Introduction
The success of a new Democratic candidate in the 2008 Florida District 8 was highly attributed to the Democratic wave. The rising tide of anger against Republicans and then-President George Bush was seen as a major factor in the elections in this district. Alan Grayson emerged the winner after narrowly beating the incumbent, Ric Keller of the Republican Party. The freshman’s success was attributed to Obama’s presidential candidature.
Many have argued that there is no presidential election to repeat what happened in the previous election. Grayson lacks the benefit of a long tenure in office as an incumbent and little skill in fundraising. However, according to the recent reports, he has the desired name recognition more than any other candidate from the Republican Party, in addition to some strong record of accomplishments. The paper focuses on the 2010 election in Florida’s District 8, which Republicans lost to Democrats during the 2008 elections. Democrats got the opportunity to increase their presence in a state that is historically inclined towards Democrats. Republican officials have made their intentions clear that they will be fielding a stronger candidate against Grayson. Todd Long and Patricia Sullivan have been mentioned several times as the likely Republican candidates. Sullivan is favored due to her many year’s involvements in GOP activism.
The socio-economic and recent political history of Florida’s District 8
The Florida District 8 is overpopulated by about eleven percent. The average economic status of the people is modest because many still live an average income with little to save.
Florida District 8 has traditionally been inclined towards Republican Party or conservatives, who have the desire to maintain the status quo (Martis 126). Recent political history suggests that Florida’s District 8th has transformed itself into a liberal district, from the traditional conservative it was associated with in the past (Tydings 41). This was evidenced by the 52% Obama win in the 2008 presidential elections. The incumbent was Ric Keller, who had occupied the seat after being elected for the first time in 2001. However, in the October 2008 elections, Keller was strongly challenged by Alan Grayson, a Democratic nominee who captured the seat in what turned out to be the closest contest since 2001. While some observers cite the fact that registered Democratic voters have increased in number in the District, others have maintained that the increased number of democratic leaning voters was as a result of the Democratic presidential candidate’s wave against anti-Bush administration. In 2006, Grayson, a war profiteers prosecutor failed to get the Democratic ticket to challenge Keller, allowing Charlie Stuart to unsuccessfully wrestle the incumbent. However, his loss was narrow (6% point).
Among the representative candidates, it was expected in 2008 that Keller, the then incumbent, would honor his promise of serving only four terms. However, as things turned out, Keller changed his mind and contested again, giving the Republican Party primary election contenders opportunity to attack him as one who cannot keep his promises. This notably weakened the party position as many Republican contenders did not feel like supporting Keller in the elections even after he was nominated as the Republican Party flag bearer. Significantly, this gave the Democratic candidate Alan Grayson managed to wage a successful contest against the Republicans (Gilpatrick & Bousquet 1). This explains why many Republican voters voted for a Democratic candidate rather than their own Republican candidate.
Key votes and speeches/articles by the incumbent 2009/2010
Alan Grayson delivered a “die quickly speech”, where he accused the Republicans’ healthcare plan of acting like they are pushing for a plan that states, “if you get sick, America, the Republican health-care plan is this: Die quickly!” (Cotterell 2).
Republican Party Criticisms, media Reactions and voter surveys
The Republicans on the other hand have painted Grayson as “a far–left pinko” (Cotterell 2). The Republican congressional candidates are engaged in a new wave of war against the incumbent, Alan Grayson. Grayson is a freshman in the congress but boasts of having brought a lot of federal money to his district. The issues at stake are unemployment and healthcare to the people of district 8th. While the media reactions to the speech were quick and critical, Grayson apologized to the families of the dead and insisted that his comments were not offensive at all.
Alan Grayson believes that he will win the next elections. His argument is based on a poll he commissioned by his campaign team that showed that he can win over slightly over 25% of the registered Republican voters. According to that poll, none of the Republican won by 11% of the Republican votes, making Grayson believes that he would win even the Republican ticket in the primary polls (New York Post 15). However, it must be noted that a massive 41.8% of the registered Republican voters have not decided on where to cast their votes. Some analysts believe that these people are likely to lean towards their party as a matter of party loyalty. Moreover, the fact that President Bush who ignited hatred among the voters over his policies, is not in the active political space anymore.
