Abstract
The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a lasting impact on the global economy. The current state of the stock market reflects consumer behaviors and the industrial crisis. There is an evident income reduction among prospective customers, which affects their monetary capabilities and buying preferences. When it comes to production, companies have been forced to transition into online operations and cease any offline processes, which affects the economy at large and employees in particular. Businesses operating in the automotive, banking, and travel industries had to take the hardest hit and generate innovative solutions in order to stay afloat. While some sectors struggled, others have experienced a short-term rise in demand. The health and high tech industries are among the ones that have generated substantial profits during the pandemic. However, they still had to accommodate to a new business climate that required them to make changes in operations, supply chain management, liquidity projections, and brand development. Italy has served as an example of negligence in dealing with the pandemic. The Italian government has fallen victim to cognitive bias and, as a result, flawed decision making. Countries such as South Korea, China, Singapore, and Taiwan have demonstrated the efficiency that can be achieved in the continuous management of the COVID crisis. The United Arab Emirates is among the most successful countries in terms of dealing with the virus.
Introduction
The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the fragility of modern business models and business operation systems. Industrial production froze, employees were laid off, and the stock market has been the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis (Jones et al., 2020). There is no estimate to how long it is going to take for the import cycle to resume since production plants in China, South Korea, and numerous other countries have been inactive since January. Corporations design their operating capabilities and allocate their resources based on the presumption that there is going to be a state of normalcy (Craven et al., 2020). However, it is hard to predict what ‘normal’ will look like in the post COVID era. Businesses around the world have already faced the economic consequences of the pandemic and the imminent government restrictions associated with it. Apple, Starbucks, Nike, and a wide range of luxury fashion brands have closed a number of their shops with no end date in sight (Zaheer, 2020). Christine McCarthy, Disney’s Chief Financial Officer, admits that there is going to be a $175 million reduction in operating income (Yaffe-Bellany, D., 2020). Global economic growth faces numerous challenges related to the transformations enforced by the crisis management during COVId-19.
Big shifts in stock markets are a primary area of concern for most businesses and individuals since they have the power to affect business operations as well as individual savings accounts. The BBC report states that “the FTSE, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nikkei all saw huge falls as the number of Covid-19 cases grew” (Jones et al., 2020). Central banks have decreased their interest rates based on these numbers (Jones et al., 2020). Their goal is to encourage people to borrow money and regulate spending habits in order to avoid recession. Additionally, the COVID-19 restrictions have affected a number of businesses (Jones et al., 2020). As a result, many employees were laid off and the unemployment rates increased across major economies. Moreover, consumer confidence has dropped significantly since January (Naeem, 2020). All of these tribulations have had an immense effect on companies across the majority of industries.
Thriving Sectors
While numerous industries have suffered a blow as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, others have experienced short-term rise in demand. For example, the private jet companies have profited tremendously during the coronavirus crisis (Singh, 2020). Firstly, top executives chose private air travel for business trips and relocation. Secondly, major corporations in Asia and Europe have admitted to transport vital parts and critical products using private jets (Singh, 2020). Online retail businesses and food delivery services have experienced slight growth due to understandable reasons. According to a recent Forbes article, Chinese have exhibited “greater openness now to buying cars online as opposed to going to dealerships” (Singh, 2020). Contactless and digital services have increased in demand over the course of quarantine in various countries. Despite the disruption in supply chain management, health enterprises have profited from the high demand in pharmaceuticals, biotechnological devices, and equipment.
Automotive Industry and COVID-19
The automotive sector has faced various challenges before 2019, including rapidly changing customer demands, unstable political climates, CO2 penalties and a range of other issues. The spread of the novel coronavirus has had a lasting effect on business operations in the industry. Unexpected market changes make it difficult to make accurate projections about the timeline of automotive companies’ recovery (Accenture, 2020). Some of the key challenges related to the automotive sector are connected with the disrupted value chain as the result of the pandemic.
