COVID-19 has become an unprecedented event for many industries and required management to make rapid changes in order for their companies to survive. The coronavirus epidemic has caused a global humanitarian disaster affecting millions of people. The pandemic’s economic impact can be observed throughout industries, although it may be most evident in the consumer goods industry. Moreover, it showed some insufficiencies in the current forecasting practices that do not consider contingencies of unexpected events. In my opinion, the COVID-19 experience should affect the way the industry utilizes forecasting to ensure that businesses are prepared for disruptions.
The pandemic affected the behaviors of people and shifted their priorities, which was not in line with the pre-pandemic forecasts. Consumers are changing where they prefer to shop, what they purchase, and how much they spend at an unprecedented rate and scale. This requires forecasts to be produced faster to keep up with the rapid changes. Companies that act thoughtfully and quickly can create the resilience needed to withstand the storm and emerge stronger. Most yearly planning procedures take six to nine months to complete, but in-crisis planning must be completed in a fraction of that time. Furthermore, most yearly planning procedures do not need to account for the present level of uncertainty on the amount and duration of consumer behavior change. Considering the impact of the pandemic, I would suggest that industries adopt short-term forecasting techniques that would be prepared for several months ahead and that would allow changing strategies in case another significant disruption happens. Thus, the COVID-19 serves as an example of the need to change the current forecasting practices that the industry uses and adopt short-term strategies.