However, Republicans too face a daunting task in the primary battle for the Republican Party ticket. The likely Republican candidates are led by Todd Long. Others are “a seasoned fundraiser Armando Gutierrez Junior, Patricia Sullivan, Dan Fanelli, Kevin Butler, Peg Dunmire, Prince Brown, Steve Gerritzen, Kurt Kelly Bruce O’Donoghue, and Terrence Tysall Sr” (Kapochunas 8). It is mooted that Todd Long is likely to emerge the winner, although he faces the strongest challenge from Patricia Sullivan. According to many observers, Sullivan is very aggressive in every speaking event.
Analysis of the Forthcoming elections for the Districts 8
Republicans have hinted that their next move would be to ensure they win back the two seats they lost to Democrats. According to the chairman of the Florida Republican Party, Jim Greer, the party intends to ensure a stronger candidate is endorsed to face the democratic candidates in Florida’s District 8 (Kapochunas 9). According to reports from the Republican analysts, the national campaign committees were the ones who got mostly concerned with House races, leaving the state party committees with little role to play in the final campaign issues (Kapochunas 9). This strategy failed to work as the national campaign committee did little to penetrate grass root people during the campaign period. Democrats on the other hand concentrated on the deeper part of the regions and left no stone unturned. Party analysts agree that there was “a little bit of disconnect between the national campaigners and congress campaigners” hence the unfilled gap in the campaign strategy (Kapochunas 10).
There is a possibility that Republicans will elect either Todd Long or Patricia Sullivan, the co-founder of North Lake Tea Party. Either way, it is it must be acknowledged that Grayson is wealthy and so far has used his position and status to raise up to $1.5 million. He raised more campaign funds more than any other candidate in the whole county, giving him an upper hand in penetrating the grass-root just like he did in 2008.
Sullivan has been quoted several times insisting on the need to strengthen the local people, not federal government. She was named “Volunteer of the Year” in 2007, making him one of the few people who have been acknowledged for their youth initiatives (Janda & Berry 58). She has been involved with Florida State 4-H Youth Development Program for over 8 years. Her youth involvement has given her advantage against other Republican candidates. I would not be surprised if Sullivan beat Todd Long in the Republican primaries, given her intensive and vigorous campaigns.
The National Congressional Committee (NRCC) did express their disapproval of Grayson especially on issues that concerned economic stimulus as well as the federal budget legislation that was supported by the Barack Obama administration. With the much-publicized stimulus packages disapproved by the people of Florida District 8, the next elections may be difficult to predict, given the history of the region. It is also believed that many of the voters in this region favored the Democratic candidates after intense campaigns by the grass-root supporters and the ability to organize fundraisings that became the political war machines for them. Practically, this is not likely to repeat itself given the single congressional elections without the presidential elections involved.
Conclusion
However, Grayson as a Democratic candidate is still very popular among the Republicans. It is also noted that Republicans have not identified a candidate face Grayson, even though Patricia Sullivan is favored to carry the Republican flag. Meanwhile, Grayson enjoys the advantage of name recognition in these campaigns more than any other likely candidate. According to the polls, about 76% of Republicans know Grayson. This works to the advantage of Democrats and he is likely to pull another win in this much-coveted District. Another advantage for Grayson is the liberal voters in Orlando, who are inclined towards the democrats. Grayson’s strength is in his Constitution initiatives. More than a half of the Republicans have recognized Grayson’s Constitutional initiative, where he has urged that the High school syllabus should include Constitution, so as students may be more conversant with the constitution. He has even distributed the document throughout the District for people to gain access. Grayson is therefore likely to emerge as the ultimate winner.
Works Cited
- Cotterell, Bill. “Ron Saunders barely picked Florida House Minority Leader.” New Press 2009: 2-4. Web.
- Gilpatrick, Breanne & Bousquet, Steve. “Key West’s Ron Saunders to be House Democratic Leader”. Miami Herald 2009: 1-2. Print.
- Janda, Kenneth & Berry, Jeffrey. The Challenge of Democracy 2008 Update: Government in America. New York: Cengage Learning, 2007. Print.
- Kapochunas, Rachael. “Florida GOP Chairman Targets Freshmen Grayson and Kosmas”. CQ Politics 2009. Print.
- Martis, Kenneth. The Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress. New York: Macmillan Publishing Company, 1989. Print.
- New York Post. “U.S. House, Florida, District 24”. New York Post Online 2008. Web.
- Tydings, Millard. Political Science: Congressional Record. Washington DC: Government Printing Office, 2005. Print.