For instance, since the majority of enterprises in the industry heavily rely on just-in-time production, the virus has immediately affected the sector’s existing supply chains. Most of the suppliers, and therefore, a large portion of the global production was affected by the Chinese industrial shutdown (Accenture, 2020). According to the survey, companies in the automotive industry have decided to act immediately and collected necessary data using intelligent systems in order to adjust accordingly to the shortages in the supply chain (Lienert, 2020). In order to operate with more agility, a lot of corporations set up their own crisis management centers. Smaller businesses chose to create command centers that generated responses to the emerging issues. Experts advise to “integrate risk mitigation workflows, scenarios and (response) protocols into daily operations to quickly switch from normal to disruption response if needed” after the initial crisis calms down (Accenture, 2020). All of these strategies have been shown to work effectively for big corporations and SMEs in the automotive sector.
Banking Industry and COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global humanitarian crisis in addition to the health consequences of it. Banks are now required to generate strategies for service continuity in order to remain agile and flexible during the quarantine (Carletti et al., 2020). Short-term impacts of the virus are primarily connected with the two key areas of banking operations. They include revenue compression and credit management.
When it comes to revenue compression, the global market value has fallen lower than during the 2008 economic crisis in the first few weeks of the international COVID-19 outbreak. This has occurred due to the fact that major bank executives decided to act upon short-term market predictions (Accenture, 2020). They have factored in revenue compression from “lower net interest margins, a drop in payments revenue, and a decline in trade finance and cross-border payments” (Accenture, 2020). Furthermore, decreased business revenues and mass employee layoffs resulted in the lack of demand from consumers, which has, in turn, negatively affected the cashflow of many businesses. The amount of commercial non-performing loans has increased as companies struggle to make principal and interest payments (Carletti et al., 2020). According to the survey, banks have taken necessary steps to mitigate this process by extending credit and digitizing to make the refinancing procedures easier. Some banking enterprises have also decided to initiate multiple credit modification programs (Accenture, 2020). The aforementioned strategies have helped banks to manage the crisis in terms of revenue compression and credit management.
Consumer Goods Industry and COVID-19
The spread of the coronavirus has led to numerous changes in consumer behaviors, which means that customers have transformed how and what they buy. This has had a lasting impact on the structural basis of the consumer goods industry. Even before the crisis, consumer preferences have begun to shift and become more environmentally and health sensitive (Accenture, 2020). The main challenge for the companies operating in retail and consumer goods production is to stay relevant by providing customers with the product or service they want using a method they prefer. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a major channel shift towards eCommerce, which led to the acceleration of online shopping and the popularization of the buy-local phenomenon (Accenture, 2020). Since consumer behaviors have started to transform, it is now more important than ever for consumer goods enterprises to focus on health, experiences, and a strong sense of community in their products. As for the internal operations, the enforcement of virtual working due to mandatory quarantine and social distancing regulations has transformed the workplace ecosystem relationships (Accenture, 2020). Companies had to provide their employees with the most effective ways to work on projects and communicate exclusively online. The drastic changes in the supply chain required consumer goods businesses to generate strategies that would allow them to sense consumer demands in an unstable market.
There are multiple effective trajectories that ensure consumer goods enterprises manage the COVID-19 crisis to the best of their ability and come out stronger as a result. Firstly, they need to optimize their current operations, including setting up a command center that would control KPIs, creating a digital workplace center, and making changes in terms of marketing in accordance to new consumer demands (Accenture, 2020). According to the survey, a lot of retail and production companies have started to prioritize eCommerce sales and reallocate their resources in order to ensure flexible and timely manufacturing. It is evident that companies operating in the consumer goods sector need to reinvent themselves and present a new business model for the post COVID era (Accenture, 2020). In order to do that, they have to assess vast amounts of data and scan markets for emerging opportunities.
