The selected forecasting method is the Delphi method, which is “a process used to arrive at a group opinion or decision by surveying a panel of experts” (Twin, 2021, para. 2). It can be used in such cases as forecasting market trends, market capacity, consumer demand for certain goods and services, competitive market situation, and the prospects of ideas put forward. The Delphi method refers to the expert forecasting method since the main participants in this method are experts. Experts can be business leaders from different industries and spheres of activity, middle managers, and specialists such as economists, engineers, technologists, and marketers.
In sum, the Delphi method focuses primarily on experts, who usually respond to a series of rounds of questionnaires, where the replies and reflections are distributed among the professionals after the completion of each round (Twin, 2021). Under the given framework, the collective opinion or knowledge influences the answers of experts for each consecutive round (Twin, 2021). In the end, a true consensus can be achieved since there is an element of reciprocity and information sharing. It should be noted that at present, enterprise managers can conduct effective economic activity only on the basis of forecasting economic phenomena using qualitative methods.
However, in the face of increasing competition, any leader must also use quantitative forecasting methods because knowledge of such methods allows one to obtain significant advantages during the period of gaining a certain market share. Therefore, the study of quantitative methods is no less relevant than qualitative ones. Thus, quantitative methods mean a quantitative assessment of the future state of the phenomena under study based on data from previous periods using mathematical methods.
Reference
Twin, A. (2021). Delphi method. Investopedia. Web.