Low voter’s turn-out usually leads to unequal socio economic implications. This in turn translates to partisan policy implications. In Ireland when the socio-demographic differences broaden, parties support decreases, pulling party policy and competition to the right hence resulting in the decline of voting patterns within the people of working class. In comparison with the European countries Ireland appeared to fare badly considering the election turnout; the average turnout during the general elections happened to reach only slightly above 70 percent since the year 1970, but presenting a new low with 63 percent during 2002 election. Working class voters in Ireland are abstaining from voting due to various attributes but mainly due to poor performance of their traditional political parties.
In Northern Ireland working class areas, both in Catholic and Protestant ones, there is growing disillusionment with all political parties. In these areas many people decline to vote viewing all the political parties as similar due to awarding themselves salary increments and also left-wing parties adopting right wing policies, for example, the Labour party. The overall turnout, 63.1% – down from about 69% – was very low for Northern Ireland where voting tends to be high.
According to Gray (2000), the cross section analysis of 18 industrial democratic lands between 1950 and 1997 offered the idea that voter’s turnout decrease can be explained regarding changing patterns of electorate demographics and group mobilization. There is a marked pattern of unions and labor parties decline, which has traditionally been connected with the real increases in the cost of mobilization and the mobilization of peripheral voters on one hand and the decline of the voter’s turnout in their area of impact among the voters of the working class.
As it was noted by Kavanagh (2006), other reasons advanced for the decline of voting patterns in the working class, appeared due to the creation of a welfare state. This has undermined the process of voting, by dividing the working class from its usual protectors and leaders to reliance for subsidies on the state. In such welfare societies, trade unions benefits flowed to votes and members in requisite from the members to the benefactors. When these underprivileged classes of voters started to get their welfare cheques, unions had less power or latitude to influence them as to the way of voting or even to compel them to get into the ballot box. The welfare stipend makes them less dependent upon favours from the traditional mobilizers like the Unions who usually had their political preferences and allegiances.
Voter decrease is especially dominating among the unemployed class. This is also due to the lack of acute dependency on the job market on the same traditional power brokers. The potential voter hence becomes independent in his/her own opinion. The unemployed are no longer collectively mobilized to have the same economic interests and opinions making them vote in a certain way. They now can afford to decline and have apathy to voting believing that their one vote will not make any difference.
The trend is more marked among the youth while the older generation tends to turn out more to vote. ‘An International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (1999) study found that the Republic of Ireland had one of the lowest turnout rates in Western Europe for young voters, and had the lowest turnout rate amongst European Union countries for first time voters in the 18-29 age categories.’ (Kavanagh, 2006)
The economic status of the populace has a major influence on the voting patterns. However, lack of strong left-wing parties capable of mobilising working class voters generally results in much lower voter turnout rates in some areas. Similarly, housing tenure is found to have a bearing on turnout propensity with turnouts generally higher among landlords/home owners as opposed to people living in rented housing either council or private.
Owner occupiers may feel they have a stake in the community and hence are more motivated to participate in political decision making that will affect their communities and vice versa on the tenants. The class divide is evident by recent research on Irish voter turnout levels which finds, that all these ‘class related factors have significant influence on the ‘geography” of turnouts within Dublin and other large urban areas, however there is no strong evidence that class influences impact significantly on levels in rural areas.’ (Kavanagh, 2002b)
Conclusion
Low and waning election turnout is commonly viewed as indicative of worrying trends in democratic politics. Whenever everyone votes there can be no socio-demographic bias in turnout and in the political representation of the citizen’s preferences. Michael Marsh (2006) Ireland declining voter turnout may be attributed to; in part the disillusionment on of voters by their traditional political parties, the decline of the trade unions influences on the working class, the rise of the welfare state whereby state stipend guarantee meal ticket, the nationalization and construction of industries hence increasing job prospects and further eroding the influence of the trade unions.
Lastly, there is a lack of left-wing parties capable of mobilizing the working class. In conclusion it should be stressed that there is some evidence stating that turnout effects might go through just into political outcomes. Thus, for example, improved support for parties of the left leads to higher welfare spending turn and state interventions in labor markets and in the macro-economy. (Castles and McKinlay 1979; Hicks and Swank 1992; Hill, Leighley and Hinton-Andersson 1995).The turnout of the low voter ultimately restricts the elections ability of reflecting national preferences; and electoral arena may provide different people with various degrees of political impact, even in case of all citizens’ formal equality before the law can be rigorously upheld (Tóka 2002, 5).
References
Brian Micklethwait (2005) Voting decline and the two welfare states UK affairs. Web.
Declining Voter Turnout in Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1950 to 1997 the Effects of Declining Group Mobilization Mark Gray of California, Irvine. Web.
Dr. Adrian Kavanagh (2007) Second order elections and the Republic of Ireland: A spatial perspective on turnout differences between the 2002 General Election and 2004 local elections.
Dr. Adrian Kavanagh (2006) Second order elections and the Republic of Ireland: A spatial perspective on turnout differences between the 2002 General Election and 2004 local elections – Dr. Adrian Kavanagh.
Michael Marsh (2006) Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in the 2002 Irish General Election, Paper prepared for EPOP annual conference Nottingham.
Nora Owen (2008) Complacency is a threat to true democracy (Irish Times).
Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in the 2002 Irish General Election by Michael Marsh – Paper prepared for EPOP annual conference Nottingham.
Pat Lyons & Richard Sinnott, (2006) Voter Turnout in the Republic of Ireland,( New York, Prentice Hall).
The 2007 General Election in the Republic of Ireland: A Geographical Study by Adrian Kavanagh, Department of Geography, NUI Maynooth Research associate of National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis (NUIM), National Centre for Geocomputation.
“Voters, Parties, Pacts in Western Europe” Kerstin Hemman and John Kelly Paper prepared for 15th International Conference for European Studies, Chicago, IL.