High Tech Industry and COVID-19
It is apparent that high tech companies will suffer less from the workforce climate shift since most of the businesses operating in the industry are well equipped for remote work and digital communication. However, technology enterprises have struggled with the manufacturing and assembly timelines due to the lags in supply chain management and strict government regulations that have frozen some crucial industrial plants. Moreover, travel bans and various local restrictions (social distancing) have had an impact on consumer demand and workforce shortages. On the one hand, the rising power of digitalization during the pandemic has positively affected the demand for high tech services (Accenture, 2020). However, on the other hand, the internal infrastructure of high tech production companies has suffered from the challenges imposed by quarantine and government restrictions on business operations. Therefore, there is an expected, long-term increase in demand for semiconductors and enterprise technology (Accenture, 2020). Communications and network equipment is going to experience a short-term demand shift. Recession and income reduction will affect the demand for consumer technology in a negative way. Experts note that the shift is going to be short-term, meaning the impact on long-term demand will be minimal (Wigglesworth, 2020). Each category of high tech production is different, which explains why companies need to look on their individual supply chains and make appropriate changes.
Short-term changes in operations may include dynamic transformations in supply chain, demand, and workforce management. The supply chain can be transformed through dynamic sourcing, data-based demand planning, improving supply stability, and reinventing inventory flow paths (Accenture, 2020). As for the demand, cashflow and capital can be managed using AI-backed technologies. High tech companies can manage demand planning and segmentation by data-driven scenario modelling (Wigglesworth, 2020). In order to make the workforce more flexible and agile, executives can invest in technologies that help employees shift to new ways of collaborating and working.
Travel Industry and COVID-19
The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has had various effects on the travel industry, which presented a call to action for executives to ensure the survival of their organizations during government restrictions and relocation bans. The travel sector has experienced an unprecedented fall in demand due to the closure of borders prompted by the sheer pace of coronavirus spread (Foo et al., 2020). Hotels, airlines, and cruises are among the ones affected by the mandatory quarantine. The recovery for the air travel crisis will end only when such travel is judged safe. Therefore, airlines’ operations depend singularly on each country’s efforts to battle the spread of COVID. The travel corporations have started to work closely with politicians to create the demand for safer and more resilient travel in the post COVID era.
The main task of most travel companies is to assure public safety and communicate important messages regarding travel regulations to the general public. In order to ensure traveler confidence and long-term public health safety, airports have incorporated health screenings that are most likely to continue into the post COVID era (Gradek, 2020). The case of the COVID-19 is likely to put long-term regulations on travel enterprises’ operations. For example, there may be a mandatory policy for all travel agencies to “plan for the expectation that it will seamlessly coordinate a response and communicate corrective actions to customers” in the event of crisis (Accenture, 2020). As for employment, companies operating in the ravel sector might be expected to have plans in place that allow employees to switch positions and work remotely in order to minimize layoffs.
How UAE Handled the Pandemic
The United Arab Emirates has been among the most proactive countries that started numerous initiatives to battle the impact of the novel coronavirus. The government’s response was strategic and well-organized because the government acted in accordance to the advice given by the World Health Organization. While some countries decided to take the path of denial and others struggled with managing the outbreak, the UAE government took crucial steps to minimize the negative effects of COVID-19 (Siddiquei & Khan, 2020). In fact, the government officials integrated cautionary measures, even before the WHO announcement that coronavirus is a global pandemic, which happened on 11 March (Kazemi, 2020). Such measures included closing all schools on 8 March by preponing the spring holidays as well as advising voluntary isolation to its citizens (Kazemi, 2020). Moreover, they also put regulations on office hours and shopping mall working hours in order to minimize the cases for COVID-19. All the conferences were asked to be put on hold, while the majority of educational and training facilities were closed. The metro and tram transportation was halted due to the threat of the epidemic’s outbreak through public transport. Therefore, it is evident that the United Arab Emirates has demonstrated an outstanding level of organization and precaution even before the official announcements by WHO.
