opportunities associated with the key areas outlined in this paper
Loss of reputation
Loss of reputation is a risk associated with a lack of fresh water. Firms operating in the service and hospitality sector are greatly affected. To mitigate this risk firms and governments should work together to ensure that fresh water is present in the premises at all times. Firms could also higher the services of water vendors. The most important measure will be to be attached to the water conservation measures.
Financial Loss
Loss of finances is associated with increased cost in running business. To avoid such a situation from occurring companies and governments, the measures to reduce the costs should be implemented. For instance, governments could consider providing subsidies to farmers. As a strategic manager, I would advice firms to reduce cost of running business through adoption of concepts like just-in-time and lean production.
Dehydration
An important risk associated with lack of fresh water for drinking is dehydration. While it is highly unlikely that this is going to happen, there is some possibility of it reoccurring. To prevent this situation from arising, water should be used wisely. Everybody should strive to save water. At an individual level, people should carry their own water supply.
Starvation
Changing climate can lead to scarcity of food. To mitigate this problem, food wastage should be reduced or eliminated. Farmers should be encouraged to cultivate crops which are the best suited to their regions using the latest technology (Nemani et al. 2003). This ensures that they get optimum yield. People should also be advised to change their eating habits including adopting new diets.
Malnutrition
Malnutrition may accompany lack of food. Malnutrition may affect communities that rely on subsistence farming for food. In the face of climate change, the range of crops they can grow reduces. To stop this situation from arising communities in such areas should be advised to try crops from other regions of world.
Ilness
this risk is associated with lack of clean water. Climate change can lead to water pollution. Surface run off can deposit poisonous chemicals in water bodies. Illness from drinking contaminated water likely to happen in some settings. To deal with this problem, industrial effluent should be treated first before being discharged to designated areas.
Loss of revenue
companies like insurance companies can loss revenue from increased number of claims. To mitigate this problem, insurance companies should increase the range of covers they provide. They should also try to maintain the cost of premiums low. This can benefit them in the long run through increased number of customers.
Business opportunity
some of these scenarios can be explored for business opportunities. For instance, in the first scenario, there is an opportunity for entrepreneurs to set up water vending businesses. In the second scenario, there is an opportunity to provide consultancy services to businesses and farmers. These opportunities should be tested for viability. Those that are found to be viable can then be tried.
Overall response plan
The overall response plan should focus on climate change itself and not on the risks associated with it. In order to deal with current problems caused by past climate change, all stakeholders should adopt innovative and cost effective ways. Focus should be on reducing emissions. Though it is not easy for governments to come to an agreement on this issue, it is possible for them to agree on some interim measures.
If emissions are not reduced now, the gases responsible for climate change will keep rising presenting an even bigger problem in future (Sagan & Chyba 1997). Plans to help us adapt to climate change must be put in place now. Waiting for any longer will increase of implementing such problems in the future. If these plans are implemented now, their cost could be cut by half. Some of the ways of adaptation include
Forest management: some experts think that overharvesting forest contributes significantly to climate change. Forests are often harvested for wood and charcoal in some areas. forests in such cases become the source of green house gasses. In an ideal situation, they should absorb these gasses.
Transition to bio-fuels: man should move to the cleaner sources of energy like bio-fuels. Use of this form of energy should be increased gradually to avoid over depletion of these resources.
Modification of current systems: countries should find methods of adapting their agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors to the new changes.
Conclusion
This paper has analyzed climate change with relation current and future effects. This analysis centered on how it will affect an individual’s life and career in the future. The effects of climate are already being felt in regions. More devastating effects of climate change are expected to come in the near future. Some of the effects it will have on Earth include change of rainfall patterns, storms and flooding.
Risks associated this megatrend include loss of revenue, loss of reputation, loss of opportunities, starvation dehydration and illness. Some of the mitigation measures suggested in this paper include water conservation and close monitoring of weather patterns.
The risks associated with the climate change should be monitored against the mitigation measures over the next five years. Evaluation should be done after this period and appropriate measures taken. This may include redesigning the response systems.
References
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