The UAE government’s response included even more strict measures after COVID-19 was pronounced a global pandemic. The policy makers introduced social distancing regulations, mandatory 24 hour lockdowns, and numerous police check points in order to ensure residents of big cities comply with the new restrictions (Siddiquei & Khan, 2020). The government established a permit system that allowed people to leave their house to buy food, medicine, and other essentials. Such permits ensured that front line professionals were as safe as possible on their way to work. People had to leave the house wearing a mask and gloves in order to minimize the spread of the disease (Kazemi, 2020). The UAE was also among the first countries in Western Asia that enforced disinfection campaigns in Dubai.
The government understood the importance of communication with its citizens. As a result, all the necessary information regarding the spread of COVID-19 and the mandatory regulations had been shared through various official channels in both Arabic and English (Kamil, 2020). For instance, Dubai residents were informed that there would be mandatory testing in congested areas. As a result of these testing drives and drive-through testing centers around the city, “the UAE as per Worldometer website is number 3 in the world for its highest number of COVID-19 tests conducted per million of population” (Kazemi, 2020). The outcome of effective communication with citizens has been outstanding since UAE residents experienced the shift from normalcy to the pandemic in a well-adjusted manner with little to no panic.
Businesses have been drastically affected by the COVID-19 pandemic because of all the cancelled events, mandatory lockdowns, and restricted trading. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have faced the hardest hit due to the fact that such companies do not often have enough financial resources to make savings or hire a crisis management expert (Siddiquei & Khan, 2020). Therefore, it is apparent that UAE economy experienced a downfall since “the SME sector represents more than 98 per cent of the total number of companies operating in the UAE and contributes towards 52 percent of the non-oil GDP” (Kazemi, 2020). The majority of UAE-based organizations had to send their employees on paid leave, while some needed to ask workers to agree to salary reductions. A small percentage of companies had to terminate their employees due to their lack of resources, which demonstrated the financial impact of COVID-19 (Siddiquei & Khan, 2020). The response from the government included the creation of the consolidated online platform for people to find new jobs. The Emirates’ regulators asked organizations to post their job openings using a Virtual Labor Market Portal. This initiative, however, had been limited to UAE residents only. Additionally, the UAE government provided businesses with stimulus packages that allowed companies to reduce their operating costs up to 25-98% (Kazemi, 2020). The support from the government in the United Arab Emirates has been detrimental to keeping the economy as stable as possible and ensuring the pandemic’s negative effects were minimized.
Almost every major sector of UAE’s economy has experienced transformation over the course of the pandemic. The country was affected greatly by the cancellation of Expo 2020. Fortunately, the event has been postponed to 2021 (Kazemi, 2020). Fashion, tourism, and food industries faced the biggest challenges due to governmental regulations and overall salary decrease (Siddiquei & Khan, 2020). The insurance sector in the Emirates has experienced slight growth because most of healthcare provision in the country is private. However, the government announced that if the person is tested positive for COVID-19, their insurance would be covered (Kazemi, 2020). Additionally, UAE officials reduced the prices of utility services to decrease the impact on business owners trying to survive the economic decline. Furthermore, the National Program for Happiness and Wellbeing offered free services to any person who felt psychologically overwhelmed by the implications of dealing with the virus and quarantine (Kazemi, 2020). All of the aforementioned initiatives of the government and individual employers have had a lasting impact on the economy and helped the residents of UAE to adjust to the realities of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The case of the United Arab Emirates proves that coronavirus could help unite people and create a unified front to battle the outcomes of the pandemic. Employers make use of the help and resources provided by the government in order to save as many jobs as possible. Non-governmental organizations, volunteer centers, and individual citizens develop free webinars and coaching. Big corporations facilitate important changes in business by providing SMEs with free consulting and expertise regarding crisis management and dynamic capabilities companies need during unstable times.
Lessons from Italy
Italian economy has been affected tremendously by the spread of the novel coronavirus due to a number of reasons, including the lack of precautionary measures taken by the government and the overall neglect of safety measures by the public. Simona Varella (2020) has analyzed vast amounts of data and business intelligence and concluded that roughly 99% of all companies operating in Italy has experienced major negative effects of the pandemic’s outbreak at the end of winter. The accommodation and food sectors were among those that had to deal with the most challenges due to travel bans and mandatory quarantine. Transportation and storage industries were also affected for the same exact reasons. Italy has initially been an example of skepticism from both the officials and the public because the government underestimated the impact of COVID-19 and failed to comply with WHO recommendations (Booth, 2020). However, the country is determined to minimize the number of coronavirus cases and start rebuilding its economy.
There are numerous lessons that can be learnt from Italy’s response to the pandemic. These insights can be applied by other countries in terms of virus management and market assessment. Europe and the United States could follow the example of Asian countries such as South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan (Kim, 2020; Tsou et al., 2020). However, the majority of these countries battled the virus at its infancy and stifled the pandemic before any major outbreaks happened. It is already too late for America and Europe to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Instead, governments can learn a lot from looking at Italy and its failed policies in terms of COVID-19 management.
Firstly, the majority of Italy’s problems originated after some effective models for the virus’ containment were put in place in China and a number of neighboring countries (Kim, 2020; Tsou et al., 2020). Therefore, it is evident that Italian authorities systematically failed to acknowledge the crisis and made a lot of wrong decisions (Booth, 2020). Italy’s issues do not amount to one decision or one specific action. The country’s current state as one of the leaders in the number of COVID-19 cases demonstrates the leaders’ failure to act upon existing information related to the effective management of the virus’ spread.
The cognitive bias in Italy is reflective of the public’s inability to follow the regulations that the policymakers themselves have no trust in. Even though several scientific channels and numerous healthcare organizations have been warning about the virus in January, Italy’s state-of-emergency debates were met with disdain and neglect from the majority of politicians (Booth, 2020). Other countries experienced similar reactions from officials and the general public due to the phenomenon that is known as ‘confirmation bias.’ It refers to people’s “tendency to seize upon information that confirms our preferred position or initial hypothesis” (Pisano et al., 2020). The pandemic is initially a small problem. If there are no cases, it is possible to contain the spread of the virus by taking strong action. However, if the intervention is successful, it will seem that the strong action taken by the government has been an overreaction. Therefore, it is safe to assume that in order to contain the spread of the virus and manage the economic implications associated with the pandemic at the same time, it is crucial for governments to conduct independent research and listen to experts in regards to the scientific data about the pandemic’s current state and future projections.
Secondly, it is important for other governments to look out for systematic solutions and avoid partial approaches that were taken by Italian authorities. Italy dealt with the pandemic crisis by “issuing a series of decrees that gradually increased restrictions within lockdown areas (“red zones”), which were then expanded until they ultimately applied to the entire country” (Pisano et al., 2020). This approach backfired due to its inconsistency. The exponential spread of the COVID-19 required the Italian government not only to assess the real-time numbers but act upon the scientific projections. Italy followed the spread of the coronavirus instead of focusing its resources on trying to contain it by taking a long-term, systematic approach. Moreover, Italy decided on a selective solution that put some regions under lockdown, and not others (Pisano et al., 2020). As a result, after ‘closing off’ northern Italy, a massive exodus appeared in southern Italy, which has inevitably led to the rapid spread of the disease.
Italy’s partial solutions demonstrate that it is better for governments to make coherent decisions that can be applied simultaneously. The effective responses of countries like China and South Korea are an example of success in containing the virus by creating a system that would include a multitude of actions (Kim, 2020; Tsou et al., 2020). While it is important to acknowledge China’s extensive testing, it would not work without the combination of contact tracing and effective communication from the officials, both of which are crucial to gaining more information about the movement of potentially infected individuals. Italy lacked coordinated actions, which had inadvertently affected people, businesses, and the economy as a whole.
Companies are affected by the market tribulations, which are the result of people’s financial capabilities and consumer behavior. Customers are more likely to go back to normal life and making their ordinary purchases after the lockdown if their country of residence is not very affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, businesses are interested in the government’s successful battle with the virus and potential minimization of deaths because business operations are more likely to go back to normal if people are not in constant panic and chaos. Italy failed to suggest a centralized approach for the different regions, which is why areas with relatively similar socioeconomic background that were located near each other had drastically different numbers of those infected (and dead) (Pisano et al., 2020). All of the aforementioned mistakes have affected Italy and its economy, and therefore, had a lasting effect on business operations all throughout the country. In order to prevent such drastic economic tribulations, international companies and government structures need to reflect on Italian experience with COVID-19 and optimize different strategies to deal with the pandemic.
The main issue with Italian businesses during the spread of the virus and the integration of quarantine into their day-to-day operations is flawed decision making. Firstly, all the major decisions need to be systematic and quick. There is no time to waste due to the fast progression of the virus. Secondly, an effective battle with the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on operations implies immediate mobilization and coordination of resources, both material (finances) and human. Therefore, SMEs around the world need to educate themselves on the mistakes in Italy and the successes in Southeast Asia. They have to abandon their usual ways pf doing business and focus on optimization, digitalization, and proper crisis management.
Business Strategies to Overcome the Pandemic Crisis
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve and creates new challenges for businesses that want to return to work. Companies are required to mobilize all the available resources in order to optimize the gradual shift from one work environment to the other. They also need to have the necessary capabilities to generate long-term strategies that would allow them to remain stable during any future transformations and unexpected occurrences. PwC Global identifies six key areas of improvement for businesses dealing with the pandemic. They include crisis management, workforce, operations, finance, trade, and brand mitigation.
When it comes to crisis management, it is necessary for every business entity to develop a special unit or task force in order to prevent chaos in dealing with emergencies. Big corporations usually deploy a team of trained crisis managers, whereas SMEs struggle to include such professionals into their budgets. However, even for large enterprises, COVID-19 has brought a set of challenges that crisis management teams were not prepared for (PwC, 2020). The companies that immediately developed strategic plans specific to COVID are the ones that managed to move forward during the pandemic and avoid unnecessary employee layoffs. They mobilized their response frameworks in order to facilitate immediate action in the transition period (PwC, 2020). Most importantly, managers identified the areas for correction, which helped the teams optimize their operations and capitalize on it. The PwC (2020) article suggests that employers prioritize the initiatives that would help to support and protect their employees. Companies that succeeded during the crisis had the ability to keep their workers informed and productive through a well-developed communication network. Businesses, therefore, have to assess their human resources and develop appropriate strategies to optimize the allocation of such resources for the future recovery.
The long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are hard to assess, but both big corporations and SMEs can start the process of supply chain mitigation. Companies can do that by identifying alternative scenarios for supply chain management and planning for raw-material substitutions (PwC, 2020). They also need to be able to adapt their pricing strategies to shifting markets and consumer behaviors. Lower revenues related to the pandemic result in less cash flow for the majority of business across different industries (PwC, 2020). Therefore, it is crucial for them to manage their liquidity positions by modeling and revising cash-flow scenarios and identifying “the financial and operational levers that can be pulled to conserve and generate cash, and potentially increase access to funding” (PwC, 2020). In the post COVID era, companies will have to assess their prospects for tax reduction and other measures of monetary relief.
In order to make informed decisions that help the business move forward, executives need to navigate the regulatory systems in an uncertain economy of 2020. They have to consider local authorities and tax-imposing institutions in order to manage taxes and potentially obtain refunds. There is a need for SMEs to assess their resources, which would help them meet their ongoing tax compliance requirements (PwC, 2020). Businesses that are going to thrive after the pandemic is over are the ones that have the capabilities to explore new opportunities to become more agile and flexible in responding to new crises and external challenges. The shift to remote working presents a set of implications for companies to sustain their internal image among employees (PwC, 2020). Therefore, HR departments have to generate innovative strategies to create an immersive work environment. The marketing teams, on the other hand, need to focus on external brand development and building customer loyalty. They can manage that by using data in order to make projections about consumer behavior and core market preferences.
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